SANDOWN – MAY 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £62.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (5.55): 4 (Grizzel), 1 (Bithynia) & 5 (Madame Bounty)
Leg 2 (6.25): 3 (City Of Ideas) & 4 (October Storm)
Leg 3 (6.55): 5 (Sky Ship), 3 (Defrocked) & 4 (Shaan)
Leg 4 (7.30): 3 (New Caledonia), 4 (Primitivo) & 2 (Combative)
Leg 5 (8.00): 13 (Shabeeb) & 11 (Penary)
Leg 6 (8.35): 4 (Danilovna) & 5 (Forest Lakes)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.55: ’Team Hannon’ have saddled four of the last 13 winners of this opening event (see favourite details for complete explanation), even though Richard was not represented last year). Richard has offered the green light to his Kodiac newcomer GRIZZEL, though this is very much a guessing game with so many leading stables involved. Accordingly, I can only offer tentative chances to the likes of BITHYNIA (Hugo Palmer), MADAME BOUNTY (Ed Walker) and WHITELY (Mick Channon) and even then, mainly because of the decent Sandown records of trainers with juveniles down the years (see Sandown overview at the bottom of the analysis). For the record in general terms (in case you thought I had forgotten), there are no course winners on parade in the first five races on the Sandown card.
Favourite factor: This is deemed as a new race now that the previous maiden event has been elevated to 'Novice status'.
6.25: All eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-9 which eliminates the bottom four horses in the handicap. CITY OF IDEAS is not one of the leading lights back at the ranch but as the only John Gosden raider on the card, the Dansili colt is the first name on the team sheet, especially with 'Frankie' booked to ride. Connection will probably fear OCTOBER STORM and RASASEE more than Harbour Law who is asked to give upwards of ten pounds to all seven rivals on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Ten of the sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.
6.55: Six of the nine winners (there was dead heat twelve months ago) have carried 9-4 or more, with SKY SHIP, DEFROCKED and SHAAN expected to lead the fourteen strong field home. SKY SHIP receives three pounds from the other pair which could make all the difference at the business end of proceedings. Not too many days have passed of late when Sir Michael Stoute has failed to saddle a winner when represented.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the eight renewals to date, though only one of the other four market leaders additionally secured a toteplacepot position.
7.30: Nine of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of nine stones or more, whilst winning favourites had only been conspicuous by their absence until scoring in each of the last two years. The pick of this year’s four qualifiers via the weight trend (four horses having been discarded) should prove to be NEW CALEDONIA, PRIMITIVO and COMBATIVE. Alan King (PRIMITIVO) has been saddling regular winners under both codes of late and his Excellent Art gelding might have yielding conditions in his favour by the time flag fall arrive if weather forecasters have got their act together. Showers (quite heavy and possibly thundery) are on the radar.
Favourite factor: Only six of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, with the 4/5 favourite in 2013 being one of the odds on casualties. That said, seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 9/4) favourites.
8.00: Fancied winners from leading stables win this event pure and simple, whilst three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5-2 to date. The score from a Placepot perspective (exact science) stands at 18-2 in favour of the younger set, albeit via 90% of the total number of runners. Vintage representatives account for 76% of the field this time around, the pick of which is SHABEEB, PENARY and Roger Varian's newcomer MORMILL from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites (three gold medallists and one each of the silver and bronze variety) have secured toteplacepot positions. A top priced winner of just 4/1 had emerged via the seven contests to date.
8.35: Three-year-olds have won all ten renewals of this toteplacepot finale with six of this nine strong field representing the vintage this time around. You might not believe me but a four-year-old was returned as the 10/11 favourites twelve months ago when finishing out of the frame! Robins Pearl won the said event as a three-year-old but of course, I have to desert Harry Dunlop's raider for obvious reasons. The pick of the junior representatives this time around will hopefully prove to be DANILOVNA, FOREST LAKES and EJAYEEKAY. This is not the strongest bunch of three-year-olds that I have recommended down the years but that said, I have to adhere to my anorak tendencies.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 12 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners via nine renewals.
Sandown course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1--Robins Pearl (Good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Thursday:
3--Andrew Balding (20/153 at Sandown during the last five years)
3--Ralph Beckett (5/48)
3--Sir Michael Stoute (26/124)
3--Roger Varian (10/66)
2--Marco Botti (4/33)
2--Mick Channon (9/81)
2--Richard Hannon (17/134)
2--Alan King (0/11)
2--Hughie Morrison (4/22)
2--William Muir (6/30)
2--Amanda Perrett (6/46)
2--Ali Stronge (3/11)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Goodwood: £7.20 (8 favourites - 5 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Lingfield: £715.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Worcester: £80.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
New meeting - Ripon
Record of represented trainer in juvenile races during the last five years:
2/6--Hugo Palamer (Bithynia)
0/10--Ralph Beckett (Bletchley & Tropical Brook)
No relevant runners--Heather Main (Fair Selene)
9/51--Richard Hannon (Grizzel)
3/9--Ed Walker (Madame Bounty)
2/10--William Haggas (Naafer)
3/34--Andrew Balding (Night Law)
1/6--Sylvester Kirk (Simmie)
0/1--Martin Smith (Snoozy Sioux)
5/27--Mick Channon (Whitely)