SANDOWN – MAY 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £311.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (6.00): 10 (Silver Ghost), 4 (Boycie), 5 (Icebuster) & 12 (The Major)
Leg 2 (6.30): 5 (Sound And Silence), 2 (Frozen Angel) & 1 (Chagati)
Leg 3 (7.05): 5 (Vent de Force), 2 (Big Orange) & 4 (Higher Power)
Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (So Mi Dar) & 7 (Chain Of Daisies)
Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Zainhom) & 2 (Rodaini)
Leg 6 (8.40): 10 (Timeless Art), 9 (Makzeem) & 8 (Midhmaar)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 28 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the last eight winners (16/1-10/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are seven representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be SILVER GHOST, BOYSIE and THE MAJOR. The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, ICEBUSTER could claim another course victory.
Favourite factor: The ten favourites thus far have snared give gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.
Record of the course winners in the opening race:
1/2—Kath’s Legacy (good to firm)
1/7—Jack Of Dimaonds (good)
6.30: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last ten renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009. Perhaps that is the reason that the team is not represented this year, though I have left the stats in for my (our) records. Upwards and onward by suggesting that although Charlie Appleby’s impressive unbeaten run with his early juveniles has ended, SOUND AND SILENCE justified favouritism at Newmarket on the first day at school and though the Exceed And Excel colt faces a tough opponent here in FROZEN ANGEL, I will stick with the unbeaten form line tonight. Tom Dascombe (Frozen Angel) does not run many two-year-olds at the track which you can look at in two different ways. All eight of his juveniles have been beaten here during the last five years but on the other hand, the trainer must think a great deal of his impressive Ascot winner to take on this difficult assignment. CHAGATI is the potential big improver in the field, albeit his Bath victory leaves a lot to work on in respect of the opposition. Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby CHAGATI is included in the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Five of the last nineteen favourites have won whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
7.05: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 32 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented. Even now, just one four-year-old has been offered the green light, namely the 40/1 outsider Berghain. Regular readers will know that staying events leave yours truly luke-warm at best, and this is another contest which failed to light the blue touch paper from my viewpoint. If we have to bank on the likes of BIG ORANGE to justify favouritism in a Group 3 event then we are in trouble and that is the scenario that has been set before us on this occasion. At 12/1, VENT DE FORCE make more appeal (especially) from an each way/Placepot perspective, particularly as Hughie Morrison has his horses in good nick just now, four of his last eleven runners having scored. HIGHER POWER is named ahead of Quest For More in receipt of seven pounds from the long standing Roger Charlton raider.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Henry II’ contest:
2/3—Vent De Force (good to firm & good to soft)
7.40: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 16 of the last 20 renewals between them. Four-year-olds lead the way with 13 victories during the extended study period, which includes eleven of the last fifteen contests. SO MI DAR was pulled out of a race at York last week and these conditions are far more favourable in what appears to be an easier contest. As long as she does not appear too fresh in the preliminaries (she can pull hard through her races), all should be well en route to better things this summer. Autocratic deserves another chance at this level, though slight preference is for five-year-old CHAIN OF DAISIES in terms of being the main threat to SO MI DAR.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 17 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
Sandown record of course winners in the ‘Brigadier Gerard’:
1/1—Autocratic (good to firm)
1/1—Baydar (good to soft)
1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)
8.10: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last eleven winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin) given Michael's ten successes down the years. ZAINHOM has been offered the green light on this occasion, though this is a tough enough ask on just his fifth assignment. That said, Michael's Street Cry colt was a good winner at York last year (albeit under softer conditions), whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is expected to score from RODAINI.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty years. Fourteen of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 24 gold medals (including nine of the last fifteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion should prove to be TIMELESS ART, MAKZZEM and MIDHMAAR in a fascinating toteplacepot finale. Karl Burke’s northern raider TIMELESS ART (9/1 in places) is the value for money call from a win perspective, especially with five pound claimer Clifford Lee in the saddle, the young pilot having steered two of his last seven mounts to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last thirteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.
Sandown record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/7—Secret Art (good & soft)
2/2—Sir Roderic (Good & good to soft)
1/4—Laidback Romeo (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Richard Hannon (0/5)
3—Rod Millman (No runners)
2—Michael Bell (No runners)
2—Karl Burke (No runners)
2—Henry Candy (No runners)
2—Roger Charlton (1/1 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Clive Cox (1/3 – Profit of 14 points)
2—Ed Dunlop (No runners)
2—Hugo Palmer (0/4)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (1/2 – Profit of 2 points)
2—James Tate (No runners)
2—Chris Wall (0/1)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
57 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £111.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced
Goodwood: £121.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Warwick: £121.90 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £37.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced