REDCAR – MAY 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £57.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar:
Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Our Little Pony) & 6 (Popsi)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Classical Times) & 1 (Bella Alissa)
Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Wonder Of Dubai) & 3 (Grinty)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Manatee Bay), 1 (Capolavoro) & 6 (Nonno Giulio)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Teodoro), 2 (Katebird) & 4 (Medalla De Oro)
Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Gilgamesh), 1 (Fieldsman) & 4 (Shamaheart)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Richard Fahey has saddled winners in both of the renewals in which the stable has been represented to date whereby his newcomer OUR LITTLE PONY will be attempting to emulate last year’s winning debutante from the yard. Richard has already saddled four winners at the track this season, whilst one his two previous juvenile runners this term scored at Redcar. POPSI has run well in France on two occasions but with connections already pitching her in at this selling level, Franny Norton’s mount has obviously not convinced connections that she has that much of a future, though cheek-pieces might aid and abet her chance in this weak grade.
Two of the three favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 8/11 and 4/6, though detectives are still combing the area looking for the inaugural unplaced 11/8 market leader.
Five year record of represented trainers with their juveniles at Redcar:
Ollie Pears (Placebo Effect) – 0/10
David Evans (Tie Em Up Tel & Paulamey) – 1/9
Keith Dalgleish (Glen Valley) – 0/21
Richard Fahey (Our Little Pony) – 17/98
No juvenile runners for Jo Hughes (Popsi) during the study period
Karl Burke (Society’s Dream) – 2/28
2.30: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last twelve renewals. The three-year-old winners included one at 40/1 whilst a 100/1 chance prevented the junior raiders from securing a 'clean sweep' back in 2005. Peter Chapple-Hyam’s lone winner this year came in the three-year-old sector here at Redcar and in CLASSICAL TIMES, Peter has a cast iron opportunity to double his tally. The even money quote in the trade press looks fanciful in the extreme, whereby short priced investors might be fortunate to obtain 8/13 this morning I’ll wager. If odds are not ‘your bag’, it’s worth noting that the differential between taking 8/13 compared to even money, is the same as an 8/1 chance having been backed into 10/3. For the record, Peter’s ex inmate BELLA ALISSA is named as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: Successful favourites had been conspicuous only by their absence during the 10 year study period immediately before the last two market leaders obliged. Six market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period. Three odds on market leaders have been turned over including the 1/3 favourite which I did not mention in dispatches three years ago. That said, eight of the last gold medallists were returned at a top price of 11/2.
3.00: Three of Michael Bell’s last ten runners have scored, two of which of which were three-year-olds whereby vintage representative WONDER OF DUBAI is the first name on the team sheet. Relatively high on numbers, this field remains short on class, with GRINTY being the only feasible alternative option.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 favourite was beaten by the minimum margin when securing a Placepot position before last year’s 2/1 market leader finished out of the ‘short field’ frame. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home ‘qualify’ from each way and Placepot perspectives.
3.30: Of the three course winners in the field (see details below), MANATEE BAY is the only horse that is likely to really appreciate this fast ground whereby Noel Wilson’s seven-year-old is given the nod over the likes of CAPOLAVORO and NONNO GIULIO in another race on the card which should not prove difficult to win. Only a head stopped Robert Cowell from securing a 145/1 treble yesterday via just four runners and it would come as no surprise to see CAPOLAVORO maintaining the good form of the yard. It’s hardly surprising that this is the only Redcar meeting during the entire season that I cover, with the sport at this venue failing to light my ‘blue touch paper’ year on year.
Favourite factor: Nine of the eleven winners during the last twelve years have been returned at a top price of 4/1, statistics which include six successful favourites. Nine market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.
Redcar record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/4—Manatee Bay (good to firm)
2/5—Nonno Giulio (good & good to soft)
4.00: The last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 and my short listed trio all hail from the relevant sector of this three-year-old handicap, with five of the eleven runners qualifying on this occasion taking jockey claims into account. TEODORO represents Tom Dascombe who has saddled three of his last eight winners to wining effect, whilst KATEBIRD and MEDALLA DE ORO complete the threesome against the other eight contenders.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four of the last eight winners (13/8-6/4-11/8-10/3).
4.30: Four of the last five gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 as have thirteen of the last fifteen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions whereby the bottom two horses in the handicap are eliminated from my thoughts. That still leaves seven runners to assess, the pick of which should prove to be GILGAMESH and FIELDSMAN. That said, this morning’s 16/1 quote about dual course winner SHANAHEART makes some appeal, given that both of the relevant victories were gained under today’s (fast) conditions.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include three (5/2-9/4-1/2) gold medallists.
Redcar record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/10—Shamaheart (2 x good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Redcar card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season via two meetings + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Tim Easterby (0/9)
4—David O’Meara (0/4)
3—Karl Burke (0/3)
3—Michael Dods (0/3)
3—David Evans (No runners)
3—Richard Fahey (4/11 – Profit of 20 points)
3—Tracy Waggot (0/4)
2—David Barron (0/4)
2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (1/2 – Slight Profit)
2—Robert Cowell (No runners)
2—Keith Dalgleish (1/4 – slight loss)
2—Tom Dascombe (0/2)
2—Roger Fell (0/2)
2—Geoff Harker (1/3 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Charlie Hills (No runners)
2—Jo Hughes (No runners)
2—Mark Johnston (0/2)
2—Nigel Tinkler (0/1)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £25.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W): £37.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Sedgefield: £115.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
The meeting at Towcester was abandoned