Placepot pointers – Thursday May 5

CHESTER – MAY 5 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last five years on day two:

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £128.86 - 32 favourites - 12 won - 13 placed - 7 unplaced

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (English Summer), 6 (Darshini) & 1 (What About Carlo)

Leg 2 (2.40): 7 (Western Hymn) & 1 (Cannock Chase)

Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (US Army Ranger) & 1 (Port Douglas)

Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (King's Pavilion), 8 (Dark Devil) & 7 (Taking Libertys)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Full Intention), 2 (Lostock) & 4 (Mehmas)

Leg 6 (4.55): 8 (Justice Angel), 11 (Celebration) & 7 (Birdcage)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page which includes important trainer ratios

 

2.10: Five-year-olds have won four of the last ten renewals of this event and WHAT ABOUT CARLO (3/11) and MASTER OF FINANCE (6) are this year's relevant declarations. The pair are listed in order of preference with connections of WHAT ABOUT CARLO possibly having most to fear from ENGLISH SUMMER (7) and DARSHINI (5) in an interesting contest. The latter named pair might actually have the run on WHAT ABOUT CARLO if I conveniently ignore my self confessed anorak tendency.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites have reached the frame via eleven renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of course winners in the opening event:

1/4--Master Of Finance

2/6--Sennockian Star

3/12--English Summer

2.40 (Huxley Stakes): Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen contests whereby I am 'baffled of Bristol' writing this column, with vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence.  Upwards and onward on by suggesting that WESTERN HYMN and CANNOCK CHASE should outpoint their rivals here as the official figures suggest.  John Gosden's WESTERN HYMN looks a slightly quirky type at times though that said, his connections would like a dozen types like this, given his career winnings stand at over £400k via a ratio of 6/12.  CANNOCK CHASE gives away a racecourse run this season which could make the difference between victory and defeat.  TOP NOTCH TONTO might be booked for third spot, especially as this is his first assignment around these twists and turns, which might maintain his interest to decent effect.

Favourite factor: 15 of the last 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (10 winners).  11 of the last 17 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

Chester record of course winners in the second race:

1/7--Gabrial

3.10 (Chester Vase): Aidan O’Brien has won six of the last nine renewals and with Epsom Derby ante-post favourte US ARMY RANGER and PORT DOUGLAS representing the yard this time around, the ratio is likely to be improved upon following this year’s running of the Chester Vase.  For the record, Aidan comes to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  US ARMY RANGER met with a slight problem last year where his debut Curragh maiden victory is difficult to assess, especially as the success was gained on heavy ground.  This Galileo representative appears to be Aidan's 'talking horse' this spring however and his entry here adds plenty of interest to the card, notwithstanding the entry of stable companion PORT DOUGLAS.  Aidan could well have the forecast sewn up, following his 1-2-3 in the 1000 Guineas on Sunday.  ORMITO is expected to head the home contingent, though possibly some way adrift of the front pair.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 15 years, statistics which include six (3/1-7/4- 6/4-11/8-10/11-4/9) winners.

3.45: Nine of the last fourteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with KING'S PAVILION, DARK DEVIL and (possibly) TAKING LIBERTYS representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  The latter named Kevin Ryan raider is included in the overnight mix, hoping that the ground dries out overnight, as it was slowly doing during racing on Wednesday.  KINGS PAVILLION and DARK DEVIL are more obvious types anyway, with connections of Richard Hannon's STORM RISING (conversely) wanting some juice to remain in the turf I'll wager.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years, statistics which include six winners.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1--Arcanada

4.20: Richard Fahey (three handed this time around) comes to the gig on a hat trick having won three of the last five renewals.  Richard's newcomer LOSTOCK is preferred to his two stable companions who have failed to pull up any trees to date. Tom Dascombe (FULL INTENTION and FOUR DRAGONS) has won the other two contests whereby Tom's entries are entitled to plenty of respect, especially as they both finished second on their respective debuts.  If there is a joker in the pack, MEHMAS is more likely to be the culprit than others, though HAVELOCK will have plenty of supporters.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 20 favourites during the last 17 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

Represented trainer records with juveniles at Chester during the last five years:

Tom Dascombe (Full Intention & Four Dragons) - 12/59

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Mark Johnston (Havelock) - 12/62

Richard Fahey (Lostock-Melesina-Vona) - 13/64

Richard Hannon (Mehmas) - 6/20

Kevin Ryan (Percy Toplis) - 4/13

Eric Alston (Redrosezorro) - 2/11

Keith Dalgleish (Hamidans Girl) - 0/2

Joseph Tuite (Madam Dancealot) - 0/2

Steph Hollinshead (She's Rosanna) - No runners

4.55: 12 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less which brings JUSTICE ANGEL (5/14) and CELEBRATION (7) into the mix.  If the weight trend is to be breached in the toteplacepot finale, BIRDCAGE (9) could prove to be culprit, albeit Richard Fahey's raider is another who must overcome an inferior stall position.  That said, the winner has emerged from the same stall in each of the last two years, albeit on soft ground on each occasion.  REFLEKTOR (6) and ALSAADEN (3) are others to consider if you ignore the weight trends.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the study period.

Draw factor' (six furlongs):

9-2-6 (12 ran-soft)

9-7-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-9-7 (11 ran-soft)

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)

6-8-1 (10 ran-good)

9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)

1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)

9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:

1/3--Powerallied

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Wednesday:

12--Richard Fahey (13/99 at Chester last season)

8--Tom Dascombe (7/50)

8--Mark Johnston (12/56)

3--Andrew Balding (5/35)

3--Brian Ellison (1/15)

3--Richard Hannon (2/21)

2--Eric Alston (2/8)

2--Karl Burke (0/5)

2--Michael Easterby (2/9)

2--David Evans (2/38)

2--William Haggas (1/6)

2--Aidan O'Brien (2/4)

2--David O'Meara (1/14)

2--Kevin Ryan (3/14)

2--Sir Michael Stoute (1/11)

+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle (NH): £99.50 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

Newton Abbot: £34,057.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Same figure offered for yesterday given that this was a one day meeting twelve months ago

Wincanton: £202.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

Uttoxeter: £19.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Chester overview - Five year history of day two at the May meeting:

Leading trainers with runners on Thursday: 

5 winners--Richard Fahey (8/1-8/1-5/2**-2/1*-5/6*) - 12 runners on Thursday

5 winners--Aidan O'Brien (7/2-3/1*-7/4*-10/11*-8/11*) - 2 runners

2 winners--Andrew Balding (9/4* twice) - 3 runners

2 winners--Martyn Meade (8/1 & 6/1) - 1 runner

2 winners--Tom Dascombe (12/1 & 13/8*) - 8 runners

2 winners--Mark Johnston (6/1 & 5/1) - 8 runners

Negative favourite details:

0/5--John Gosden

0/3--Brian Ellison

0/3--Richard Fahey

0/2--Barry Hills

0/2--Charlie Hills

0/2--Sir Michael Stoute

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