WINCANTON - NOVEMBER 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £38.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed –3 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (12.40): 14 (Saint Contest) & 2 (Golden Birthday)
Leg 2 (1.15): 1 (Demographic), 9 (Presenting Berkley) & 2 (Mount Russell)
Leg 3 (1.45): 6 (Bon Enfant), 12 (On Demand) & 8 (McKenzie’s Friend)
Leg 4 (2.15): 3 (Bredon Hill Lad), 1 (Istimraar) & 5 (No No Cardinal)
Leg 5 (2.50): 1 (Burtons Well), 3 (Lettheriverrundry) & 5 (Starving Marvin)
Leg 6 (3.25): 3 (Black Valentine) & 4 (Clondaw Shane)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Money for Alan King’s newcomer SAINT CONTEST would make the race more interesting, especially as the trainer has scored with both of his favourites at the venue this season. Alan’s raider was beaten less than five lengths on his only start in this green and pleasant land off a mark of 77 on the level. That type of effort would only have to be repeated over timber to take the three-year-old colt close to winning in this grade/company. Hailing from Alan’s yard, we can be sure that Tom Cannon’s mount will have been well schooled. Connections should have most to fear from the course winner GOLDEN BIRTHDAY, though the concession of 15 pounds to the newcomer could prove to be a tough ask, especially on much slower ground than when winning here in May.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wincanton card.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Golden Birthday (good to firm)
1.15: DEMOGRAPHIC has been threatening to win another race for a while now and with the handicapper being lenient by not raising Emma Lavelle’s top weight after a decent effort the last day, Emma’s seven year can double his win tally in a race which will not take a great deal of winning. PRESENTING BERKLEY and MOUNT RUSSEL might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest. Neil Mulholland continues to churn out winners for fun, though having been beaten by a minimum margin of 46 lengths to date, Neil’s Apple Pops is passed over despite receiving weight from nearly all her rivals.
Favourite factor: The two (6/5 & 7/4) favourites have secured toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events.
Record in the course winner in the field:
1/2--All But Grey (good)
1.45: The ground has come right in all probability for course winner BON ENFANT and with Warren Greatrex having scored with his only market leader at Wincanton this year, I would like to see some support for his five-year-old before running a big race. A decent three pound claimer in the plate hopefully negates this being his seasonal debut, whereby BON ENFANT is taken to see off the likes of MCKENZIE’S FRIEND and ON DEMAND close home. That said, Colin Tizzard’s latter named raider has secured both of his victories at this venue thus far and receiving weight all round, the Teofilo mare in entitled to attract support in the ring.
Favourite factor: The 2/1 market leader claimed a toteplacepot position by finishing second in the inaugural 'dead eight' contest before last year’s 2/1 market leader finished nearer last (seventh) than first in a nine runner event.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/3—Zulu Oscar (good to soft)
1/1—Bon Enfant (good)
1/1—Honey Pearl (good to firm)
2/4—On Demand (good & good to firm)
2.15: The seven represented trainers ‘boasted’ aggregate stats of 0/33 during the last fortnight at the time of writing, whereby this self-confessed ‘anorak’ is less than confident about the outcome of what should have otherwise been a half decent Class 4 event. As a winner of three of his last seven assignments, BREDON HILL LAD is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective, but lack of a ‘first time out win’ in previous seasons will stop me from having a bet aside of our favourite wager. The handicapper is doing all s/he can to stop ISTIMRAAR from scoring, having marginally raised the five-year-old in the weights after two of his last three races despite not winning the relevant events. NO NO CARDINAL completes my trio against the other four contenders in this short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Wincanton programme.
2.50: You can expect the Venetia Williams to rev up several notches with the rain falling more consistently now, especially in the west of the country. Whether BURTONS WELL will be fit enough to do himself justice is anyone’s guess prior to being seen in the parade ring but either way, the seven-year-old is a really decent individual on the best of his form lines. In terms of the ground conditions, connections of SMOKING JACKET would probably have wished for the rain to have fallen elsewhere, whereby LETTHERIVERRUNDRY and STARVING MARVIN make more appeal from a value for money perspective.
Favourite factor: Yet another new race on the Wincanton card.
3.25: Paul Nicholls is the man to lead with here, as the local trainer has won nine of the last 17 renewals of this novices’ hurdle event. Paul has saddled nine the twelve market leaders he has sent out at Wincanton this season to winning effect, and there is every chance that his Point winner BLACK VALENTINE will win the Placepot finale, returned as the market leader. CLONDAW SHANE is slightly preferred to ALPINE SECRET as the main threat.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period. Eight market leaders snared gold (five of them trained by Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Thursday followed by this season’s stats at the course + profits losses accrued:
5 runners—Tim Vaughan (0/4)
4—Neil Mulholland (1/11 – loss of 4 points to level stakes)
4—Paul Nicholls (11/18 0 profit of 2 points)
3—Nick Williams (0/1)
2—Brian Barr (0/3)
2—Kevin Bishop (0/1)
2—Chris Down (1/1 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Alexandra Dunn (0/1)
2—Harry Fry (1/11 – slight loss)
2—Nick Mitchell (0/1)
2—Henry Oliver (No runners)
2—Jeremy Scott (0/4)
2—Jess Westwood (0/1)
2—Venetia Williams (No runners)
+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Market Rasen: £176.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Chelmsford: £230.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle: This is a new meeting