TAUNTON – APRIL 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £63.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton:
Leg 1 (12.45): 10 (Winningtry) & 6 (Misterton)
Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Lost In Lecce), 5 (Culm Councellor) & 1 (Fair To Middling)
Leg 3 (1.45): 3 (Earthmoves), 6 (Moss On The Mill) & 8 (Fort Worth)
Leg 4 (2.20): 11 (Miracle Cure), 9 (Beau Du Brizais) & 5 (Western Sunrise)
Leg 5 (2.55): 4 (Fine Resolve) & 3 (Replacement Plan)
Leg 6 (3.25): 2 (The Kvilleken) & 6 (Lets Go Dutchess)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.45: WINNINGTRY started the ball rolling for the Paul Nicholls/Trevor Hemmings team at the first time of asking at Wincanton, before running third in a decent event at Ascot. This is ‘Nicholls country’ as you probably know and Paul can start the Taunton year off to winning effect, chiefly at the expense of MISTERTON on this occasion. Harry Fry (trainer of MISTERTON) is now in his fifth year of training – where does the time go? I received a letter yesterday telling me when my exact state pension date is due. It’s 955 days (though I will not be able to retire) – not that I’m counting!
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 duly obliged.
1.15: I have made the point several times down the years that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum trip offer the worst favourite record in either sector of the sport and though only five runners go to post for this weak contest, it could prove difficult to name the favourite! With Philip Hobbs being one of the main understudies to Paul Nicholls at Taunton down the years, I guess that his Midnight Legend filly LOST IN LECCE fits the bill. Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals of the contest, the only ‘edge’ I can find, whereby the relevant raiders (one from each vintage) are taken as the main dangers, namely CULM COUNCILLOR and FAIR TO MIDDLING.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won via six contests, though five winners scored at a top price of 11/2. Four of the six market leaders snared Placepot positions
1.45: Related to fine old warriors in Ptit Zig and Earthmover, EARTHMOVES needs to up his game to be mentioned in the same breath though as a six-year-old, the Paul Nicholls representative still has time on his side. Connections of Nick Schofield’s mount might have most to fear from MOSS ON THE MILL and FORT WORTH, providing that Jonjo’s latter named raider is one of the inmates that has a forward gear at present, which is not guaranteed, for all that the trainer has shown signs of coming back to life recently. A fair few of the other contenders might have been nabbed by the handicapper for now.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite prevailed.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
2.20: I thought that the ground might be a little too lively for MIRCALE CURE a few weeks back at Wincanton but that proved not to be the case whereby the Venetia Williams raider can follow up on what should be similar conditions with the rain in the west (supposedly) easing up on Wednesday. Providing a fall close home has not knocked his confidence, BEAU DU BRIZAIS should figure prominently, arguably alongside WESTERN SUNRISE. Clic Work might not represent value for money from the top of the handicap for the Paul Nicholls team, not that you should ever write off his horses off entirely at this venue.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first (10/17).
Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/3—My Brother Sylvest (good)
2.55: Seven of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which reduce the field down from ten to four if you take the figures seriously. The fact that seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals suggests that FINE RESOLVE and REPLACEMENT PLAN are the pair to home in on, from a Placepot perspective at least.
Favourite factor: Two winning favourites to report, with five of the last six market leaders having finished in the frame. Six of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:
1/5—Edeiff’s Lad (good to soft)
3.25: Martin Keighley has three chances on the card but few of his inmates have the consistency of his eight-year-old raider THE KVILLEKEN who runs off the same mark as the last day, having been dropped a few notches by the official assessor of late. LETS GO DUTCHESS is a similar type and this pair should snare the dividend between them if we are ‘live’ going into the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 & 10/3) market leaders have finished out with the washing thus far.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/7—Frozen Over (good)
4/14—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday:
5 runners—Alexandra Dunn (9/59 – Profit of 22 points to level stakes)
4—Chris Down (6/73 – Profit of 8 points)
3—Jimmy Frost (1/37 – loss of 26 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (19/108 – loss of 41 points)
3—Martin Keighley (1/19 – loss of 10 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (45/144 – loss of 2 points)
2—Brian Barr (3/21 – loss of 9 points)
2—Bob Buckler (6/43 – loss of 13 points)
2—Johnny Farrelly (6/40 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Richard Woollacott (2/63 – loss of 53 points)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
61 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £48.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Towcester: This is essentially a new meeting
Chelmsford: £212.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced