NEWBURY – NOVEMBER 3
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.55): 3 (Tower Of Allen), 1 (Kingston Mimosa) & 2 (Major Mac)
Leg 2 (1.30): 4 (Patsys Castle), 9 (Cucklington) & 6 (Carre Noir)
Leg 3 (2.00): 6 (Generous Ransom) & 4 (Wade Harper)
Leg 4 (2.35): 2 (Copper Kay), 6 (Snow Leopardess) & 3 (Dusky Legend)
Leg 5 (3.10): 2 (Our Kaempfer) & 1 (Bigbadjohn)
Leg 6 (3.45): 3 (Peter The Mayo Man) & 6 (Barman)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.55: I am going to take some time out from Thursday’s analysis to offer more detail on the weekend meetings later in the week, especially with so few runners declared and a lack of any history to the fixture. Ordinarily I would opt for a Nicky Henderson runner with just three entries involved but Nicky’s entry TOWER OF ALLEN hardly sets the pulse racing. The previous winner in the field is KINGSTON MIMOSA, whilst Hughie Morrison’s MAJOR MAC completes the field. The trio are listed in marginal order of preference but as seems to happen in so many of these races, the outsider of three could well oblige.
Favourite factor: This is a new meeting at Newbury whereby there are no previous results to aid and abet our cause.
1.30: Colin Tizzard seems to have his timing right, having saddled winners of late as we close in on Sandown’s first NH meeting of the season, the venue where Colin reigned supreme last year via a 40% strike rate. Colin saddles CUCKLINGTON on this occasion, the bottom weight receiving as much as eleven pounds in an ordinary contest. PATSYS CASTLE will like the fast conditions, whilst CARRE NOIR completes my trio against the other six contenders.
2.00: Beaten favourite GENEROUS RANSOM has finally dropped below his last winning mark, having failed to win any one of his subsequent seven starts since the success was achieved well over eighteen months ago. WADE HARPER is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings ahead of MINELLA ON LINE.
2.35: COPPER KAY is (Like Generous Ransom in the previous race) another strong contender representing the Philip Hobbs/Richard Bandwagon on the card, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of SNOW LEOPARDNESS and DUSKY LEGEND. This is the strongest race on the card from my viewpoint, certainly strong enough not to warrant having a bet from a win perspective.
3.10: It defies belief that just two horses have been declared for this event which offers guaranteed prize money of £11k. This is a flip of a coin job if ever I have seen one and as is usually case when no definite pace can be expected, it’s simply a case of hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails. For the record, conditions might suit OUR KAEMPFER more than BIGBADJOHN on Thursday.
3.45: The Worcester and Warwick victories for PETER THE MAYO MAN were gained under these kind of conditions and Neil Mulholland’s progressive Dylan Thomas gelding should snare another Placepot position at the very least and with BARMAN also appreciating good ground, this pair should secure the dividend if we were live going into the finale.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Thursday – followed by 5 year stats at the tack + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:
4—Nicky Henderson (33/144 – loss of 17 points)
3—Charlie Longsdon (4/51 - 24 points)
3—Oliver Sherwood (5/33 – loss of 2 points)
2—Rebecca Curtis (7/54 – Profit of 6 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (18/102 - Profit of 66 points)
2—Alan King (15/147 – loss of 64 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (6/70 - loss of 38 points)
2—Evan Williams (2/28 – loss of 4 points)
2—Laura Young (---)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
45 declared runners