TAUNTON – NOVEMBER 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £24.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton:
Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Challico) & 4 (Diese Des Bieffes)
Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Brahms De Clermont) & 2 (Barn Hill)
Leg 3 (1.20): 3 (One Of Us), 1 (Gold Mountain) & 2 (Pengo’s Boy)
Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (Lovely Job), 4 (Beau De Brizais) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)
Leg 5 (2.20): 2 (Cabernet D’Alene), 10 (Serveontime) & 8 (Goal)
Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Double Accord), 3 (Thegirlfrommilan) & 2 (More Than Luck)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: Two obvious places to start and finish in this event with Paul Nicholls (CHALLICO) taking on Nicky Henderson (DIESE DES BEIFFES). This is very much Paul’s part of the country; hence the two horses being listed in order of preference. Next!
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Challico (good to firm)
1/1—Show On The Road (good)
12.50: Paul Nicholls should secure a quick double on the card having entered BRAHMS DE CLERMONT, albeit his Kayf Tara representative has been recorded as a beaten favourite on his last two outings at odds of 4/6 and 5/4. The Philip Hobbs newcomer BARN HILL is a well related type and as the only trainer to have secured a double on the corresponding card (2013) during the last five years, Philip’s entry catches the eye in another poor race with which to start the meeting.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same stats apply. The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/1—Brahms De Clermont (good)
1.20: I have made the point several times down the years that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum trip offer the worst favourite record in either sector of the sport and the favourite stats below suggest that this is a good race to confirm that point. Having secured just three bronze medals from six assignments to date, ONE OF US might not appear to be the logical call but there is enough money in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night to suggest that this could be his day. GOLD MOUNTAIN offers some value for money from a Placepot perspective given the good ground which appears to suit Harry Cobden’s mount, whilst course winner PENGO’S BOY completes my trio against the remaining four runners in this ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won via seven contests, though six winners scored at a top price of 11/2. Five of the eight market leaders snared Placepot positions
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/4—Gold Mountain (good to firm)
1/3—Pengo’s Boy (good to soft)
1.50: This could easily be diluted into a ‘win only’ contest and the trio to concentrate on appear to be LOVELY JOB, BEAU DE BRIZAIS and CAPTAIN BUCK’S, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. I suggested yesterday that the two four runner races at Wetherby would ensure that the eventual Placepot dividend would be worth winning and so it proved, despite the fact that favourites won both events.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite prevailed before last year’s 10/3 market leader was badly hampered at the third last before unseating his rider.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
2/4—Beau Du Brizais (good & good to firm)
2.20: Ambrais Des Marais look the most vulnerable favourite on the card with 5/2 freely available via the exchanges about what is a 7/4 chance right across the bookmaking boards. Value for money appears to be in the offing about the 4/1 quote by Hills/Betfred/Tote relating to the chance of CABERNET D’ALENE. Both of the Nick Williams/Lizzie Kelly raiders on the card have decent chances according to the gospel of yours truly, with their five-year-old raider possibly following One Of Us into the area reserved for winners this afternoon. Others to consider include SERVEONTIME and GOAL who is marginally preferred to Ballyegan, mainly because of the weight stats.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first (10/17), before the 15/8 market leader twelve months ago found a (Paul Nicholls trained) 12/1 chance too strong at the business end of the contest.
Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg:
2.55: Eight of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which reduces the ‘dead eight’ field down to four if you take the figures seriously. The fact that seven-year-olds have won three of the last eight renewals suggests that DOUBLE ACCORD and THEGIRLFROMMILAN (10/1 with Hills looks to big) are the pair to home in on, from a Placepot perspective at least. I’m adding the insurance value of MORE THAN LUCK into the mix.
Favourite factor: Two winning favourites to report, with six of the last seven market leaders having finished in the frame. Seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Double Accord (good)
4/15—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Thursday followed by their ratio at the track this season + Profit/loss accrued:
4 runners—Philip Hobbs (0/3)
4—Paul Nicholls (2/6 – loss of 3 points)
3—Johnny Farrelly (0/4)
3—Evan Williams (0/3)
2—Rebecca Curtis (0/1)
2—Vic Dartnall (No previous runners at Taunton this season)
2—Alexandra Dunn (0/4)
2—Jimmy Frost (0/1)
2—Nicky Henderson (1/1 +3)
2—Anthony Honeyball (1/2 +1)
2—Tim Vaughan (0/4)
2—Robert Walford (No previous runners)
2—Nick Williams (1/3 – slight profit)
+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: Meeting abandoned
Towcester: £211.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced