EXETER - OCTOBER 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £292.90 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (If The Cap) & 4 (Enniscoffee Oscar)
Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Challico) & 3 (Good Man Pat)
Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Hidden Cargo), 3 (Steely Addition) & 8 (Greyed A)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Barton Rose), 8 (Third Act) & 4 (Triple Chief)
Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Wotzizname) & 2 (Coastal Tiep)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Minella Treasure), 1 (Chantecler) & 4 (Kings Temptation)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Although the average Placepot dividend for this meeting during the last five years stands at £1,856.50, a return of the thick end of £9K in 2012 was responsible for the impressive figure. The subsequent four corresponding meetings offer an average of just £93.50 which is more like the usual return at this venue. Upwards and onward by informing that four-year-olds have won seven renewals during the last fourteen years, with last year’s lone vintage representative scoring at 5/4. That said, the only one of the three relevant entries this time looking as though it has any chance at all is Golden Sunrise. Unfortunately for trainer Colin Tizzard and his connections, the likes of IF THE CAP FITS and ENNISCOFFEE OSCAR have been declared and whilst I normally side with the way the trends point towards, this pair look to have the opening event between them. I will have a very small stake on the Tizzzard raider as cover for my Placepot bet at the 12/1 offer at the time of writing; just in case! Enniscoffey Oscar represents Emma Lavelle who is the leading trainer at this corresponding meeting during the last five years and it’s worth noting that her Oscar gelding was her only entry for this fixture last weekend.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 18 favourites have won this event, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period (before the 40/1 shock gold medallist in 2012) was returned at just 100/30.
2.45: Heat two of the opening event gives us a chance to support four-year-old GOOD MAN PAT from a Placepot perspective at least, albeit CHALLICO might prove to be a tough nut to crack. The Paul Nicholls raider (Challico) is asked to travel an additional 300 yards (thankfully as we deal in furlongs I can still use ‘yards’) but that should not prove to be too difficult unless Paul’s recent inmate fails to cope with softer conditions. Master Work looks booked for third spot on debut. Good Man Pat represents Alan King whose only two winners at this meeting during the last five years came on the same day three years ago when the trainer snared a 25/1 double. For the record, Alan has two entries on today’s card.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event, whereby the same stats apply; 14 of the last 18 favourites have won this event, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period (before the 40/1 shock gold medallist in 2012) was returned at just 100/30.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Challico (good to firm)
3.15: I mentioned Alan King at the end of my analysis on the second race and his other runner on the card today is HIDDEN CARGO who contests this event, with the trainer having secured gold and silver medals with his only two previous runners in the race. Every single one of the 18 bookmakers who had priced this race up at the time of writing has Alan’s Stowaway gelding in at 7/2 behind STEELY ADDITION in the market. Both of these runners should finish in the Placepot mix, though I’m tempted to include Richard Newland’s GREYED A, despite the fact that his Lingfield win last term was gained under soft conditions. There will certainly be worse 18/1 chances on the card from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: The two previous market leaders had secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions before last year’s 6/4 favourites finished second in a ‘win only’ contest.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
3/10—Thundering Home (good – good to soft – heavy)
1/3—Trans Express (soft)
3.45: BARTON ROSE ‘splits the books’ in the dead of night with odds on offer ranging between 11/4 and 4/1, though that can occur when a relatively unknown claimer has been booked to ride. The relevant pilot has ridden four winners (10% strike rate), whilst it’s also worth pointing out that Charlie Longsdon’s runners have just gone off the boil of late, with his last 18 runners having failed to score, eleven of which started at a top price of 5/1, stats which include five beaten favourites. Where else can you read this nonsense? I’ve written over 10,000 columns during the past seventeen years and as you are still reading today’s offering, I guess that the stats and facts meet with your approval! Upwards and onward by suggesting that THIRD ACT and TRIPLE CHIEF represent superior value for money than Dr Medic whose 7/2 odds fail to light my ‘blue touch paper’.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/3—Triple Chief (soft)
1/2—Seven Kingdoms (good to firm)
1/3—Third Act (soft)
4.20: Six-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals of this event, though Pomme looks to have her work cut here with WOTZIZNAME and COASTEL TIEP having been declared to run, albeit in four runner race in which subsequent results sometimes fail to go to plan. Harry Fry (WOTZIZNAME) takes on his old mentor Paul Nicholls (COASTAL TIEP) here, with Harry boasting a 32% strike rate under both codes since the end of April via 14 winners. Paul also has his runners in form (33/91 during the same period) and we could be set for a battle royal between this pair up the home straight. Let’s hope for an error free contest and may the best horse (on the day) gain the spoils. WOTZIZNAME gained some valuable experience over fences last year in a Class 3 event at Aintree which might just make the difference between these two exciting recruits to the discipline.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (85/40 & 4/7).
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/1—Wotzizname (good to soft)
4.50: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of this handicap hurdle for novices, with MINELLA TREASURE looking much the stronger of the two vintage representatives this time around. I become irritated with sentences (like in today’s trade press ‘Verdict’) when they say that a trainer (Ben Case in this instance) has his runners going well, without clarifying just how well, if you follow my drift. It comes under the same heading (from my viewpoint) as the draw scenario in races when it is suggested by media types that the draw only comes into effect if the pace in the race is relevant on one side of the track or the other. This was beautifully demonstrated the other week in the Cambridgeshire when I insisted that a high number was best and despite almost racing alone in the closing stages, the 50/1 winner scored from stall 29/34. Out of interest, the runner up was second at 100/1 from stall 22. Returning to this event, Ben Case has won with two of his last 13 runners which is a reasonable return, but why not just quote actual figures rather than take the ‘lazy route’ which fails to offer readers actual facts. I have never suggested that my stats and facts are bombproof, but at least on the majority of occasions you are left in no doubt as what the actuals ratio are at the time of writing. Rant over, suggesting that Ben’s raider KINGS TEMPTATION should become involved at the business end of proceedings, arguably alongside CHANTECLER who represents trainer Neil Mulholland. Neill saddled the winner of this race three years ago (‘coincidently’ with a six-year-old), one of his two winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one successful 11/4 (joint) favourite.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Sue Gardner (12/96 – loss of 25 points)
3—Nigel Hawke (5/66 – loss of 39 points)
3—Martin Keighley (2/30 – loss of 24 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (5/54 – loss of 36 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (36/117 – loss of 26 points)
3—David Pipe (23/122 – loss of 49 points)
3—Colin Tizzard (16/129 – loss of 60 points)
2—Kim Bailey (2/46 – loss of 34 points)
2—Robin Dickin (1/9 – loss of 2 points)
2—Richenda Ford (0/9)
2—Harry Fry (24/60 +44)
2—Carroll Gray (1/25 – loss of 15 points)
2—Grace Harris (0/7)
2—Philip Hobbs (39/187 – loss of 34 points)
2—Alan King (16/78 – loss of 9 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (3/16 +6)
2—Richard Mitchell (3/15 +32)
2—Helen Nelmes (0/25)
2—Katie Stephens (0/11)
2—Nick Williams (4/35 – loss of 18 points)
2—Richard Woolacott (3/78 – loss of 50 points)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
80 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £186.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Worcester: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar
Chelmsford: £10.70 – 8 favourites – 4 winner – 3 placed – 1 unplaced