CARLISLE – OCTOBER 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £512.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Deauville Dancer), 7 (Dominada) & 1 (Little Bruce)
Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Mister Kit) & 3 (Derinother Yak)
Leg 3 (3.15): 3 (Wells De Lune), 1 (Move To The Groove) & 6 (Wade Harper)
Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Ballyarthur) & 5 (Ryedale Racer)
Leg 5 (4.25): 2 (Masterplan) & 6 (Kilronan Castle)
Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Two Faces West), 5 (Askamore Darsi) & 2 (Bob Tucker)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: DEAUVILLE DANCER is not ground dependent one way or the other which is always an edge worth taking into account and with Ryan Hatch in the saddle as an added bonus, the David Dennis raider is the first name on the team sheet. DOMINADA remains something of a ‘dark horse’ though from a Placepot perspective, I get the impression that he could be a potential disaster waiting to happen if he does not snare gold. LITTLE BRUCE is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites to date have snared Placepot positions without winning their respective events.
2.40: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and yet only the (probable) rank outsider Monbeg Cave represents the vintage on this occasion. Donald McCain held 24 options for the two NH meetings on Thursday which he has trimmed down to nine, eight of which have been directed to Carlisle! The first stable contender is DERINOTHER YANK who remains a maiden following four assignments to date. That scenario looks set to continue, given the declaration of MISTER KIT who is unbeaten after two outings at the venue. With a five pound claimer reducing the burden, MISTER KIT must take the beating with the likelihood of a little juice in the ground.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 during which time, three market leaders have prevailed.
Record of course winner in the field:
2/2—Mister Kit (both victories gained under good to soft conditions)
3.15: Charlie Longsdon has won both renewals in which his stable was involved whereby WELLS DE LUNE is the call to thwart the likely challenges of MOVE TO THE GROOVE and WADE HARPER. MOVE TO THE GROOVE fell on his chasing debut when held up, as opposed to when landing a hat trick when generally dictating the pace. If given his head here, Will Kennedy’s mount could outrun his odds.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have won at 6/4 and Evens, though the other market leader finished out with the washing.
3.50: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3/2 via just the five contests thus far, with five-year-old RYEDALE RACER probably offering most resistance to the loan six-year-old in the field, namely BALLYARTHUR who looks a winner waiting to happen form the in-form yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies. Four of Nigel’s last seven runners have won and going back a little further in time, the trainer boasts a recent ratio of 8/15.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have scored at 11/8-11/10-5/6-1/4, though the other favourite failed to claim a Placepot position.
4.25: KILRONAN CASTLE can supplement a recent success as another potential winner on the card for Donald McCain who has his team in fine form. The blot on the horizon is Charlie Longsdon’s MASTERPLAN, albeit Charlie’s six-year-old gives away recent race fitness, having been off the course since April. His Ascot success remains locked in the memory bank however and in a thoroughly interesting event, this pair will do for me against the remaining seven contenders.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Carlisle card.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/1—Kilronan Castle (good to soft)
5.00: Philip Hobbs saddles his only runner on the card here in THREE FACES WEST, though it’s interesting that champion jockey Richard Johnson (at this early stage of the season) has ridden just 27% of his winners via the collective number of four trainers that ‘Dickie’ impresses for these the days, the other trio being Gordon Elliott, Charlie Johnson and Tim Vaughan. The vital fact to consider is that Richard has ridden those winner for Philip from 30% of the aggregate number of rides relating to the quartet of handlers, whereby Richard’s dominance for Philip down the years is coming under pressure. That all said, TWO FACES WEST should score for the bandwagon here, with connections probably having most to fear from ASKAMORE DARSI and BOB TUCKER, who ironically represents Charlie Longsdon.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders in the Placepot finale have failed to reach the frame.
Record of the course winners in the sixth contest on the card:
1/1—Three faces West (soft)
1/5—Carrigdhoun (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Thursday (stats for the one meeting this season in brackets):
8—Donald McCain (2/6 – winners at 11/2 & 9/2)
4—Brian Ellison (---)
3—James Moffat (---)
3—Malcolm Jefferson (0/4)
3—Charlie Longsdon (---)
3—Martin Todhunter (0/3)
2—Nick Alexander (---)
2—Maurice Barnes (0/2)
2—David Dennis (---)
2—Lisa Harrison (0/1)
2—Nicky Richards (0/2)
2—Dianne Sayer (0/3)
2—Sue Smith (0/4)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £69.00 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Chelmsford: £41.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £30.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Carlisle overview – This is only the second NH meeting of the season at Carlisle – Five year stats from a random sample of trainers at the course (ratios in brackets refer to last season) – followed by ratios offered for trainers who achieved at least a 25% strike rate during the last five years:
32/167—Donald McCain (5/34)
17/64—Nicky Richard (5/16) – 26.6% strike rate over the last five years
11/100—Sue Smith (5/20)
16/52—Alan Swinbank (3/10) – 30.8%
11/154—Lucinda Russell (1/22)
10/39—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5) – 25.6%
8/26—Charlie Longsdon (3/9) – 30.8%
7/22—Venetia Williams (1/7) – 31.8%
7/37—Phil Kirby (2/10)
6/43—Brian Ellison (2/6)
4/6—Paul Nicholls (4/6) – 66.7%
4/7—Dr Richard Newland (1/1) – 57.1%
4/11—Peter Bowen (0/1) – 36.4%
4/15—David Pipe (2/7) – 26.7%
3/7—Oliver SDherwood (0/1) – 42.8%
3/8—Tim Vaughan (---) – 37.5%
3/11—Evan Williams (1/3) – 27.3%
1/1—Anthony Honeyball (---) – 100%