LINGFIELD – OCTOBER 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £59.90 (6 favourites - No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield:
Leg 1 (1.40): 11 (Saaqaaf) & 8 (Mittens)
Leg 2 (2.10): 1 (Carigrad), 8 (Tai Sing Yeh) & 9 (Tobrave)
Leg 3 (2.40): 3 (Dubai Horizon) & 1 (Across Dubai)
Leg 4 (3.10): 10 (Mise En Rose), 3 (Home Cummins) & 4 (Johara)
Leg 5 (3.45): 5 (Sea Of Flames), 8 (Race Day) & 2 (Faydhan)
Leg 6 (4.20): 10 (Last Tango Inparis) & 12 (Ruscombe)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: Mittens failed to show anything on debut but with Sir Michael Stoute boasting a 42% strike rate with his juveniles here on the Polytrack surface during the last five years, Michael’s New Approach raider cannot be completely overlooked. It’s interesting that Michael should look to this race to seek improvement from his April foal, given that Michael saddled the winner of this contest twelve months ago. SHAAQAAF could take the beating however, with THE BEAR CAN FLY arguably proving to be the best of the newcomers.
Favourite factor: Both (1/2 & 5/4) favourites have found one too good for them when securing Placepot positions thus far.
2.10: Josephine Gordon continues to go from strength to strength in the saddle and offering a 39% strike rate for trainer Hugo Palmer this season, stable representative CARIGRAD can go well at the first time of asking. The two horses down the bottom of the list (TAI SING YEH and TOBRACE) have performed well enough to date, but have not pulled up enough trees to worry yours truly unduly to oppose Hugo’s debutante from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Only two (4/5 & 15/8) favourites have won during the last decade, whilst three 25/1 winners have been record during the last seven contests.
2.40: Saeed Bin Suroor enjoys a better than one in three ratio with his juveniles on the A/W track here at Lingfield whereby DUBAI HORIZON is the first name on the team sheet. Saeed’s Poet’s Voice gelding only found one too good for him at York at the first time of asking despite showing juvenile tendencies in the stalls. With that experience behind him, the February foal will surely take plenty of kicking out of the frame here, notwithstanding his decent chance of snaring gold. The other horses who have seen a racecourse already would have to step up on what they have achieved to date I fancy, whereby two newcomers might give the selection most to do, namely ACROSS DUBAI and GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY who could outrun his projected price.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats apply.
3.10: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer, with MUFFRI ‘HA and HOME CUMMINS likely to prove to be the pick of the relevant entries this time around. MISE EN ROSE had to be a danger from the ‘junior set’ under the terms and conditions of the contest, whilst five-year-old French raider JOHARA cannot be eliminated from the overnight equation.
Favourite factor: Five renewals have come and gone without successful market leader being recorded. That said, the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 7/1.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
3.45: This is a really interesting contest with the eight course winners in the field boasting an aggregate strike rate of 33%. The course record of 4/5 for SEA OF FLAMES is all the more impressive given his 0/6 ratio at other venues. RACE DAY carries the Godolphin colours and with Jospephine Gordon having ridden two of her three mounts to winning effect for Saeed Bin Suroor, the Dubawi raider is rated as the main threat to SEA OF FLAMES. Aside from those options, FAYDHAN is the lone four-year-old in the field, with vintage representatives having won four of the last five renewals.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals, the top priced winner being returned at just 15/2 during the period. Six of the last seven favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest:
4/5—Sea Of Flames
4.20: This Listed race for fillies gives an opportunity for Hughie Morrison’s Iqlaam raider LAST TANGO INPARIS a chance of going one better compared to the last day in France, with connections probably having most to fear from fellow three-year-old RUSCOMBE, vintage representatives having won seven renewals during the last decade. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to ANZHELIKA.
Favourite factor: Only one of the last four favourites has finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Lingfield card on Friday alongside 5 year stats on Lingfield’s A/W track:
4 runners—William Haggas (41/163 – loss of 9 points)
4—Richard Hannon (41/231 – loss of 9 points)
4—Mark Johnston (60/413 – loss of 139 points)
3—Ralph Beckett (34/157 – loss of 9 points)
3—John Gosden (56/278 – loss of 54 points)
3—Eve Johnson Houghton (17/133 – loss of 7 points)
3—David O’Meara (4/30 – loss of eleven points)
3—Roger Varian (25/141 – loss of 45 points)
2—Jim Boyle (18/201 – loss of 65 points)
2—Harry Dunlop (9/93 – loss of 49 points)
2—Charlie Hills (21/155 – loss of 44 points)
2—Richard Hughes (5/33 – loss of 12 points)
2—David Lanigan (16/77 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (29/84 – Profit of 61 points)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (30/101 – Profit of 4 points)
2—James Tate (21/119 - loss of 34 points)
2—Roger Teal (25/171 – Profit of 22 points)
2—Ed Walker (13/93 – loss of 29 points)
2—Lisa Williamson (0/66 – Profit of 10 points)
+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
95 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Sedgefield: £169.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Stratford: £72.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: £129.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Lingfield overview - relating to their juvenile events at 1.40 – 2.10 – 2.40 -
5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector on the A/W surface:
0/5—Richard Hughes (Angels Quest)
15/62—Richard Hannon (Getna)
1/7—Heather Main (Island Cloud)
1/6—Roger Teal (Kyllachys Tale)
5/18—David Lanigan (Last Word)
8/52—Mark Johnston (La Vie En Rose)
8/19—Sir Michael Stoute (Mittens)
0/19—Harry Dunlop (Modhilah)
3/25—Sylvester Kirk ((Oberyn)
11/73—John Gosden (Shaaqaaf)
6/31—Ralph Beckett (The Bear Can Fly)
2/18—Hugo Palmer (Carigrad)
3/39—Jamie Osborne (De Little Engine)
0/4—John Gallagher (Legendoire)
3/21—Marcus Tregoning (Leonidas)
9/51—William Haggas (Native Soldier)
0/19—Ed Walker (Peking Flyer)
15/62—Richard Hannon (Sureyoutoldme)
1/24—Charlie Hills (Tai Sing Yeh)
5/29—Roger Varian (Tobrave)
9/51—William Haggas (Across Dubai)
5/29—Roger Varian (Desert Grey)
11/32—Saeed Bin Suroor (Dubai Horizon)
15/62—Richard Hannon (Endeavour)
5/27—James Tate (Golden Opportunity)
3/17—William Knight (Hajjam)
0/19—Ed Walker (Know Your Limit)
1/34—Ed Dunlop (Magdalane Fox)
8/52—Mark Johnston (Think So)