EXETER - OCTOBER 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £49.20 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.20): 10 (Replacement Plan), 4 (Court King) & 2 (Juwireya)
Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (Wolftrap) & 2 (Coeur Tantre)
Leg 3 (3.30): 8 (Houston Dynimo), 6 (Schindler’s Prince) & 1 (On The Bridge)
Leg 4 (4.05): 4 (Minella Celebration) & 6 (Rock Of Leon)
Leg 5 (4.40): 2 (Lostock Hall) & 1 (Barwick)
Leg 6 (5.15): 2 (Fraser Canyon), 1 (Billy My Boy) & 8 (Zarliman)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Apologies for the delay in posting Thursday's work due to ill health. Seven-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals of this handicap hurdle for novices (runner up last year for good measure) with just one vintage representative having been declared this year, namely REPLACEMENT PLAN. Richard Woollacott’s Flemensfirth gelding is attractively priced at around 14/1 for an each way punt, notwithstanding being included in my Placepot mix today. Others for the mix include JUWIREYA and COURT KING who comes to the gig on a hat trick.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one successful 11/4 (joint) favourite.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/5—Motts Cross (good)
2.55: Conditions could have been easier for WOLFTRAP, the dual winner having scored with juice in the ground thus far. Alan King appears to have found a decent opportunity for his seven-year-old gelding however, whereby I (along with connections) will be disappointed if Liam Heard’s mount failed to become competitive at the business end of proceedings. With the potential of plenty of dew on top of the surface this morning, the ground should not firm up too much for my selection. COEUR TANTRE deserved a recent success at the seventh time of asking having been placed (exact science) on his three previous assignments.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.
3.30: Nine of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying weights of 11-1 or less whereby the chance of David Pipe’s only raider on the card HOUSTON DYNIMO is respected. Having failed to win on his last eleven starts however, interest can only be offered from a Placepot perspective though in fairness to connections, they have found a decent opportunity for David Noonan’s mount to return to winning ways if he is ever going to. SCHINDLER’S PRINCE and ON THE BRIDGE make more appeal than shorter priced individuals from a value for money perspective.
Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via six renewals thus far, statistics which include three winners.
Course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/4--Tom Neary (good to firm)
1/2--The Wealerdealer (good)
4.05: Six-year-olds come to the party on a five timer having secured five of the last seven renewals and though MINELLA CELEBRATION is the lone vintage representative this time around, Ben Poste’s mount is the call, though I would not want the ground to get any faster than good. That said, MINELLA CELEBRATION should prove to be a safe Placepot inclusion whatever the conditions in this grade/company. Only ROCK OF LEON can seriously be expected to shake up the favourite unless poor fencing becomes an issue in this Beginners’ Chase.
Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners).
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
4.40: Four-year-olds have won six renewals during the last thirteen years, with LOSTOCK HALL (the only ‘junior’ raider in the field) seemingly only having BARWICK to beat on this occasion. I can understand why layers have pencilled in the pair the other way around in the betting, though this self-confessed ‘anorak’ will adhere to his weird and wonderful ways by remaining local to the four-year-old.
Favourite factor: 14 of the last 17 favourites have won this event, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period (before the 40/1 shock gold medallist in 2012) was returned at just 100/30.
5.15: Races confined to conditional jockeys (apprentices basically) often pose questions to punters, certainly from a win perspective though we ‘Potters’ have a slight advantage, not having to seek out the gold medallist when plenty of runners are involved. The trio that make most appeal (I’m not sure that is the right phrasing) consists of FRASER CANYON (see Exeter overview below), ZARLIMAN and BILLY MY BOY. It would be rude of yours truly not to welcome the return to racing at Hereford today. It's interesting that Folkestone racecourse has bet set aside for building development plans for housing in the financial monopoly of the south-east, whereas racing always has more chance for 're-emergence' in the south-west of the country. This opinion is offered by yours truly and may not reflect thoughts of those at Geegeez.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Exeter card.
Record of the course winner in the sixth race:
1/8—Karl Marx (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Thursday:
5 runners—Chris Down (0/1 at Exeter this season)
3—Brian Barr (---)
2—Peter Bowen (0/1)
2—Bob Buckler (---)
2—Mark Gillard (---)
2—Philip Hobbs (---)
2—Simon Hodgson (---)
2—Bernard Llewellyn (---)
2—Katy Price (---)
2—Jeremy Scott (0/2)
2—Richard Woollacott (---)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £4,658.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Hereford: This is a new meeting
Chelmsford: £304.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Exeter overview – Tim Vaughan’s recent stats: 6/15 (level stake profits of 15 points) – 1 runner at Exeter on Thursday: Fraser Canyon (5.15)