SALISBURY - SEPTEMBER 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £30.50 (6 favourites - No winners - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury:
Leg 1 (1.40): 2 (Devil's Bridge), 1 (Deningy) & 3 (Salouen)
Leg 2 (2.10): 1 (Inner Circle) & 7 (Princess Way)
Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Secret Soul), 1 (Contentment) & 5 (Poet's Vanity)
Leg 4 (3.10): 7 (Pussy Galore) & 1 (Argentiere)
Leg 5 (3.40): 8 (Perfect Angel), 6 (Mystic Dawn) & 3 (Elliptical)
Leg 6 (4.10): 6 (Gravity Flow) & 5 (Show Stealer)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: 'Team Hannon' has secured four successes during the last eleven years, with Richard offering the green light to DEVIL'S BRIDGE on this occasion. I would not be telling the whole truth however if I failed to report that the yard was responsible for the long odds on (4/11) beaten favourite in 2013. Out of interest, Richard saddles 'only' five runners on the card, compared to nine entries last year and fourteen in 2014! This renewal looks well up to standard with connections of Richard's Newcastle winner probably fearing the likes of DENINGY and SALOUEN. Trainer stats appear down the bottom of the column relating to juvenile events which dominate the first five races on the card!
Favourite factor: Nine of the fifteen favourites (including nine of the last fourteen) have obliged to date, whilst two of the other six market leaders claimed additional toteplacepot positions.
2.10: A six pound penalty for a Leicester Nursery success might not stop INNER CIRCLE in what looks to be an ordinary two-year-old handicap event. Only two short of reaching his fifty winners in the sector, Richard Hannon would have had dozens of options and the fact that the trainer has opted for his late April (26th) colt is good enough for yours truly. PRINCESS WAY would have to be of interest if turned out again following a fast finishing effort at Lingfield on Wednesday. This additional furlong can only assist the David Evans raider from what we witnessed at the Surrey circuit. Intisha might prove to be the pick of the other runners on a day when Jonathan Portman saddles more runners on a single card than any other trainer, which could be 'a first' for the trainer!
Favourite factor: The inaugural (Richard Hannon trained) 4/1 favourite could only finish fifth of 13 behind horses which filled the frame at 8/1-14/1-8/1, before last year's 7/4 market leader found a rogue 20/1 too good at at the business end of the contest.
2.40: 10 of the last 15 winners scored at odds of 7/1 or less, statistics which include five successful favourites. CONTENTMENT and POET'S VANITY showed enough about them on their respective debuts to be taken seriously here, though Ralph Beckett singled out SECRET SOUL as a really decent prospect earlier in the year via a stable tour and providing she handles her first day at school well enough, Ralph's Street Cry filly could go very close to winning. As a Street Cry filly however, we have to take a realistic approach regarding staking plans.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via the last 24 renewals (many of which were split via divisions) whilst four of the last 17 contests have been snared by horses starting at 66/1 (twice) and 33/1 (twice). 22 of the 27 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.
3.10: Richard Hannon often wins these juvenile Salisbury events and there are not too many two-year-old races on the relevant calendar that 'Team Hannon has failed to win on several occasions. PUSSY GALORE is the Hannon representative and with only ARGENTIERE (third in a half decent Glorious Goodwood race) making any appeal of the experienced horses in the race, the 'Goldfinger heroine' is fancied to go close. INTERWEAVE and TAZMANIA are the other newcomers to consider.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the card, a race which is usually split into heats on this card. The same statistics obviously apply.
3.40: The feature on the Salisbury card gives first time winners MYSTIC DAWN and ELLIPTICAL chances of jumping on the media train en route to even bigger successes towards the back end of the season. Both fillies created extremely favourable impressions though they might have to be really decent types to cope with PERFECT ANGEL who has that little bit of extra experience on her side. A fascinating juvenile event which looks sure to produce a winning filly destined to go a long way in the sport.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last eighteen years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was a 10/1 chance. 12 of the gold medallists have won at 7/2 or less, whilst 10 of the 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
4.10: As regular readers will know, I tend to side with junior (three-year-old) runners in these mixed vintage events and with strong contenders declared here, I see no reason chance my ways. GRAVITY FLOW, SHOW STEALER and TIME TO EXCEED fit the bill on this occasion, the trio being listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: The only non two-year-old race on the Placepot card is a new event.
Salisbury record of runners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/1--Iseemist (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Salisbury card on Thursday:
7--Jonathan Portman (1/10 at Salisbury this season - winner at 8/1)
5--Richard Hannon (5/55 - winners at 16/1-4/1-3/1-4/6*-5/6*)
5--Sylvester Kirk (2/16 - winners at 9/2 & 2/1)
4--Andrew Balding (7/34 - winners at 6/1-4/1-7/2-7/2-11/4*-2/1*-1/5*)
3--Rod Millman (1/25 - winner at 9/4)
3--Eve Johnson Houghton (0/7)
2--Ralph Beckett (5/22 - winners at 5/1-9/2-5/2-9/4-5/6*)
2--Henry Candy (3/20 - winners at 11/2-4/1-4/1*)
2--Mick Channon (7/1 & 2/9*)
2--Paul Cole (0/1)
2--Clive Cox (3/21 - winners at 4/1-3/1**-2/1*)
2--David Evans (2/18 - winners at 10/1 & 10/11*)
2--David Simcock (1/5 - winner at 8/11*)
2--Marcus Tregoning (2/7 - winners at 10/1 & 6/4*)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £24.80 - 9 favourites - 4 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced
Haydock: £11.70 - 6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced
Sedgefield: £60.60 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced
Salisbury overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 1.40 - 2.10 - 2.40 - 3.10 - 3.40:
1/11--Charlie Appleby (Deningby)
27/112--Richard Hannon (Devil's Bridge)
4/30--Sylvester Kirk (Salouen)
5/51--David Evans (Sea Fox)
5/38--Clive Cox (Mach One)
27/112--Richard Hannon (Inner Circle)
4/30--Sylvester Kirk (Star Maker & Latest Quest)
2/20--Jonathan Portman (Intisha)
0/2--Heather Main (Fair Selene)
4/31--Rod Millman (Sir Plato)
5/51--David Evans (Princess Way)
0/5--Ron Harris (Viola Park)
2/11--William Haggas (Contentment)
4/24--Roger Charlton (Cubswin)
2/20--Jonathan Portman (Fresh Fox)
2/14--Marcus Tregoning (Perla Blanca)
7/45--Andrew Balding (Poet's Vanity)
7/51--Ralph Beckett (Secret Soul)
4/31--Rod Millman (Sixth Of June)
0/1--David Menusier (South Sea Belle)
0/4--Richard Hughes (Twenty Times)
2/14--Marcus Tregoning (Argenterie)
0/3--Tony Carroll (Demis Quest)
2/30--Eve Johnson Houghton (Favourite Royal)
4/31--Rod Millman (Holyroman Princess)
2/24--Sir Michael Stoute (Interweave)
2/20--Jonathan Poertman (Mystical Nellie & Tallulah Rocks)
27/112--Richard Hannon (Pussy Galore)
5/38--Clive Cox (Tazmania)
2/30--Eve Johnson Houghton (Bahamadan)
0/7--Paul Cole (Dainty Dandy)
0/1--Robert Cowell (Elliptical)
27/112--Richard Hannon (Grizzel)
0/7--Joseph Tuite (Madam Dancealot)
3/4--David Simcock (Mystic Dawn & Pellucid)
7/45--Andrew Balding (Perfect Angel)
4/30--Sylvester Kirk (Simmie)