Placepot pointers – Thursday September 8

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £5,101.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 9 (Norwegian Highness), 7 (Island Vision) & 4 (Seduce Me)

Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Grecian Light), 5 (Kilmah) & 1 (Blending)

Leg 3 (3.05): 12 (Abingdon), 9 (Simple Verse) & 2 (California)

Leg 4 (3.40): 18 (Mubtasim), 21 Stormy Clouds), 2 (Bohemian Flame) & 16 (Leontas)

Leg 5 (4.15): 8 (Poet's Word) & 6 (Bermondsey)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Glencadam Glory) & 3 (Hydroxide)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: 14 of the the last 16 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, with the top three horses eliminated from my inquiries this time around accordingly. This race constantly destroys the dreams of 'Potters' the length and breadth of the land at the first time of asking on the second day of the St Leger, though this is the smallest field for the contest for seven years.  My 'short list' against the field comprises of NORWEGIAN HIGHNESS (drawn 1/12), ISLAND VISION (7) and SEDUCE ME (12).  The latter named raider represents in form trainer Karl Burke and slides into the 'superior' sector of the handicap via a five pound claimer in the plate.  Before you assume that middle to high numbers might have the edge down the years at this meeting on the straight course, it's worth noting that even in this race, a horse emerging from one of the three lowest numbers has reached the frame in eight of the last nine years, albeit only one at a time.

Favourite factor: Three of the 18 market leaders have prevailed thus far, whilst only six of the other 15 market leaders claimed additional toteplacepot positions.  Aside from the winning 7/4, 9/4 and 3/1 favourites, other scorers included those returned at 20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--10/1.

Draw factor (six and a half furlongs):

20-19-6-16 (19 ran-good)

11-3-13-12 (17 ran-good)

10-2-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

17-1-14-19 (18 ran-good)

1-4-5 (13 ran-good)

1-12-6-10 (18 ran-good)

7-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

16-2-14-8 (16 ran-soft)

3-9-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-8-9 (13 ran-heavy)

11-4-10 (14 ran-firm)

15-12-11-14 (22 ran-good)

5-6-14-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

19-1-14-3 (20 ran-good)

12-22-8-21 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-13-17-16 (17 ran-good to firm)

2.30: Godolphin has secured four of the last five renewals when represented in this event whereby the chance of GRECIAN LIGHT is respected by yours truly and Charlie Appleby's Shamardal filly is a certainty to be included in Thursday's toteplacepot mix.  Joining her there will be the typically tough Mark Johnston raider KILWAH and BLENDING.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have won during the last 19 years (including five of the last nine favourites), whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.

3.05: Three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 19 renewals, though four-year-olds have won four of the last six contests.  SIR MICHAEL STOUTE offers a magnificent raio of 6/12 at Dioncaster this season whereby his three-year-old raider ABINGDON is the first name on the team sheet, especially as his Street Cry filly has won three of her four races this term, having only been beaten two lengths in a Listed contest on the other occasion.  Andrea Atzeni's mount has to improve again to snare this Group 2 prize but that said, how many times has that old adage 'follow a filly in form' worked out down the years.  I have plenty of regard for Ralph Beckett's pair SIMPLE VERSE and PAMONA, whilst plenty of punters will understandably latch onto the chance of CALIFORNIA in a fascinating renewal of the 'Park Hill'.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have prevailed during the last 19 years, alongside a co favourite of three.  13 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

3.40: Horses drawn middle to high have secured an edge in recent times as you can clearly see below and the pick of those drawn ‘favourably’ on this occasion include MUBTASIM (16/22), BOHEMIAN FLAME (9) and STORMY CLOUDS (21).  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though much could change with the burning of a generous amount of midnight oil in the offing. It will be interesting to see just how much influence the draw has this time around, given that runners were coming up the middle of the course in general terms on the opening day of the meeting.   For that reason, I am adding LEONTES (5) into the overnight mix, especially given Andrew Balding's magnificent record with juveniles here on Town Moor during the last five years (see stats below - you will not believe them)!

Favourite factor: 10 of the 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions which is a fair record in this competitive event (four successful market leaders in the last 11 years), especially as just three places are up for grabs in this cavalry charge.

Draw factor (six and a half furlongs):

20-21-8 (22 ran-good

20-11-6-10 (21 ran-good)

15-17-21 (21-good to soft)

10-7-6 (21 ran-good)

13-4-19 (21 ran-good)

4-12-2 (21 ran-good)

21-4-1 (19 ran-good to firm)

16-17-9 (21 ran-soft)

7-20-13 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)

12-17-19 (22 ran-good)

5-15-13 (22 ran-good)

17-18-21 (21 ran-good)

22-20-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

4-10-3 (22 ran-good)

6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

11-4-20 (22 ran-good)

4.15: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last ten renewals, whilst horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1 have won eight contests during the last eleven years.  Just three four-year-ods have been declared this time around and the trio are listed in order of preference as BERMONDSEY, CENTRAL SQUARE and EMERALD.  Holding up against them as I write however is another Sir Michael Stoute horse on the card, namely POET'S WORD.  Michael's Poet's Voice colt made short work of a competitive looking handicap during the Glorious Goodwood meeting and Ryan Moore's mount could take some stopping, even off a ten pound higher mark.

Favourite factor: Nine of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale during which time, two winners have emerged.

4.50: As I'm short of space in terms of my Placepot permutation, I am going to opt for two of the experienced runners in the line up who both snared silver medals at the first time of asking, namely GLENCADAM GLORY and HYDROXIDE.  Had I had enough room to include another entry, Charlie Appleby's newcomer WOLF COUNRY would probably have been the call.

Favourite Factor: Three of the last nine favourites have won during which time, five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.  That said, the other four winners scored at 16/1, 14/1-12/1 and 10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Thursday:

5--Ralph Beckett (2/10 at Doncaster this season - winners at 4/1 & 13/8*)

5--Richard Hannon (1/21 - winner at 10/1)

5--Mark Johnston (3/25 - winners at 7/2-9/4*-4/5*)

4--Andrew Balding (0/3)

4--Richard Fahey (3/59 - winners at 20/1-13/2-5/1)

4--John Gosden (5/22 - winners at 4/1-4/1*-11/4-9/4-2/1*)

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4--David O'Meara (6/43 - winners at 14/1-12/1-9/2-9/2-15/8*-7/4*)

3--Charlie Appleby (7/12 - winners at 12/1-6/1-3/1-3/1**-11/10*-Evens*-3/10*)

3--Michael Dods (2/30 - winners at 20/1 & 10/1)

3--William Haggas (2/15 - winners at 15/8 & 7/4*)

3--Kevin Ryan (1/20 - winner at 11/4*)

2--David Barron (2/15 - winners at 9/1 & 7/1)

2--Les Eyre (1/6 - winner at 10/1)

2--Charlie Hills (1/12 - winner at 8/15*)

2--Dean Ivory (0/4)

2--Aidan O'Brien (---)

2--Hugo Palmer (2/5 - both winners returned at 6/1)

2--John Quinn (1/19 - winner at 10/1)

2--David Simcock (3/10 - winners at 7/2**-5/2-Evens*)

2--Sir Michael Stoute (6/12 - winners at 25/1-5/4*-5/6*-5/6*-5/6*-1/2*)

2--Roger Varian (4/14 - winners at 7/1-13/8-11/10*-8/13*)

+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

98 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £26.90 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £18.60 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced

Epsom: £306.70 - 8 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 6 unplaced

 

Doncaster overview - Juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 1.55 - 2.30 - 3.40 - 4.50:

1.55:

5/23--William Haggas (Glitter Girl)

6/40--Charlie Hills (Arwa)

0/3--Alan Bailey (Rosabelle)

2/17--Karl Burke (Seduce Me)

8/69--Mark Johnston (Storm Cry & La Casa Tarifa)

1/16--David Simcock (Island Vision)

0/3--Robert Eddery (Fire Palace)

2/56--Kevin Ryan (Norwegian Highness)

0/17--John Quinn (Blooming Lovely & The Stalking Moon)

9/68--Richard Hannon (Money In My Pocket)

2.30:

5/28--John Gosden (Blending)

2/56--Kevin Ryan (Bengrace)

9/37--Charlie Appleby (Grecian Light)

4/5--Andrew Balding (Hidden Steps)

8/69--Mark Johnston (Kilmah)

4/13--David O'Meara (Reachforthestars)

2/28--Ralph Beckett (Rich Legacy)

0/6--Sylvester Kirk (Tiburtina)

0/12--James Tate (Urban Fox)

3.40:

2/15--Michael Dods (Bamber Bridge)

4/5--Andrew Balding (Bohemian Flame - Berkshire Boy -  Geneva Convention - Stormy Clouds)

3/25--Roger Varian (Jumira Bridge)

4/25--Brian Meehan (Mutawakked)

0/3--Jonathan Portman (Balgair)

2/8--Jeremy Noseda (Firefright)

1/18--Ed Dunlop (Global Applause)

13/104--Richard Fahey (Scofflaw & Marie Of Lyon)

2/56--Kevin Ryan (Perfect Madge)

No runners--Richard Spencer (Keysersoze)

3/9--Hugo Palmer (Mazyoun)

5/23--William Haggas (Mubtasim)

8/69--Mark Johnston (Rusumaat)

0/4--Phil McBride (Spiritual Lady)

4.50:

5/28--John Gosden (Glencadam Glory)

0/1--Bryan Smart (Helovaplan)

3/9--Hugo Palmer (Hydroxide)

6/40--Charlie Hills (Never Surrender)

No runners--Owen Burrows (Okool)

0/4--David Brown (Saint Cuthberts)

1/13--Aidan O'Biren (The Anvil)

9/37--Charlie Appleby (Wolf Country)

 

 

 

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