LEICESTER - OCTOBER 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £211.10 (7 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Fibonacci), 3 (Sporting Times) & 5 (Lightly Squeeze)
Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Rita’s Man) & 2 (Jet Setter)
Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (Indomeneo), 3 (Cuban Heel) & 8 (Homerton)
Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Ptarmigan Ridge) & 2 (Gorham’s Cave)
Leg 5 (3.55): 1 (Soldier In Action), 7 (Night Of Glory) & 4 (Blakeney Point)
Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Storm Melody), 3 (Hindsight) & 4 (Dodgy Bob)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Nine of the last ten winners have carried nine stones or more which eliminates the bottom two horses if you take the stats seriously. This leaves five entries for us to assess from my viewpoint, even though the discarded pair includes the warm favourite Just In Time. This self-confessed ‘anorak’ is duty bound to follow the figures, whereby FIBONACCI, SPORTING TIMES and LIGHTLY SQUEEZE will figure in my permutation.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 16 winners were priced at 28/1-20/1-12/1-10/1-17/2, whilst ten other outsiders priced between 10/1 and 20/1 reached the frame. 14 of the last 21 market leaders have been beaten, with eleven of those beaten favourites having secured toteplacepot positions.
2.20: The terms and conditions of this selling event greatly favour RITA’S MAN who would be giving much more weight to these rivals if this was a handicap event. Richard Hannon is still poking in the odd winner here and there and his Lawman colt can justify cramped odds in this class/company. JET SETTER is preferred to Traveltalk as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last eighteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.
Record of course winners in the second race:
1/5—Jet Setter (good to soft)
2.55: I tend to be luckier with Richard Fahey’s outsiders rather than his favourites though that said, the chance for his Piccolo colt INDOMENEO is there for all to see, from a Placepot perspective at the very least. CUBAN HEEL and HOMERTON could outrun their respective each way quotes in what has become a ‘dead eight’ contest at the time of writing. Let’s hope that no more defectors rear their ugly heads before flag fall.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.
3.25: It appears that we have two three runner races with just the six horses left in the field, with PTARMIGAN RIDGE, GORHAM’S CAVE and MOHSEN dominating the market at the overnight stage ahead of the three newcomers. The trio are listed in order of preference, not that I would be contemplating a bet from a win perspective aside from our favourite Placepot wager.
Favourite factor: Both (5/6 & 1/2) favourites have won their respective event thus far.
3.55: Mark Johnston has been raiding Leicester to devastating effect this season as you can tell by his 11/27 ratio, statistics which have produced 19 points of level stake profit. Mark has offered the green light to SOLDIER IN ACTION on this occasion, with the four-year-old gelding marginally preferred to NIGHT OF GLORY and BLAKENEY POINT.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader was pulled up some way from home.
Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
1/1—Blakeney Point (good)
1/1—Dance The Dream (good to soft)
4.30: All four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-2, as have the majority of the horses gaining Placepot positions thus far. The stats eliminate half of the field (6/12) if we include potential jockey claims, leaving yours truly with a short list of STORM MELODY, HINDSIGHT and DODGY BOB to consider.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful (11/4) winner.
Record of the course winner in the field in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Joey’s Destiny (good to firma1)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Tuesday followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Michael Mullineaux (2/12 +7)
2—Michael Appleby (0/29)
2—Andrew Balding (2/12 – loss of 1 point)
2—Karl Burke (1/14 – loss of 7 points)
2—Ruth Carr (0/3)
2—Declan Carroll (0/3)
2—Michael Dods (0/1)
2—Christine Dunnett (0/4)
2—Brian Ellison (1/9 – level profit/loss this season)
2—Mark Johnston (11/27 +19)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/3)
2—Derek Shaw (0/9)
2—Marcus Tregoning (1/1 +10)
2—Roger Varian (2/9 – loss of 5 points)
+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £23.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Catterick: £1,277.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Newcastle: £378.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced