SALISBURY – JUNE 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £14.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 62.0% units went through – 6/5* - 9/1 – 11/1
Race 2: 74.6% of the remaining units when through – 15/2 – 2/1* - 7/2
Race 3: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 9/2 – 25/1
Race 4: 49.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 4/1** - 33/1 (4/1**)
Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 2/1*
Race 6: 63.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 7/4*
- Mal’s last five Placepot permutations have been successful, albeit some days showed a loss against stakes. That said, a profit over the five days was established.
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Certain Lad) & 1 (Urban Icon)
Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Wufud) & 5 (Power Of Darkness)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Jurz), 4 (Pilot Wings) & 1 (Honourbound)
Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Lucifugous), 6 (Quick Recovery) & 14 (Scimitar)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Sweet Charity), 1 (Burgonet), 4 (Last Enchantment) & 2 (Fabulous Red)
Leg 6 (4.30): 10 (Recordman) & 8 (King Lud)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: The first point to mention is that there are no course winners on today’s Salisbury Placepot card, in case you thought that the omission was an oversight! Upwards and onward by suggesting that there seems very little reason in opposing the two winners in the field who look likely to finish in the frame at the very least, namely CERTAIN LAD and URBAN ICON. The favourite factor below backs up this theory with the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, mainly because of Mick Channon’s great record here this season, his ratio standing at 4/10 before today’s play. I guess for that reason alone, we should not entirely rule Mick’s ‘second string’ (Dr Smolder) out of the equation.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.
2.30: The same scenario is in place for race two as was the case in the opening event, with two horses dominating the market as dawn breaks over the city of Bristol this morning. WUFUD is much shorter than POWER OF DARKNESS at the time of writing though I’ll wager there will not be much daylight between the pair at the jamstick. The Marcus Tregoning comment about Sir Titan at Goodwood on Sunday proved to be spot on and the same scenario might be in place regarding Power Of Darkness this afternoon.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.
3.00: Talking of Marcus Tregoning, the trainer has a 25/1 chance involved here and HONOURBOUND might outrun those odds with the trainer having scored with two of his last three runners. That said, JURZ and PILOT WINGS could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest as respective trainers Roger Varian and Roger Charlton meet head on again at Salisbury. Their totals at Salisbury down the years; Varian (21% strike rate via 17 winners) & Charlton; 17% S/R via 69 gold medallists. For the record, Marcus Tregoning’s ratio at Salisbury is a 12% strike rate via 22 winners.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby there is no history involved in this novice event.
3.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored when carrying a minimum burden of nine stones and after taking potential ‘allowances’ into account, ten horses are left to assess. I’m opting for LUCIFUGOUS, QUICK RECOVERY and SCIMITAR to get us safely through a trappy contest. David O’Meara has not come to close to winning via his previous four runners at the track down the years but that said, LUCIFUGOUS attracted support overnight and looking at the stats below in the favourite factor column, anything is possible in this event!
Favourite factor: There are three successful market leaders to report from the last decade though be warned, as other gold medallists scored at 40/1, 20/1, 16/1, 14/1, 10/1 (twice) & 9/1 during the period.
4.00: Three-year-olds will make it seven winners in a row in this contest today, with all four declarations hailing from the vintage. Regular readers will be well aware of my stand in these open looking ‘win only’ events, whereby I will offer all four runners into the Placepot equation, hoping that the winner carries the least amount of units into the race. If the proverbial gun was pointed at my head to name the winner, I guess I would opt for Sweet Charity, albeit oh so marginally.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged in the last ten years though the race from a punter’s perspective is not as bad as the previous contest on the card, as the average priced winner is this event was 9/2 during the study period. Half of the market leaders (5/10) finished in the frame.
4.30: The overnight trade price quote of 4/1 for RECORDMAN might prove to be somewhat fanciful by flag fall, with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dubawi having attracted plenty of money since yesterday evening. Six of Saeed’s last fourteen runners have won, whilst 52% of his 31 winners at Salisbury down the year have hailed from his (relevant) three-year-old representatives. KING LUD might prove to be the rival to offer most resistance on the run to the line.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new contest on the Salisbury programme.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.