LEICESTER – SEPTEMBER 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £62.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.25): 1 (Shepherd Market) & 2 (Aim Of Artemis)
Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Beautiful Memory) & 10 (Verve)
Leg 3 (3.25): 6 (Little Poem), 4 (Felisa) & 8 (Still Got It)
Leg 4 (3.55): 7 (Near Kettering), 6 (Harebell) & 8 (Maori Bob)
Leg 5 (4.25): 7 (Graphite Storm), 6 (Qeyaadah) & 2 (Taurean Star)
Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Morning Wonder) & 1 (Lynwood Gold)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.25: The general 9/2 quote for SHEPHERD MARKET looks dangerously close to becoming a ‘bet to nothing’ from an each way perspective, especially with the Clive Cox yard in such ripping form. Clive’s January foal is ‘only’ asked to give her rivals three pounds despite an emphatic Chepstow victory at the second time of asking. I appreciate that Chepstow form rarely fails to impress further down the line but as the first of Clive’s three raiders on the card, I will be investing if 5/1 appears on the horizon. AIM OF ARTEMIS is the obvious danger but I have long since learned that taking 5/1 about a juvenile winner over an 11/8 favourite with its maiden tag still intact is the right way to go – win, lose or draw (each way).
Favourite factor: This contest (having a novice prefix attached) is a new race on the card.
2.55: There is always a danger of homing in too heavily on unraced juveniles from a Placepot perspective because let’s face it, jockeys are seldom hard on newcomers once their chance of winning is gone, no matter what the media (and trainers) might tell you! That having been said, it’s hard to get away from BEAUTIFUL MEMORY here for quite a few reasons, the main ones being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s Invincible Spirit filly is the only horse not drifting in the market at the time of writing, notwithstanding her ‘Rockfel’ entry. Add the fact that Saeed is at last beginning to match the type of strike rate this season that we are used to witnessing down the years and we have a ready-made selection for the race. VERVE is taken to follow Saeed’s March foal home, hopefully being well held at the line. The reserve nomination is offered to REVALUE.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event.
3.25: Ten different trainers have saddled the winner of this selling event during the last decade. Hopefully the dead eight we are left with following an early defection will remain intact which should be the case on good ground. The fact that there is no evidence of rain on the radar in Leicester on the run up to the meeting today should ensure that the projected going prevails. FELISA and LITTLE POEM are the first two horses to be included in my Placepot mix though I must emphasise that any thoughts of placing a win bet in this contest disappeared when I failed to note any market moves at the time of writing. Fancied horses have a reasonable record from a win perspective as you can see below via my ‘favourite factor’ feature, whereby I will add STILL GOT IT into the equation.
Favourite factor: Four winning favourites have evolved during the last decade, whilst the top priced winner during the study period was retuned at 8/1. That said, only one of the six market leaders which failed to win their respective events finished in the frame.
3.55: The last seven winners of this all aged handicap have carried a minimum burden of nine stones whereby the bottom horse in the weights (Pheonix Dawn) looks up against it, albeit in an ordinary contest. That said, supporters of Martin Dwyer’s mount are not totally without hope as three-year-olds won the first six renewals of this event, with Brendan Powell’s raider being one of five representatives on this occasion. Preference however is for the relevant trio of NEAR KETTERING, HAREBELL and MAORI BOB, even though the pilot’s claim aboard the last named Michael Bell raider takes the Big Bad Bob gelding below the superior weight barrier.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via eight renewals thus far. Seven of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—All My Love (heavy)
1/1—The New Pharaoh (soft)
4.25: It’s interesting to note that seven of the last ten winners of this seven furlong event have emerged from the lowest three stalls, with ‘trap one’ registering five victories. GRAPHITE STORM (stall three) represents Clive Cox who has his team in fine fettle, with three of his last five runners having won with plenty of other gold medallists having being saddled during the last few weeks. Although market leaders have a poor record in this Class 3 handicap, it’s impossible to ignore Clive’s Delegator colt, particularly from a Placepot perspective. Other to consider include QEYAADAH and TAUREAN STAR. Stall one has been allotted to course and distance winner EASY TIGER.
Favourite factor: Only one 9/2 (co) favourite have obliged during the last decade during which time, four winners have scored in double figures (within the last seven years). That said, seven of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame though as is (seemingly) so often case, the shortest priced (5/4) favourite finished out with the washing.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Smokey Lane (good to soft)
1/1—Easy Tiger (good to firm)
4.55: From what I can detect, Ryan Moore is having his first ride of the season for Kevin Ryan aboard MORNING WONDER who ran a marvellous race to finish second on his first day at school having seemingly ‘left home’ without his satchel, lunch box and uniform, such was his greenness on the day! LYNWOOD GOLD went one better on debut when sauntering to victory at Epsom under fast conditions and this going should not stop Mark Johnston’s Mastercraftsman colt from going mighty close, despite having to give six pounds to all of his rivals.
Favourite factor: This is another new novice event on the Leicester card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Michael Appleby (0/22)
3—Clive Cox (2/13 – loss of 1 point)
3—Richard Hannon (4/31 – loss of 9 points)
2—Michael Bell (0/6)
2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (0/2)
2—Paul Cole (1/6 – loss of 3 points)
2—Simon Crisford (0/2)
2—Tom Dascombe (2/14 – loss of 4 points)
2—David Evans (2/21 – loss of 2 points)
2—John Gosden (1/9 – loss of 7 points)
2—Charlie Hills (2/12 – loss of 5 points)
2—Barry Leavy (0/5)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/6)
2—Mark Tompkins (0/7)
2—Ed Walker (0/5)
2—Chris Wall (0/4)
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: This is a new meeting on the fixture list
Worcester: £24.00 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W): This is a new meeting on the fixture list