SOUTHWELL – FEBRUARY 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £32.70 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Southwell:
Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (French Mix), 2 (Akkadian Empire) & 5 (Ingleby Spring)
Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Argante), 4 (Ruler Of The Mile) & 8 (The Lock Master)
Leg 3 (3.25): 8 (Epitaph), 5 (Coeur De Lion) & 3 (Swahbuckle)
Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Sooqaan), 1 (Mister Music) & 5 (Treaty Of Rome)
Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Volatile) & 5 (Light Laughter)
Leg 6 (5.00): 3 (Broadhaven Honey) & 4 (Archimedes)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.20: Although 2/1 is proving quote tight with the layers about Star Ascending at the time of writing, 5/2 is freely available on the exchanges to decent sums of money whereby I’m inclined to fancy a few horses against the projected favourite in an open looking contest. FRENCH MIX, AKKADIAN EMPIRE and INGLEBY SPRING fit the bill, though purely from a Placepot perspective you understand.
Favourite factor: Five of the six races on the card are new events.
Course winners in the opening event:
2.55: ARGANTE is the call here albeit my enthusiasm has waned a little given Henry Spiller’s 0/10 record here at Southwell down the years. That said, Henry has his team in fine order and when checking lists of entries the other day, ARGANTE was his only inmate with a potential assignment and sure enough, the trainer has offered the green light to the Fibresand debutant. Three of Henry’s last six runners have won and connections might have the likes of RULER OF THE NILE and THE LOCK MASTER to fear at the business end of the contest. The first named raider won on this card two years ago, though eight ‘sorties’ have subsequently come and gone with adding to that success. The Lock Master is a nine time course winner who can rarely be left out of the mix as ‘course specialists’ on this controversial surface are few and far between.
Course winners in the field:
1/4—Ruler Of The Nile
9/48—The Lock Master
3.25: Although four-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals thus far, EPITAPH is the lone vintage representative on this occasion. Mick Appleby’s raider steps up in trip here and is worth including in the Placepot mix from my viewpoint, especially with so many unknown factors to take into account. One scenario is the fact that five of the eight runners have not run on Fibresand to date whereas EPITAPH has won here at Southwell, albeit via seven assignments. The chance of COEUR DE LION is respected, whilst SWASHBUCKLE could outrun his 9/1 quote this morning, a price which was still in place with two firms (Bet365 & Ladbrokes) at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three winners at 4/1, 6/4 & 4/5. Careful how you tread however, because market leaders have been turned over at 4/5 and 8/11 down the years.
Course winners in the third race:
4.00: Eleven of the twelve runners are course winners whereby it could be argued that this is the toughest puzzle to solve on the Southwell card today. That said, Antony Brittain has his team in fine fettle, whereby the trade press 7/1 quote about SOOQAAN offers value for money with the seven-year-old gelding coming here as a winner of four of his last five races. MISTER MUSIC rates as a definite threat under a five pound claimer, whilst TREATY OF ROME is the call from those offered at double figures in the dead of night.
Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
3/12—Treaty Of Rome
4.30: VOLATILE and LIGHT LAUGHTER look a fairly safe pair to pin our hopes on here if we are live going into the fifth leg of our favourite wager. Offered in no particular order, it would be something of a shock of both horses failed to reach the ‘short field’ frame. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Course winners in the penultimate event:
5.00: This is another (seven runner) short field contest whilst will take some sorting but having selected quite a large permutation already, I am pinning my hopes on two of the four course winners in the field, namely BROADHAVEN HONEY and ARCHIMEDES.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Southwell card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:
4 runners—Michael Appleby (6/44 – loss of 20 points) – 103/645 – loss of 164
3—Keith Dalgleish (2/9 – loss of 3) – 22/140 – loss of 16
3—Scott Dixon (3/32 +8) – 45/446 +37
3—David C Griffiths (4/16 +3) – 11/89 – loss of 18
2—Hughie Morrison (0/3) – 10/60 – loss of 16
2—Olly Williams (1/12 +5) – 3/24 +4
+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
57 declared runners