5 Minute Placepot

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 15th December

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 15th December 2015

 

It should be noted that placed/unplaced records are in line with the ruling of bookmakers, i.e. only one win and one place in races for 5/6/7 runners etc.

 

Corresponding details for Tuesday:

 

Placepot dividends at Catterick for the last four years: 

2014: £121.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2013: £4,462.40 (9 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

2012: £142.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2011: £94.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,205.02

Favourites (27): 9 winners – 6 placed – 12 unplaced

 

'Short field’ (races for 5/6/7 runners) have been responsible for billions of lost Placepot units down the years, and the great dividend at Catterick in 2013 was created by one such event when horses filled the frame at 22/1 and 7/1 with the first three runners in the market all beaten.

What compounds the problem time and again are non-runners, whose Placepot units are transferred onto the favourite.  Two withdrawn horses were responsible for the favourite being sent off at 5/4 and the rest is history as the saying goes.

The opening result (horses filled the frame at 40/1 – 14/1 – 11/1) hardly helped but it is the transfer of units from non -runners onto favourites which are responsible for so many lost bets, especially in win only and short field events.

Punters fail to help themselves at times and the toteplacepot finale at Cheltenham on Saturday was another good example of the trap that investors fall into.

It’s easy in hindsight to suggest that the demise of Pace And Co (in another short field event) created a better dividend than what was expected (£151.80), but why did so many investors make Nicky Henderson’s market a leader a banker in the contest, especially from a Placepot perspective?

Unbeaten going into the race, Peace And Co was made a 4/5 chance to win the contest but his chance in Placepot terms had been trimmed down to 4/7 which given that this was his first race of the season (on tacky ground), looked ridiculous.  As it was he was well beaten because of pulling too hard throughout the race but even if he had been in the firing line, would his jockey have given him a hard time if his chance of actually winning the event had gone on the run in?

A 10/1 chance (Cheltenian) was on offer at 80/1 just to be placed and though he finished out of the frame as well, you might understand the point I am trying to make.

If you added the un-named favourite figures to Peace & Co, the market leader was an 8/15 chance to make the frame via Placepot investors.

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Trainer with at least 3 winners at this corresponding meeting during the study period:

6—Keith Reveley (13/8* - 3/1* - 9/2* - 9/2 – 8/1)

4—Donald McCain (10/11* - 4/1 – 9/2 – 5/1***)

 

Average Placepot dividend at Catterick this season (1 meeting): 23.70

7 market leaders: 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Average Placepot dividend this calendar year at Catterick (NH): £84.28

52 market leaders: 27 winners – 9 placed – 16 unplaced

 

Kempton A/W details:

Average Placepot dividend since the start of November (9 meetings): £181.85

Record of favourites in the relevant Placepot races:

59 favourites in total – 15 winners – 25 placed – 19 unplaced

 

Southwell A/W details:

Average Placepot dividend since the start of November (6 meetings): £125.53

Record of favourites in the relevant Placepot races:

44 favourites in total – 11 winners – 14 placed – 19 unplaced

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