NEWMARKET – APRIL 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £17.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 36.5% units went through – 13/2 – 9/1 – 11/2 (7/4)
Race 2: 65.9% of the remaining units when through – 7/2* - 9/2 – 5/1
Race 3: 52.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 & 5/4*
Race 4: 59.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 12/1 – 10/3*
Race 5: 61.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 5/2*
Race 6: 89.2% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/4** - 7/4**
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Elhafei) & 2 (Aurum)
Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Jaawaal), 11 (Porth Swtan) & 7 (History Writer)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Jackstar), 7 (Van Beethoven) & 8 (Ynys Mon)
Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Symbolization) & 1 (Purser)
Leg 5 (4.10): 10 (Frank Bidge), 6 (Plutonian), 7 (Almoreb) & 1 (Fire Brigade)
Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Msayyan) & 2 (Kew Gardens)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: John Gosden has saddled the last three renewals of this event when represented whereby the chance for ELHAFEI is there for all to see, especially for people like yours truly who are besotted by statistics! John has saddled five winners at this meeting during the last two years and there is every chance that the trend could be extended at the first time of asking in 2018. That said, Charlie Appleby has declared his late May foal AURUM (Exceed And Excel colt) and with Charlie currently boasting ‘recent’ stats of 15/31, William Buick’s mount has to be taken seriously. Giving racecourse experience away plus an additional two months in age might prove be a tough ask however, despite the confidence on the exchanges in the dead of night. If you want to take on the likely market leaders, Robsdelight looks to be an above average type from the Gay Kelleway yard. Ibraz is a likely improver following a half decent debut effort on the other side of the heath at Newmarket last July.
Favourite factor: Five of the twenty favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals, whilst fourteen market leaders finished in the frame. That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2. Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.
2.25: This is the second division of the opening event on the card, the ‘Alex Scott’ event for three-year-olds. PORTH SWTAN is well exposed compared to every other runner in the contest though with the Charlie Hills yard in fine form at present, that experience is offered as a positive factor rather than a negative one. That said, John Gosden (see stats in the opening event) saddles JAAWAAL with obvious claims, whilst David Menuisier’s Canford Cliffs colt HISTORY WRITER ran well in a warm race at Sandown last year. Global Art was weak in the market at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Five of the twenty favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals, whilst fourteen market leaders finished in the frame. That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2. Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less
3.00: I Am A Dreamer is as weak as a kitten on the exchanges overnight and yet punters have not been readily queuing up to hammer into Aidan O’Brien’s Scat Daddy newcomer VAN BEETHOVEN at the time of writing. I’m wondering if the fact that Aidan’s last twelve runners have been beaten has anything to do with that scenario, given that four favourites were included in those recent results, notwithstanding that all twelve started at a top price of 5/1. Either way, YNYS MON and JACKSATE enter my Placepot equation as value for money types as I investigate the ‘exchanges’ later this morning.
Favourite factor: Both renewals have been won by (7/2 & 4/9) market leaders thus far.
3.35: Kevin Ryan has already saddled three turf winner this term (from eight runners) whereby plenty of respect is offered to inmate Stormbringer who was ‘only’ a 16/1 chance in the ‘Gimcrack’ last year following a facile victory at Redcar at the second time of asking. This looks a tough heat however with both SYMBOLIZATION and PURSER having been declared by the powerful respective yards of Charlie Appleby and John Gosden who have been saddling winners for fun of late. I’m not going to choose between the pair this time around as much might have been left to work on by one or t’other for later in the season. Suffice to say that even if that were true, both horses could be a cut above this opposition.
Favourite factor: Five of the last six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.
4.10: Six time winner FRANK BRIDGE is three from four on good to soft ground and with Eve Johnson Houghton among the winners of late, Charles Bishop’s mount is the each way call in the contest, hoping that trap four does not count against the five-year-old. PLUTONIAN, ALMORAB and FIRE BRIGADE are added into the Placepot mix though coming from a top stall number of seven between them, I’m hoping that the ground is fair on both sides of the course.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite secured the bronze medal alongside a Placepot position.
Record of the three course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/2—Fire Brigade (soft)
1/3—Red Tea (good)
1/4—Secret Art (good to soft)
4.45: Eleven of the last twelve winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 and I expect the trend to be extended by the likes of MSAYYAN and KEW GARDENS this time around. The pair is listed in order of preference given the slight worry of the O’Brien horses at this early stage of the season as outlined in a race earlier on the card. That and the fact that John Gosden (MSAYYAN) has saddled two of the last three winners of this Listed event. If the trend of shorter priced winning horses is broken this time around, Dark Acclaim could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty one favourites have secured Placepot positions in the last eighteen years, statistics which include six winners.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Kew Gardens (good)
Record of the two course winners in the 7th (on Placepot) race on the card:
2/7—Accession (good to firm & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.