LEICESTER - OCTOBER 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £42.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Bold Reason), 4 (Faadhel) & 2 (Bombyx)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Sans Souc1 Bay) & 2 (Oakley Pride)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Sir Dancealot) & 4 (Emmaus)
Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (MIrza), 5 (Vibrant Clouds) & 9 (Soie D’Leau)
Leg 5 (4.00): 5 (George Viilliers) & 10 (Prime Minister)
Leg 6 (4.30): 5 (Puramente), 6 (Mr Carbonator) & 1 (Dream Of Delphi)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Plenty of leading stables are represented here with BOLD REASON (John Gosden), BOMBYX (James Fanshawe) and FAADHEL representing Roger Varian. The overnight market (written at five o’clock this morning) tells us very little, other than the fact that Sir Michael Stoute’s raider Whitehall is particularly easy to back though that said, there is precious little money around for any of his nine rivals either.
Favourite factor: Regular readers will know the score as this event has been deemed a new (novice) race by the BHA. The same scenario has been in place for many years, a one mile (Class 4) juvenile event, whereby I will let you be the judge of whether you want to take note of the following stats. The last ten winners have scored at a top price of 11/2, statistics which include six successful market leaders. Eight of the ten favourites during the study period secured toteplacepot positions, give that last year’s market leader was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.
2.30: In a selling event confined to three and four-year-old runners, junior raiders have secured the last six contests, with SANS SOUCI BAY likely to go off a warm favourite this time around. That said, there is not a great deal of confidence at the time writing in terms of market moves, either for the favourite on any of nine of the other ten remaining runners, the exception being OAKLEY PRIDE who appears to have attracted win and place money at double figure prices.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, with five market leaders winning their respective events. That last stat did not include the beaten 2/7 market leader four years ago.
3.00: Although trends are at an early stage in this event, three-year-olds have won two of three renewals thus far via just 28% of the total number of runners (7/25), whilst all three gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-2. The only contender boasting ticks in both boxes this year is SIR DANCEALOT, though six assignments have slipped by since his last success was recorded. That said, Ryan Moore is back aboard for the first time since David Elsworth’s Sir Prancealot gelding was made favourite for the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood when problems at the start ruined whatever chance he might have had on the day. Unless another problem ensues, it’s highly likely that Ryan’s mount will at least finish in the frame, though course and distance winner EMMAUS also attracts the eye as the only Leicester winner in the field, particularly as similar good to soft conditions are likely to be in place.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites has claimed a Placepot position thus far without winning the respective event.
Record of course winners in the third event on the card:
1/1—Emmaus (good to soft)
3.30: MIRZA returns to defend his crown, albeit off a two pound higher mark, whilst expecting to contest this event on a much slower surface this time around. That said, trainer Rae Guest sent out a winner recently and his Placepot chance cannot be dismissed at around the 8/1 mark at the time of writing. VIBRANT CHORDS is all the rage overnight and with Ryan Moore having won on two of just five rides for Henry Candy this term, I doubt the support will stop at 5/2 which is still available in a place or two. Seven time winner Soie D’Leau also fits the bill from a Placepot perspective, albeit the ground will not be as soft as when the Monsieur Bond raider registered his victory on his only previous visit to Leicester. That said, the sire’s stock still run well enough if there is any moisture in the turf at all whereby Tony Hamilton’s mount enters the equation.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the money via two renewals of this event, albeit we await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/1—Mirza (good to firm)
1/1—Soie D’Leau (heavy)
4.00: This race commemorates the great name of Reference Point who won both the Epsom Derby and the St Leger in 1987, before (arguably) an abscess robbed him of the chance of victory in the ‘Arc’ later in the year (ran but failed to win). I doubt there is a horse of half the quality in this line up but upwards and onward in positive fashion by suggesting that John Gosden could achieve a hat trick having declared GEORGE VILLIERS on this occasion. John’s last two winners have only won one of their thirteen subsequent events between them however, whereby I would not get too carried away with a success if that scenario evolves this afternoon. The withdrawal of Breath Caught has taken a lot of the interest away from the contest, albeit PRIME MINISTER ran well enough when finishing second on his first day at school, albeit Yarmouth form is not the strongest in the country by any means. Monet has only been conspicuous by its absence for Ostilio at the time of writing, whereby the jury is still out relating to Simon Crisford’s newcomer.
Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 21 contests, whilst 17 recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions via 21 ‘divisions’ of late.
4.30: Richard Hannon has left the door open to other trainers having won two of the three renewals to date (Richard saddled the bronze medallist twelve months ago) and if overnight support is anything to go by, it looks as though Jo Hughes (PURAMENTE) and Phil Kirby (MR CARBONATOR) are the most likely beneficiaries. If we add DREAM OF DELPHI into the mix (visored for the first time) we should land the dividend, presuming we have reached the last leg of our favourite wager ‘intact’.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished second when securing Placepot positions thus far.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday followed by their ratios at the track + level profit/losses accrued:
4 runners—David Evans (5/26 +2)
4—Richard Hannon (5/36 – loss of 12 positions)
4—Mark Johnston (11/29 +17)
4—Roger Varian (2/11 – loss of 7 points)
3—John Gosden (2/11 – loss of 6 points)
2—Andrew Balding (2/14 – loss of 3 points)
2—Ralph Beckett (1/11 – loss of 7 points)
2—Milton Bradley (0/1)
2—Henry Candy (1/4 – loss of 1 point)
2—Robert Cowell (1/3 +4)
2—James Fanshawe (2/11 +18)
2—Charlie Fellowes (0/2)
2—Phil Kirby (0/4)
2—Sylvester Kirk (1/7 – loss of 2 points)
2—Gary Moore (No previous runners this season)
2—Lydia Pearce (0/1)
2—John Patrick Shanahan (7/26 +26)
2—James Tate (1/8 – loss of 3 points)
2—Ed Walker (0/6)
+ 43 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
90 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hereford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar
Huntingdon: £130.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar