FAKENHAM - DECEMBER 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £24.30 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham:
Leg 1 (12.40): 2 (Banjo Girl) & 1 (Dory)
Leg 2 (1.10): 2 (Mamoo), 6 (Shinooko) & 1 (Pennywell)
Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Royal Plaza) & 6 (Creep Desbois)
Leg 4 (2.10): 5 (Ataman), 3 (General Bux) & 9 (Gin And Tonic)
Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Mullaghboy), 2 (Mortens Leam) & 5 (Tommy The Rascal)
Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (No Hiding Place) & 6 (Rio Quinto)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
12.40: In case you are trying to find the results of this meeting twelve months ago, I should point out that the fixture was held on a Sunday (18th) last year. Instead of giving six pounds to DORY in this opening event, BANJO GIRL potentially receives a ‘16 ounce edge’ via a jockey claim which might enable trainer Lucy Wadham to improve on a decent strike rate at the track during the last five years, stats you can determine at the foot of the column. That said, Warren Greatrex has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect whereby DORY will not go down without showing plenty of resistance I’ll wager. Alongside Banjo Girl, Lucy also saddles POTTERS MIDNIGHT in the contest, though Leighton Aspell’s mount is very much on the comeback trail having registered her one and only victory to date at Southwell two and a half years ago on good ground. Hoping that the meeting passes its precautionary inspection at 8 o’clock, I have offered seasonal stats and those for the last five years for trainers on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have missed out on toteplacepot positions via four renewals to date. A few potential Christmas presents were lost to bookmakers four years ago as both 5/4 joint favourites are still on the missing list. Search parties only managed to locate tearful punters who lamented the fact that a 100/1 chance had scored. The inaugural event was hard on punters too as the 8/11 favourite was turned over, before a 4/7 market leader brought some relief, albeit not to punters on an average wage. The race reverted to type two years ago when the 11/8 market leader was turned over, before a 7/4 favourite score twelve months back.
1.10: All six winners have carries a minimum burden of 11-2 or more, statistics which eliminate two of the ‘dead eight’ runners on this occasion. Both sets of figures below illustrate that Neil King does well with his runners at this venue and MAMOO might add to his success at the track in this grade/company. Soft ground will be the order of the day if the course passes its inspection which could enable Neil’s Sir Percy gelding to have the edge over the likes of course specialist SHINOOKI (runner up at 12/1 in this race last year) and PENNYWELL. The reserve nomination is awarded to Scooby, especially as his trainer Graeme McPherson saddles plenty of winners at this time of year as a rule.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date having gained two gold and three silver medals in their respective events. All five winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 thus far.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
3/7—Shinooki (2 x soft & heavy)
1.40: Olly Murphy saddles the first of his eight runners at the meeting here with ROYAL PLAZA having been offered the green light by the trainer who boasts a 5/14 ratio at the track, his best record at any NH venue to date during his short career. With Richard Johnson having ridden ten of Olly’s 25 NH winners thus far, the figures suggest that ROYAL PLAZA will go close in a race which should not prove difficult to win. That said, Ben Pauling is going well just now (as is usually the case) whereby CREEP DESBOIS looks sure to put in a challenge of some description at the business end of proceedings. Enjoy Responsibility should chase the pair home to ‘next best’ effect.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 & 15/8. That said, the last three renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/2—Mercers Court (good)
1/1—Enjoy Responsibility (good)
1/2—Cody Wyoming (soft)
2.10: Ten of the last twelve Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying 11-1 or more, statistics which include three (7/1, 9/2 & 3/1**) winners. Two of Olly Murphy’s three runners qualify via the trends, whereby ATAMAN and GENERAL BUX are the first names on the tentative team sheet. GIN AND TONIC finished well down the field in this event last year and his official rating has subsequently tumbled but that said, there has been some overnight money for Gary Moore’s raider which comes as something of a surprise. Like Gin And Tonic, Olly’s other runner Hurricane Rita also slips into the ‘inferior’ sector of the weight via a jockey claim. The jury is out regarding course winner Cubswin who has never run on ground softer than good.
Favourite factor: After the (historical) respite from recent results at the meeting in the last event, we return to crocodile infested waters here as the first three winners had scored at 33/1-16/1-7/1. The radar was still running, trying to locate the relevant market leaders who were on the missing list for some time having finished well and truly out of the respective frames. All that was cast aside three years ago however, when the 3/1 joint favourites finished first and third when securing Placepot positions. The last two market leaders have also reached the frame thankfully, stats which include last year’s successful 2/1 favourite. Will the reptiles return to consume thousands of Placepot units this time around?
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
2/10—Gin And Tonic (good & soft)
2.50: It’s interesting to note that Tommy The Rascal finished second in this event twelve months ago behind a horse with a similar mark to that of today’s ‘superior horses’. The interest lies in the fact that ‘Tommy’ was a mere 7/2 chance last year, whereas 18/1 is available about the Jennie Candlish representative this time around. Yes, eight subsequent assignments have been undertaken without a victory recorded during the period, but the differential in prices might be considered as ‘over the top’, despite the seven-year-old running from four pounds out of the handicap. I accept that the likes of MULLAGHBOY and MORTENS LEAM are more logical selections but since when has logic had a great say in results at the ‘gaff tracks’ down the years?
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite sneaked into the Placepot frame via a bronze medal effort.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/3—Mullaghboy (good to soft)
3.20: Despite yesterday’s reversal with a beaten 1/5 shot at Plumpton (as suggested might be the case), Nicky Henderson has his team in good order (six of his last 11 runners have prevailed) and having won this closing event last year, it’s worth noting that NO HIDING PLACE is Nicky’s only runner on the card. The front three horses in the betting look set to dominate and purely from a value for money perspective, I’m also opting for RIO QUINTO ahead of the projected odds on favourite WILLIAM HUNTER to land the dividend for us.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have won the Placepot finale, with the other (4/5) market leader having been beaten a neck when finishing in the official frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Fakenham card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) AND five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued for both periods:
8 runners—Olly Murphy (5/14 +2) – same as this year’s figures
4—Neil King 4/11 +26) – 12/69 - +31
4—Pam Sly (1/2 +1) – 5/19 +17
3—Lucy Wadham (1/5 – loss of 1 point) – 16/61 - +13
2—Jenny Candlish (0/4) – 2/9 – level profit/loss over five year period
2—Caroline Fryer (0/1) – 1/35 – loss of 32 points
2—Warren Greatrex (0/1) – 3/14 - +2
2—Alan King (0/1) – 1/8 – loss of 6 points
2—Oliver Sherwood (1/3 +4) – 4/17 - +7
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
45 declared runners