Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th January



Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £72.40 (7 favourites--1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)


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1.10: Some Southwell 'housekeeping' to offer before I start my analysis.  Favourites in general have performed well in 2016 thus far; 35 races - 37 favourites - 18 winners - 11 placed - 8 unplaced, which explains the poor average Placepot dividend of £64.86.  Four of the five odds on marker leaders have obliged.  It is hardly surprising that Michael Appleby has entered the most runners (five) on Tuesday given his five winners at the track this year, where he has saddled at least one winner in four of the five meetings to date, statistics which include one (15/8) beaten favourite.  Out of interest, Michael winners were returned at 16/1-8/1-9/2-4/1-Evens*.  A teaser of an opening contest, given that five course and distance winners are among the 12 entries, notwithstanding two other horses which have won here at Southwell.  Michael saddles Falcon's Reign with an obvious chance, though Brian Ellison (BOOLASS) and Julia Feilden (STAR OF THE STAGE) have both saddled a few winners of late whereby the chances of their raiders are respected.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to TIGER'S HOME.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame (exact science) to date (no winners).

Southwell record of course winners in the first race:
2/13--Speightowns Kid
1/5--Monsieur Jimmy (C&D winner)
2/6--Tiger's Home (C&D winner
1/4--Danish Duke (C&D winner)
1/1--Scarlet Bounty (C&D winner)
1/8--Falcon's Reign (C&D winner)

1.45: Not too many horses remain in training which have won over any course and distance 12 times, though this is the scenario with GENERAL TUFTO in this event, not withstanding two other victories at the venue!  Whether the eleven-year-old can halt a run of 21 consecutive defeats is debatable, though it should be noted that 11/14 wins to date have emerged in January/February via just 22% of his total number of assignments from a monthly perspective.  GENERAL TUFTO beat ELUM MAC by a neck in this event last year and is now six pounds better in with Neville Bycroft's raider, albeit ELUM MAC is four years younger which might negate the disadvantage in weight terms. THELLO and INCURS FOUR FAULTS are others to consider.
Favourite factor: The two favourites have secured gold and silver medals thus far.

Southwell record of course winners in the second race:
3/12--Roger Thorpe (C&D winner x 3)
4/14--Excelling Oscar (C&D winner)
1/6--Incurs Four Faults (C&D winner)
1/1--Thello (C&D winner)
4/20--Master Of Song (C&D x 2)
1/7--Elum Mac (C&D winner)
14/91--General Tufto (C&D winner x 12)
2.20: Horses carrying a maximum burden of nine stones have secured four of the six available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include both (10/1 & 8/1) winners.  The weight stats are brief I grant you whereby the word 'trend' can hardly be applied though that said, I fancy RUPERT BOY to go well from a Placepot perspective down at the foot of the handicap. LEITRIM TRAVELLER and ROMANTIC COMEDY are the other potential winners in the field from my viewpoint.  
Favourite factor: Both (5/2 & 3/1) market leaders have finished out with the washing to date.  
Southwell record of course winners in the third race:
1/1--Kemsing (C&D winner)

2.50: Three-year-olds invariably get the measure of their older rivals under the terms and conditions of mixed vintage events, especially at this time of year.  BEST NEW SHOW and MISS GOLDSMITH are preferred to ROYAL RETTIE accordingly, though nothing could tempt yours truly with his cash from a win perspective in this weak event.
Favourite factor: Both favourites would have finished second (claiming Placepot positions) but for a technicality whereby one of them (a 4/9 chance) was disqualified.

3.25: The inaugural winner SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN comes here off a three pound lower mark, despite winning one of 10 subsequent assignments, one of which was when unplaced in this race 12 months ago.  Racing off 80 (as opposed to Tuesday's figure of 75) finished out of the frame in defence of his crown.  CROSSE FIRE appears to be the horse to beat given his fine record at the track (see the stats below), notwithstanding the fact that as a four-year-old, CROSSE FIRE still has some potential for further improvement.  BURROUGH BOY cannot be dismissed down at the bottom of the weight at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: The two (11/8 & 7/4) market leaders have claimed gold and silver medals thus far.
Southwell record of course winners in the fifth race:
2/7--Oriental Relation (C&D winner x 2)
3/6--Crosse Fire (C&D winner x 3)
6/23--Sleepy Blue Ocean (C&D winner x 6)
2/12--Bapak Bangsawan (C&D x 2)
1/7--Borough Boy
4.00:  GEEAITCH represents Peter Hiatt who has saddled two of his last four runners to winning effect at odds of 66/1 and 6/1.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of SPIRIT OF THE SEA, A LITTLE BIT DUSTY and SOBER UP.  Let's hope that the Placepot pays a better dividend this time around, though 20 meetings have now passed by since a return broke the four figure barrier at Southwell in the all weather sector. 
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 market leader duly obliged before last year's 13/8 favourite finished out of the money.
Southwell record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/4--A Little Bit Dusty (C&D winner)
1/3--Magic Empress
2/22--Amazing Blue Sky (C&D winner)
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Southwell card on Tuesday:  
5--Michael Appleby
3--Scott Dixon
3--Richard Fahey
3--Julia Feilden
2--Roy Bowring
2--David Brown
2--Karl Burke
2--Neville Bycroft
2--Ruth Carr
2--Tony Coyle
2--Keith Dalgleish
2--Conor Dore
2--Brian Ellison
2--Ivan Furtado
2--Iain Jardine
2--Dave Morris
2--Jamie Osborne
2--Ann Stokell
1--John Balding
1--Marco Botti
1--David Bridgwater
1--Declan Carroll
1--Tony Carroll
1--Robert Cowell
1--Heather Dalton
1--John Davies
1--David Evans
1--Kevin Frost
1--James Given
1--Peter Hiatt
1--Kenny Johnson
1--Philip Kirby
1--Sally Randall
1--Kevin Ryan
1--Deborah Sanderson
1--Derek Shaw
1--Charles Smith
1--James Tate
1--Nigel Tinkler
 63 declared runners
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