ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 19
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years on Day One:
2017: £585.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)
2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £522.47
45 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed 20 unplaced
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 78.0% units went through – 11/10* - 5/1 – 12/1
Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (4/1)
Race 3: 59.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 14/1 – 11/4*
Race 4: 25.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 12/1 – 6/1 (1/2*)
Race 5: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 10/1 – 5/1 – 12/1
Race 6: 9.6% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 12/1 – 25/1 (13/8)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 15 (Rhododendron) & 3 (Benbati)
Leg 2 (3.05): 20 (Swergai Prokofiev), 7 (Calyx) & 23 (The Irish Rover)
Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Lady Aurelia) & 2 (Blue Point)
Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (U S Navy Flag), 9 (Without Parole) & 10 (Wooton)
Leg 5 (5.00): 7 (Chelkar), 20 (Coeur De Lion), 1 (Whiskey Sour) & 11 (Look My Way)
Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Laaraib), 13 (Sharja Bridge) & 15 (Yucatan)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
2.30: Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of RHODODRENDON and BENBATI, horses that possess other firm trends in their favour. Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes in very much the best stepping stone for this event and RHODODENDRON won the event this year with Aiden O’Brien’s raider returning to the type of form he showed of old. It’s worth noting that Aidan’s two winners during the last decade ran in the ‘Lockinge’ in their previous races, albeit without winning their respective contests. No trainer has saddled more ‘Queen Anne’ winners that Saeed Bin Suroor (seven in total) whereby we know that BENBATI has been laid out for the contest for some considerable time. With Saeed having saddled his last winner in the race back in 2007, few people would deny the original ‘blue trainer’ another victory. A far as jockeys are concerned, we have to focus on Ryan Moore (RHODODENDRON) whose record since 2013 stands at 45% in terms of his mounts finishing in the first three, 21% of which were winners! Indeed, Ryan set a post war record in 2015 by riding nine winners at the meeting. Recoletros is the nomination for the overnight reserve, whilst the pick of the big outsiders could prove to be Beat The Bank who although trounced by Aidan’s projected favourite in the Lockinge has, at least, got race fitness back on his side this time around. That said, the last ten winners have all emerged from the front three in the market. Frankie Dettori would have been trying to take the outright lead in the ‘jockey stakes’ in the race but for missing out on a ride, having the same number of winners (six in total) as Sir Gordon Richards.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored in the last twenty one years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.
Record of the five course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:
1/4—Accidental Agent (good to soft)
1/2—Benbati (good to firm)
1/3—Century Dream (soft)
1/3—Limato (goot to firm)
1/2—Lord Glitters (soft)
3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 22 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his Scat Daddy colt SERGAI PORKOFIEV. That said, THE IRISH ROVER won at the Lockinge meeting at Newbury is taking style suggesting that Aidan’s ‘second string’ is no forlorn hope, especially from a Placepot perspective. No trainer has even equalled Aiden’s record in the race, let alone beaten his record. A victory for John Gosden’s Kingman raider CALYX would put a smile on the trainer’s face, the sire having only been beaten (half a length) in the 2014 renewal of the 2000 Guineas in eight races during his wonderful career. Speculative investors could do worse than have a small each way nibble with Advertise. That said, eight of the last ten winners have emerged from the front three in the market.
Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of the two course winners in the Coventry Stakes:
1/1—Blown By Wind (good to firm)
1/1—Getchagetchagetcha (good to soft)
'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:
11 winners—9 placed—25 unplaced.
'Starting prices stats in the last 15 years:
7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-31 unplaced
15/2 or more: 3 winners—-20 placed-—181 unplaced
28/1 or more: No winners-—6 placed—-87 unplaced
Foaling stats in the last 15 years:
January: 1 winner & 7 places
February: 6 winners & 7 places
March: 5 winners & 9 places
April: 3 winners & 5 places
May: No winners & 2 places
3.40: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders and I find it difficult to pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done. I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through. Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal. Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess. We have been assured by media commentators this this event has long since looked to be a match between LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH, though sprint races in particular have long since had a habit of producing ‘pear shaped’ results. Both horses have obvious claims via the form book but tell me something; if the form book is the be all and end all of racing, why are there so many bookmakers rubbing their hands with glee this morning? Indeed, this is the perfect type of race for layers, with punters anxious to get their cash on two horses which ‘couple’ at odds of around 1/2, with twelve other half decent rivals trying to lower their colours! On the face of things bookmakers can’t lose because if the market leaders fight out the finish, layers have an even money chance of the right one winning for them, with only one placed horse in their books costing them money! LADY AURELIA (been there and obtained the t-shirt) is my pick of the duo, though hopefully BLUE POINT will make the pair pull out all of the stops close home.
Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst 12 of the last 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions going back further in time.
Record of the five course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:
2/3—Blue Point (good to firm & good to soft)
1/3—Gifted Master (good to soft)
1/5—Washington DC (good to firm)
2/2—Lady Aurelia (Good to firm & soft)
1/1—Different League (good to firm)
4.20: Let’s get one thing straight to start with. Media commentators will be waxing lyrical about this event but it takes facts to back up big races and this renewal does not ‘cut the mustard’ I’m afraid. The last five winners have averaged an official rating of 122, compared to the mark of 109 for Tuesday’s projected market leader. There is no doubting the potential of John Gosden’s raider WITHOUT PAROLE but that said, his last win was in a Listed event at Sandown whereas last year’s winner was coming off the back off a second placed effort in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last seventeen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany gave Frankel a fright seven years ago. Aidan saddles US NAVY FLAG who is a dual Group 1 winner, albeit as a juvenile. There was plenty to like about his second placed effort in the Irish 2000 Guineas the last day, whilst my trio against the remaining seven contenders is completed by WOOTON who will represent decent Placepot value, as is the case for most overseas raiders.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 19 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 19 years was an 8/1 chance. 15 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.
5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last three years in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of four of the five Willie Mullins raiders into the equation, the pick of which arguably include CHELKAR and WHISKEY SOUR. Ten of the last twelve winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY additionally enter the overnight mix. Eight of the last ten winners emerged from the top four horses in the betting, whilst last nine of the last 14 winners carried weights ranging between 8-12 and 9-3, burdens which are carried by my two English contenders COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last nineteen years (three winners). Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed. I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post. I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps. My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race. With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 22/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective.
Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:
1/1—Sam Missile (good to firm)
5.35: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest (previous contested on the Saturday of the five day meeting) whilst seventeen of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of LARAAIB, SHARJA BRIDGE and YUCATAN. That said, Sir Michael Stoute’s raider MIRAGE DANCER only carries 16 ounces over the ‘superior barrier’ whereby Michael might finally take the trainer record from Sir Henry Cecil, the pair each having saddled a staggering 75 winners at the royal meeting.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.
Course record of the course winner in the Listed Wolferton Handicap:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.