YARMOUTH – SEPTEMBER 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £137.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unpalced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Yarmouth:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Mutaaqeb), 1 (Mashaheer) & 5 (Rule Of Honour)
Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Noble Manners) & 1 (Simpson)
Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (High End) & 3 (Intellect)
Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Fortria), 8 (Sexy Secret), 6 (Magic Beans) & 10 (Mungo Madness)
Leg 5 (4.10): 8 (One Master) & 4 (Perfect Sense)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (North Creek), 3 (Quatrieme Ami) & 7 (Ocean Temptress)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: The first thing I must mention having looked at the overnight exchanges is that Mandarin Princess is coming in for a little support at 50/1 as well as exchange activity though at present, we are talking small liquidities. More obvious winners in the line up include the Invincible Spirit newcomer MUTAAQEB from the Owen Burrows yard and MASHAHEER. Money for RULE OF HONOUR would be worth heeding in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to start proceedings at Yarmouth.
2.35: Mark Johnston is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this Nursery event during the last decade and as a winner in this grade at Newmarket in July, NOBLE MANNERS is the first name on the team sheet. The general quote of 7/1 about Mark’s (good to soft winner) Myboycharlie filly makes plenty of each way appeal, albeit this is a ‘short field’ event. Ed Walker’s raider SIMPSON will also find the ground a little softer than is ideal for the Dragon Pulse gelding though that said, this pair should get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager. The reserve nomination is awarded to LUCIFUGOUS. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last seven contests during which time, five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the second race on the card:
1/1—Midnight Wilde (good to firm)
3.05: HIGH END had drifted a little overnight but not enough for us to become alarmed, particularly as far as his Placepot prospects are concerned. Saeed Bin Suroor’s unbeaten Dubawi representative has to be included in the mix, albeit in an interesting race which probably means that this will be another event on the card where my ‘powder remain dry’ in terms of considering a bet from a win perspective. There will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the card than ZACK MAYO I’ll wager, though INTELLECT is considered as the rival that HIGH END has to beat in order for his 100% record to remain intact.
Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick having won three of the five renewals to date. The last five market leaders have all finished in the frame following the complete demise of the inaugural 10/11 favourite back in 2012.
3.40: This is practically a ‘seller’ in all but name and one of the few things about the race which catches the eye is that SDS is given the leg up aboard a Dean Ivory raider (FORTRIA) for only the third time according to my figures. SEXY SECRET, MAGIC BEANS and MUNGO MADNESS are added into the equation, hoping that this is the race on the card that will propel the potential Placepot dividend into orbit.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Yarmouth programme.
1/10—Sexy Secret (good to firm)
4.10: William Haggas won this race with his previous runner in the race (winning favourite two years ago) whereby I’m latching on to his Fastnet Rock filly ONE MASTER who overcame problems to finish a fine third in a much better race at Doncaster on debut last month. Too many ‘good things’ have come unstuck down the years in terms of expecting juveniles to win after just one race in which they have shown promise, whereby I will simply expect Ryan Moore to steer the market leader home, chiefly at the expense of PERFECT SENSE. Saeed’s raider is (potentially) asked to give the filly just two pounds thanks to a jockey claim which could make the race interesting at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have won with all four market leaders having finished in the frame. The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, stats which have produced four successful favourites.
4.45: Without an edge via previous renewals to work with, I am guided (as much as anything else) by three each way types who have attracted money overnight, namely NORTH CREEK, QUATRIEME AMI and OCEAN TEMPTRESS. If you are content to eliminate one or two of the runners I have included in the fourth race on the card, you might want to add soft ground course winner ROBBIAN into the mix here. Chris Wall (NORTH STREET) is (respectfully) not a name which is banded about too often is terms of headlines in the sport, but it’s worth reporting that this much underrated trainer has saddled no less than 74 winners at Yarmouth down the years, nearly forty winners more than his best other turf track ratios at Windsor and Newmarket (July course). Not only are his horses here always worth a second glance but equally, it often pays to look out for his representatives that have been sent to another course when Yarmouth stages fixtures. For the record, Chris sends two horses on the long journey to Newcastle tonight. A minimum stake patent has been invested by yours truly. If either of those ‘away runners’ are successful tonight, keep an eye on the runners away from Yarmouth on Wednesday and Thursday. Chris has one in at Sandown tomorrow and two potential runners elsewhere on Thursday.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third of the new races on the Yarmouth card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Yarmouth card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3—Phil McBride (2/17 – loss of 3 points)
3—John Ryan (3/21 – loss of 9 points)
2—Roger Charlton (1/1 +1)
2—Christine Dunnet (0/22)
2—Chris Dwyer (4/21 – loss of 2 points)
2—Robert Eddery (2/8 +2)
2—William Haggas (5/25 +1)
2—Dean Ivory (2/21 – loss of 11 points)
2—John Jenkins (0/24)
2—Mark Johnston (1/11 – loss of 3 points)
2—Laura Mongan (No previous runners)
2—Sir Mark Prescott (4/8 – slight profit)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)
+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
61 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £165.80 – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Redcar: £21.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Newcastle: This is a new fixture on the calendar