GOODWOOD – AUGUST 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £78.80 (9 favourite - 3 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (1.50): 15 (Garcia), 11 (Eddystone Rock), 5 (Murad Khan) & 1 (What About Carlo)
Leg 2 (2.25): 9 (Seahenge) & 3 (Expert Eye)
Leg 3 (3.10): 15 (Dream Castle), 14 (Spirit Of Valor) & 1 (Aclaim)
Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Big Orange) & 16 (Stradivarius)
Leg 5 (4.10): 14 (Tribal Quest), 1 (Algam) & 7 (Lake Volta)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Boom The Groom), 7 (Atletico) & 11 (Dark Shot)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: 12 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more, whilst four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 11-4 during the extended study period. Mark Johnston is not represented which is a real body blow as the leading trainer at this meeting in recent years has won this event four times in the last eight years. Upwards and onward by suggesting that GARCIA, WHAT ABOUT CARLO, MURAD KHAN and EDDYSTONE ROCK should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager between them. GARCIA has the look of a ‘plotted’ Richard Fahey horse and no mistake, the four-year-old having got into the race bang on the 8-11 mark. The booking of Ryan Moore also catches the eye, the pilot having totally dominated this meeting from the saddle last year with eight victories to his name. John Best has his team in red hot form with five of his last seven runners having won, whereby EDDYSTONE ROCK is the speculative win and place call in a typically intriguing opening race at ‘Glorious Goodwood’.
Favourite factor: The previous 17 favourites had all been beaten before one of the 8/1 joint market leaders obliged in 2015. Similarly, one of the four 8/1 co favourites snared gold last year as well. 13 of the last 19 market leaders have finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winners in the opening contest on the card:
1/2—What About Carlo (good)
1/6—Noble Gift (good)
1/5—Oasis Fantasy (good)
2.25: 'Team Hannon' has won four of the last seven renewals, though Richard’s Epsom winner SALLAB will seemingly have to improve significantly just to reach the frame in what appears to be another hot renewal of the Vintage Stakes. Aidan O’Brien has saddled the last two winners when represented and Ryan Moore again looks to have the plum mount in SEAHENGE who won at the first time of asking for the stable at a time when most of its juvenile were needing a second run before scoring. Sir Michael Stoute has only saddled one winner (2000) but the popular trainer will not have had many better chance of doing so than this year as his Acclamation colt EXPERT EYE looked really impressive when winning at Newbury on his first day at school under similar conditions to what should be in place this afternoon at Goodwood.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 20 favourites have prevailed, whilst 13 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
3.10: Three-year-olds have secured five of the last ten renewals of the Group 2 Lennox Stakes and this year’s two relevant raider both look to have each way claims at the very least. Indeed, what money has been around overnight appears to have revolved around each way speculation that Saeed Bin Suroor’s Frankel representative DREAM CASTLE could improve enough here to land the spoils. SPIRIT OF VALOR is the other junior raider, Ryan Moore having a genuine chance of going close in the first three races on the card aboard Aidan O’Brien’s War Front colt. The first renewal was run back in 2000 with Aidan still searching for his first winner in the race, whilst Saeed’s two victories were gained between 2006 & 2006. Those of you that go back a while in the game might have wondered whatever happened to the Beeswing Stakes which was run at Newcastle in the old days, when asking for more than a half crown in pocket money only resulted in being given less than you were offered in the first place, accompanied by a boot up the backside. This race replaced the ‘Beeswing’ on the calendar. Upwards and onward by suggesting that if the juniors are to be repelled this time around, ACLAIM might prove to be the joker in the pack. Martyn Meade’s Acclamation colt might just become a seven furlong specialist (a rare breed) given his two wins over the trip, whereas some of the more fancied runners in the race are trying out a seventh furlong to see if that is where their future lies. A decent stall position (2/15) will have given connections cause for further optimism I’ll wager. The reserve (each way) nomination is awarded to JUNGLE CAT.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored via the last 18 renewals, whilst 14 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the Lennox Stakes:
2/3—Dutch Connection (2 x good to firm)
1/3—Jungle Cat (good)
1/1—Oh This Is Us (good)
1/5—So Beloved (soft)
3.35: The ground has seemingly dried out enough to give BIG ORANGE a sporting chance of landing his hat trick in this event following his gutsy display to win the Ascot Gold Cup six weeks ago. The memory of that thrilling battle at the Berkshire venue will remain in the memory vault for a good while and Michael’s warrior well and truly deserves his place at the top of the market. I am still left wondering if the true reflection of that Ascot success lies in the fact that two miles might be a little sharp for BIG ORANGE if a progressive horse such as STRADIVARIUS is on his ‘A game’. I’m aware that connections believe that the St Leger is his real target now having won the Queens Vase over its shortened trip recently. That said, there was a great deal to like about that performance, albeit I also appreciate that John Gosden aims his three-year-old at a race which vintage representatives have not won since 1990. If readers are looking for an outsider to give them a run for their money, Qewy is the call, given that 25/1 (available in two places at the time of writing) looks a tad too big according to the gospel of yours truly. Talking of odds, Bet365 are out on a limb by offering the favourite at 10/11 with 4/5 being quoted by most firms. In case the difference does not look particularly alarming, the differential on the abacus is the same as a horse drifting from 10/3 to 4/1. By the by, are the officials at Goodwood aware (?) that people of a certain age dislike the racing calendar being ‘messed around’, with this event now being featured on the opening day of the meeting, not that I am among its number obviously!
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen renewals of the Goodwood Cup, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the last thirteen years was returned at 8/1.
Record of course winners in the Goodwood Cup:
2/3—Big Orange (good & good to firm)
1/3—Sweet Selection (good)
4.10: Godolphin won the race last year via a Seed Bin Suroor raider and it is the turn of Charlie Appleby to potential ‘follow up’ on behalf of the blue colours with TRIBAL QUEST, who deserves to win at the third time of asking after two solid silver medal efforts to date. Charlie boasts a great 35% strike rate with his juveniles this season, results which have produced the thick end of 20 points of level stake profit. We are not going to get rich backing William Buick’s mount this time around, though I will settle for any winner at this meeting, whatever the odds on offer. ALGAM and Mark Johnston’s newcomer LAKE VOLTA are feared most.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 17 gold medallists were returned at odds of 13/2 or less (five winning favourites), though the 50/1 winner in 2004 was only cheered on by the layers in general terms. Six of the last eight market leaders have missed out on toteplacepot positions, stats which do not include last year’s renewal when the 5/6 market leader was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.
4.45: BOOM THE GROOM won this event last year having finished fourth in the inaugural contest twelve months earlier. Trainer Tony Carroll has saddled three winners on the opening day of this meeting in recent years which have been sent off at 25/1, 22/1 & 13/2. Any ease in the ground would be bonus for connections of PETTOCHSIDE, though John Bridger and his team look to have been sending their prayers in the wrong direction. John has a conundrum on his hands because plenty of the wet stuff looks set to fall during the rest of the week, though his hopes of getting into the two Goodwood races on Saturday in which Pettochside is entered depend on plenty of horses being pulled out. Twist or stick? Others to consider include ATLETICO and DARK SHOT.
Favourite factor: The two (5/2 & 7/2) market leaders have found one too good for them from a win perspective thus far whilst claiming Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/6—Boom The Groom (good)
1/6—Vibrant Chords (good)
1/7—Confessional (good to firm)
3/10—Pettochside (2 x soft & good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with positive stats at Goodwood this season with two runners of more (level stake profit in brackets):
5/9—Henry Candy (+16)
2/5—Hugo Palmer (+3)
2/7—Roger Varian (+4)
2/9—Charlie Hills (+6)
1/3—Ed Walker (slight profit)
1/6—Marcus Tregoning (+3)
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Beverley: £98.50 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced
Yarmouth: £23.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed
Perth: £12.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Worcester: £86.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced