LEICESTER - MARCH 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £73.90 (7 favourites: 3 winners--1 placed--3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £639.99
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £958.51
Average Leicester Placepot dividend in 2016: £204.90 (3 meetings)
Favourite records at Leicester in 2016:
18 races - 22 favourites - 8 winners - 5 placed - 9 unplaced (exact science)
Odds on ratio: 3/6
Quick stat: David Pipe is the only trainer to have saddled two winners at Leicester in 2016 (8/11* & 8/1) - Seasonal stats at Leicester: 3/7
Two runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday: Abracadabra Sivola (3.50) & Spending Time (4.50)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.20): 1 (I Am Colin), 4 (Lord Landen) & 5 (Merchant Of Milan)
Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Bredon Hill Lad) & 5 (Some Finish)
Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Robbie) & 1 (Bobcatbilly)
Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Lockstockandbarrel), 2 (Abracadabra Sivola) & 3 (Tsar Alexandre)
Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Man Of Steel) & 5 (Mister Teddy)
Leg 6 (4.50): 4 (One For The Boss) & 2 (Spending Time)
Suggested stake:144 bets @ 20p a line
2.20: Nine of the last ten winners have carried eleven stones or more, as have eleven of the thirteen gold medallists, which effectively eliminates two of the seven runners. Nigel Twiston-Davies boasted stats of 5/17 before last year's meeting and the trainer is only one behind that total this term from the same number of runners. Nigel saddles two runners on Tuesday's card, the first of which is I AM COLIN in this opening contest. LORD LANDEN and MERCHANT OF MILAN appear to be the main dangers.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, whilst only six of the fourteen jollies have reached the frame during the study period. That said, eight winners during the last decade scored at odds of 9/2 or less.
Leicester record of course winners in the first race:
2.50: Upwards and onward by informing that ten of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 11-8 or less and my duo against the field from the relevant sector of the weights are BREDON HILL LAD and SOME FINISH. The latter named Robin Dickin raider is a course and distance winner, whilst nine-year-old BREDON HILL LAD represents the vintage which has claimed four of the last seven contests.
Favourite factor: Just three favourites have obliged via the last seventeen renewals, whilst four of the last thirteen gold medallists scored at 33/1-22/1-12/1-10/1.
Leicester record of course winners in the second event on the card:
1/2--Some Finish (C&D winner)
3.20: ROBBIE looks weighted to win this Hunter Chase event, having plenty in hand of the likes of of BOBCATBILLY, WINGS OF SMOKE and TONY STAR via official ratings. The class acts in the field finished well clear of their rivals in the first running of this event twelve months ago and I expect this renewal to follow that briefest of brief trends. At suggested plenty of times in the past, favourites in this sector of the sport produce the best ratios under either code of the game.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.
3.50: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals (the vintage was only represented by a 66/1 outsider four years ago) and the trend looks set to be extended here via the declaration of LOCKSTOCKANDBARREL. That said, the David Pipe stats mentioned earlier in the column demand respect for his raider ABRACADABRA SIVOLA, whilst TSAR ALEXANDRE cannot be discounted at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include six winners.
4.20: Alan Hill (MAN OF STEEL) and Fred Hutsby (MISTER TEDDY) have plenty of experience in the Hunter Chase sector and this pair will get us safely through to the final leg of our favourite wager. Just in case a non runner should rear its ugly head, Cooladerry King is mentioned in dispatches at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: This is a new (Hunter Chase) event on the card.
4.50: Nine-year-olds have claimed seven of the last thirteen renewals and with dual course and distance ONE FOR THE BOSS being the lone vintage representative on this occasion, Dai Burchell's raider is the first name on the team sheet. SPENDING TIME is offered up as the main threat ahead of Gemstone Trail.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged via twelve contests during the last eighteen years, with outsiders having scored at 80/1-20/1-14/1-14/1 via the last thirteen renewals.
Leicester record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
2/2--One For The Boss (Dual C&D winner)
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday:
3--Fergal O'Brien (Leicester stats this season: 2/9)
2--Fred Hutsby (0/1)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (0/8)
2--David Pipe (3/7)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/17)
+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card.
46 declared runners