TAUNTON – FEBRUARY 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £116.50 (7 favourites: 3 winners--2 placed--2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Taunton:
Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (The Russian Doyen) & 13 (Esprit De Somoza)
Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Chilli Filli) & 7 (Oscar Rose)
Leg 3 (3.10): 9 (Cucklington), 3 (Muffins For Tea) & 1 (Will O’The West)
Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Coiltte Lass), 1 (Unison) & 6 (Black Mischief)
Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Lillington) & 7 (Bajardo)
Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Black Narcissus), 1 (Odello) & 8 (Bisoubisou)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: I was expecting some overnight support for the Paul Nicholls raider CHOIX DES ARMES following a wind operation for Paul’s six-year-old gelding but all the cash has been for ESPRIT DE SOMOZA from the Nick Williams yard. There is monetary evidence (via the exchanges) that Nick’s Huntingdon winner is expected to follow up his 20/1 Huntingdon success after a fairly ordinary effort on his Sandown debut. Whether the recent victory warrants a quote of 4/7 from Betfred/Tote is open to question, especially with another winner in the field (THE RUSSIAN DOYEN) and an interesting Dan Skelton newcomer in his Sea The Stars gelding SEA OF MYSTERY. This race will answer a few questions either way.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings
2.40: Tread carefully here (see favourites stats below) because although only a few horses in the field make any appeal from a win perspective, such cash should be kept for another day aside from our Placepot interest. The likes of OSCAR ROSE and CHILLI FILLI will surely figure in the finish at the business end of proceeding, closely followed by BIG ROBIN I’ll wager, but that’s where my interest ends outside of my Placepot permutation. The two ‘main players’ from my viewpoint hail from the in form (respective) yards of Fergal O’Brien and Henry Daly who comes here on a four timer via recent stats of 10/27.
Favourite factor: All three (very short) odds on favourites had finished in the frame via the first three renewals, though only one had prevailed from a win perspective. The ratio increased last year with the 15/8 prevailing from the Nicky Henderson yard.
3.10: Colin Tizzard secured a 14/1 double on the corresponding card two years ago whereby the win and place chances of both CUCKLINGTON and MUFFINS FOR TEA are respected. Colin has four chances on the card and I could envisage the trainer saddling a winner or two, especially as Paul Nicholls has only declared two inmates at a venue where he has ‘run riot’ on several occasions. I’m also adding WILL O’THE WEST into the Placepot mix, believing that this contest could blow thousands of Placepot units out of the equation heading towards the halfway stage of the card.
Favourite factor: Last year’s (Nicky Henderson trained) 9/4 favourite was one of the two horses in the field which failed to complete the course in the first running of this event.
3.45: Five-year-olds have won four of the seven contests thus far, whilst five of the last six gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 11-1. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence this time around (wake up trainers), whilst UNISON is the only horse with a tick in the box via weight trends given the various jockey claims. Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners in the last four years (alongside a silver medallist) whereby the chance of COILLTE LASS is respected despite the 9/1 quote by Stan James (8/1 across the board elsewhere). The reserve nomination is awarded to BLCK MISCHIEF.
Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame (two winners at 7/4 & 5/2**) via seven renewals to date.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
1/2—Colillte Lass (good)
1/2—Our Merlin (soft)
1/52—Dovils Date (soft)
4.15: Ballyegan is the only horse on the Taunton card to have won at the track on more than one occasion (see stats below), though even a seven pound claimer might not be enough for the old boy to sneak into the frame, let alone win the contest. LILLINGTON makes a great deal of appeal and it’s worth noting that there is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive exchange queue for Colin Tizzard’s final runner on the card at the time of writing. Others for the mix include BAJARDO and (possibly) CKALCO DES LOGES.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Taunton programme.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/4—Triple Chief (good)
4/16—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)
4.50: Richie McLernon rode a lovely race aboard Regal Encore for us on Saturday and I’ve a notion that the underrated pilot could go close aboard BLACK NARCISSUS in the finale. The potential market leaders in the field hold obvious Placepot chances at the very least, namely ODELLO and BISOUBISOU.
Favourite factor: The first two favourites obliged at 5/2 & 13/8 before one of the two 13/2 joint favourites finished in the money twelve months ago without winning contest.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by stats this season (in brackets) + their five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
4 runners—Colin Tizzard (4/25 – loss of 4 points) – 15/107 – loss of 23
3—Nigel Hawke (1/13 – loss of 9) – 3/57 – loss of 40
3—David Pipe (1/14 – loss of 11) – 17/163 – loss of 75
3—Dan Skelton (0/13) – 10/56 – loss of 18
3—Tim Vaughan (0/14) – 8/86 – loss of 40
2—Bob Buckler (0/2) – 7/50 – loss of 15
2—Henry Daly (0/1) – 1/10 loss of 6
2—Jimmy Frost (1/6 +4) – 2.45 – loss of 24
2—Paul Nicholls (6/31 – loss of 19) – 56/184 – loss of 11
2—Jeremy Scott (2/5 +7) – 8/52 – loss of 14
2—Evan Williams (0/16) – 13/92 loss of 17
2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 9/59 – loss of 9
2—Kayley Woollacott (0/2) – 0/2
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Wetherby: £216.40 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £40.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced