WETHERBY – MARCH 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £55.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 84.4% units went through – 9/2, 85/40* & 5/2
Race 2: 62.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* (Win only)
Race 3: 41.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1, 4/1* & 25/1
Race 4: 34.1% of the remaining units went through – 13/2, 12/1 & 13/2 (9/2)
Race 5: 38.6% of the remaining units went through – 5/2*, 28/1 & 10/1
Race 6: 46.7% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2, 4/1 & 8/1 (15/8)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Saucysioux) & 1 (Little Bruce)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Progress Drive) & 2 (Sainte Ladylime)
Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Monfass), 1 (Quest For Life) & 2 (Final Choice)
Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Eminent Poet), 2 (Issacstown Lad) & 6 (Dedigout)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Newberry New), 8 (All My Own) & 7 (Doktor Glaz)
Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Lastin Memories) & 4 (Instingtive)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: Richard Johnson (see stats at the foot of the column) travels ‘oop north’ for just two rides today, the first of which is SAUCYSIOUX who is turned out again just four days after a silver medal effort at Fakenham on Friday when most eyes were looking in a south westerly direction away from the ‘specialists track’ in Norfolk. Olly Murphy appears to have found a good opportunity for his eight-year-old Tobougg mare to return to winning ways. Dual course winner LITTLE BRUCE looks to be the obvious alternative call is you fancy the favourite to get turned over in the first event on the card.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/10** & 7/4) winners.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
2/5—Little Bruce (2 x good to soft)
2.30: I’m not about to blind you with science in this two runner contest as there is precious little to choose between PROGRESS DRIVE and SAINT LADYLIME any which way you look at the race. As an example, I’ll offer 2018 stats for the two trainers, which confirms the statement. Nicky Richards (Progress Drive) boasts stats of 9/55 this calendar year (16.3% strike rate) compared to Kim Bailey’s 16.4% ratio via figures of 12/73. Simply include both horses in your permutation and move on.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won all three contests to date.
3.05: All three winners have carried 11-3 or more to date as have four of the nine horses which have finished in the frame (exact science), via 61% of the total number of runners. MONFASS, QUEST FOR LIFE and FINAL CHOICE are duly elected (accordingly) to serve as Placepot representatives in the Yorkshire constituency today!
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders secured Placepot positions, stats which produced one (10/3) winner to date.
3.40: 8/1 about EMINENT POET looks too big a price at the time of writing and I expect this Venetia Williams raider to go close to secure the trainer’s sixth winner at the track (during the last five years) which she visits infrequently. I guess that I should point out that the first of her two runners runs in the previous race on the card, namely Bonne Question. Others to consider in this event include ISSACSTOWN LAD and DEDIGOUT who will offer better value for money than Warthog according to the gospel of yours truly. Whilst on the subject of ‘gout’, don’t listen to old wives takes about port causing the problem though if you are a fellow sufferer, for goodness sake do not eat some of the foods which are supposedly good for us, including oily fish and offal (sardines/mackerel/liver etc); Big Mal, News At Seven, Bristol!
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wetherby card.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
4.10: Two non-runners have already reared their ugly heads and another pair confined to barracks would take this event into dangerous win only waters. In the anticipation of connections looking for relatively easy prize money however, NEWBERRY NEW, ALLMYOWN and DOKTOR GLAZ are offered up to take us into the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Detectives are still searching for the last two favourites that missed out on Placepot positions after the first (9/4) market leader finished in the frame.
Record of the three course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/4—Newberry New (soft)
1/2—Top Cat Henry (good to soft)
1/3—Doktor Glaz (good)
4.45: There won’t be much of the trade press price of 10/1 about LASTIN MEMORIES on offer by the time that you read this analysis I’ll wager. The average price at the time of writing is 8/1 with an anticipated SP of 15/2 in the making. Seven-year-olds have won half (3/6) of the renewals to date, whereby INSTINGTIVE could well land his hat trick following decent gold medal efforts at Ayr and Carlisle of late.
Favourite factor: Only two of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in our finale, stats which have produced one (5/2) winner.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Specific stats for Wetherby today:
Richard Johnson has two booked rides in the first and last events which makes for interesting reading. Richard rides Saucysioux in the 2.00 and Up To No Good in the closing event at 5.15.
Richard boasts a ratio of 9/19 at the course this season, figures which have produced 23 points of level stake profit.
If we go back five years, the champion jockey offers a 26% strike rate via 19 winners at the popular Yorkshire venue.