FAKENHAM - NOVEMBER 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £64.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 placed)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham:
Leg 1 (12.50): 4 (Minstrel Royal), 1 (Nautical Nitwit) & 2 (Cliffside Park)
Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Maid Of Milan) & 2 (Kayfleur)
Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Barrd), 3 (Chilli Romance) & 4 (Cocker)
Leg 4 (2.20): 1 (Holbrook Park), 3 (Red Hanrahan) & 4 (The Lion Dancer)
Leg 5 (2.50): 6 (Broadway Belle) & 2 (Dizzey Heights)
Leg 6 (3.20): 3 (Mercian King) & 1 (Movie Legend)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.50: A tough opening leg of our favourite wager, not least because the outsider of the field is the only horse to have attracted money in the dead of night. Ex Nicky Henderson trained MINSTREL ROYAL can still be backed at 14/1 with Betfair which could be worked as a small bet/saver (at the very least) if you don’t particularly fancy any of his rivals. James Bowen is receiving rave reviews this season and his five pound claim should enable NAUTICAL NITWIT to become competitive at this level, with similar comments also applying to Richard Johnson’s mount CLIFFSIDE PARK.
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one successful (85/40) market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/1—Cliffside Park (good)
1/19—Occasionally Yours (good)
1.20: James Bowen (MAID OF MILAN) and Richard Johnson (KAYFLEUR) have secured the plum rides here, albeit such terminology is a little over the top in this grade! The pair have to be listed in order of preference given the chasing records of 1/2 & 0/10 respectively. Similarly, Armedandbeautiful is listed ahead of Frank N Fair of the other entries, given that Zoe Davison is still looking for her first victory at the track having saddled fourteen losers during the last five years. Indeed, Zoe offers a level stake loss of 52 points via career figures of 1/55 at Fakenham.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have snared Placepot positions, three of the market leaders having prevailed at 11/10 (twice) and 15/8.
1.50: I would be a tad worried about your mind set if you felt like wading into odds of 4/7 about BARDD, given that seven assignments have slipped by since Nicky Henderson’s Dylan Thomas gelding secured his one and only victory to date on his second start. I fully appreciate that this opposition should be put in its place with the minimum of fuss but that said, only the Placepot scenario would lure to me include the projected hot-pot in my bets this afternoon. COCKER makes some appeal I guess with Mr Ferguson in the plate, though CHILLI ROMANCE should be the horse to test the resolve of the market leader at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Fakenham card.
2.20: Another ‘win only’ event on the Fakenham programme which makes the predicted Placepot dividend pretty much impossible to predict. Cynics will argue that if the short price horses win, the game is up for people who invest in permutations but the attitude I adopt is that there could be a mega return in the offing if such moderate horses are beaten. Upwards and onward by including THE LION DANCER (trainer Charlie Mann has a decent record here) alongside likelier winners, namely HOLBROOK PARK and RED HANRAHAN who are listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Both of the hot (1/3 & 8/13) favourites had been beaten in ‘win only’ contests before a 6/5 market leaders got punters out of jail in another win only event twelve months ago.
2.50: In opposing Saucysioux here, I am doing so in the genuine belief that either BROADWAY BELLE or DIZZEY HEIGHTS would accompany the favourite in the frame, even if the projected market leader was to win the race. In order to achieve a Placepot dream of securing a great dividend, a chance has to be taken here and there and I’m as confident as I can be that one of the two ‘selections’ will finish in the ‘short field’ frame, irrespective which other horse also secured a position in the first two. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Dizzey Heights (good)
3.20: In assessing the final leg of our favourite wager, we have to be positive in the thought that at least one of the hot favourites is going to finish out of the money whereby we should put ourselves in a position to ‘lay off’ from a Placepot perspective if the dividend is showing signs of paying really well. You can determine that prospect by looking at my (Malcolm Boyle) Twitter page this afternoon where I will offer updates after every race as well as listing the ‘Placepot betting’ for each contest. There is plenty of money in the positive queues on the exchanges this morning for course winner MERCIAN KING and MOVIE LEGEND and this pair will do for me against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: This is the second of the new races on the Fakenham programme.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Mercian King (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Fakenham card on Tuesday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and profits/losses accrued and then their five year figures:
3 runners—Zoe David (No runners this season) – 0/14
3—Olly Murphy (1/6 – loss of 3 points – same stats
2—Alan Blackmore (0/1) – 1/31 – loss of 25 points
2—Neil King (2/7 +21) – 10/25 +26
2—Phil Kirby (0/1) – 2/9 +13
2—Charlie Mann (1/4 – slight loss) – 4/16 +4
+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
29 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £22.20 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W: £339.90) – 7 favouries – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced