BRIGHTON – AUGUST 22
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Taajub), 5 (Quantum Dot) & 4 (Secret Strategy)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Al Ozzdi), 3 (King Of The Sand) & 5 (Tiny Tempest)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Gunner Moyne), 6 (Riana Star) & 3 (Nouvelle Ere)
Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Kings City) & 4 (Prosecution)
Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Buxted Dream) & 3 (Zamjar)
Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Kalani Rose), 10 (The Bear Can Fly) & 3 (I’m A Believer)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Course winner Sandfrankskipsgo ran well enough at Windsor last night but all four of his turf wins have been gained under faster conditions than the eight-year-old faces here. If connections decide to withdraw Pete Crate’s raider, a difficult ‘win only’ scenario will evolve whereby trying to evaluate this event at this time of the morning is difficult to do. Stable companion TAAJUB is the only entry which I would definitely include either way, whilst QUANTUM DOT and SECRET STRATEGY make up my trio against the other pair, given that the turf record of Monumental Man stands at 3/34.
Favourite factor: This is a new meeting on the fixture list where no ‘help’ is available.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/4—Sandfrankskipsgo (good to firm)
1/3—Secret Strategy (good)
2.30: It is interesting that KING OF THE SAND is generally considered as the outsider of the party, given that Gary Moore’s newcomer is a brother of a juvenile winner. There is also the fact that Gary boasts a level stake profit of 94 points from his two-year-olds this season, via a 2/11 ratio. In a race that will not take a great deal of winning in all probability, I will include Gary‘s Footstepsinthesand colt alongside AL OZZDI and TINY TEMPEST. Simon Crisford boasts a 20% strike rate this month via six winners, stats which have produced 70 points of profit, not that his representative (course winner) AL OZZDI will add much to that tally if successful here. This is another race with just five runners having been declared whereby you should keep your eyes peeled in case the contest dissolves down to a ‘win only’ event.
Record of course winner in the second race:
1/1—Al Ozzdi (good to firm)
3.00: Any which way I look at this card, a fine Placepot dividend looks to be in the making, which is the main reason I selected today’s venue. Having gained plenty of Placepot success of late, it’s worth speculating on this card in the hope that favourites finish out of the frame along the way, a scenario which could provide great rewards. Twelve of Gary Moore’s last 27 runners on the flat have finished ‘in the three’ and in a race which provides so few clues, Gary’s pair might be as good as any to get us through to the next leg of our favourite wager, namely RIANA STAR and GUNNER MOYNE. You can certainly ignore the 10/1 quote in the trade press about the latter named raider who could even start shorter than his stable companion at around the 5/1 mark. NOUVELLE ERE is three pounds better off with Overhaugh Street having been beaten less than two lengths by that rival on his penultimate start. At the prices on offer, William Carson’s mount makes more appeal in another ‘short field’ contest on the card. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of course winner in the third contest on the card:
1/1—Overhaugh Street (good to firm)
3.30: It’s worth remembering that it is not necessary to look for favourites to finish out of the frame in every race to create a great Placepot dividend. Plenty of £1k dividends down the years have been produced with two of three favourites having finished in the money. This time last year as an example, a Leicester dividend paid £2012.10 with market leaders having won three of the six Placepot races on the card! I mention this because I’m finding it difficult to look for speculative options in this race, whereas from a Placepot perspective at least, PROSECUTION and KINGS CITY jump of the page in this grade/company. Luca Cumani (KINGS CITY) used to rule this particular roost many years ago, when all of his runners had to be backed at this switchback venue. There are signs that Luca has remembered where he used to torment the layers, with two of this three runners having won at the tack this season. If you insist on looking for a horse to consider with less Placepot units to its name, Pacofilha would be the call.
4.00: BUXTED DREAM is the other Cumani representative at the meeting and this son of Dream Ahead should score having escaped a penalty for a recent success. Pat Cosgrave’s mount makes his handicap debut here with a live chance, connections possibly having most to fear from ZAMJAR on this occasion. Coral must have taken something of an overnight hit on the Ed Dunlop raider as their 10/3 quote about the Exceed And Excel raider indicates. ZAMJAR is still available at 5/1 in a few places at the time of writing. On the other hand, Coral might just think that running here off a one pound lower mark than when successful at Chester earlier in the season, ZAMJAR is worth keeping ‘onside’.
Record of course winners in the fifth card:
1/5—Bahamian Surprise (good)
3/13—Black Caesar (2 x good to soft & good)
4.30: I would like to know how many times Joe Fanning has travelled down to ride at Brighton in the past with no Mark Johnston runners on the card! That is today’s scenario and though many punters will latch onto his ride aboard Al Ozzdi in the second race, interesting overnight money has developed for his mount KALANI ROSE in tis Placepot finale. Keep an eye on the markets this morning if you can because sustained support for Ben De Haan’s raider could be worth following. THE BEAR CAN FLY is less exposed than most and only finished behind an odds on chance at Lingfield (turf) on her second start. Ladbrokes are taking no chances with Mick Channon’s newcomer I’M A BELIEVER here at 9/2 (13/2 still available with three other leading firms) and it could certainly be argued that the trainer has found a decent opportunity for his Sixties Icon filly at the first time of asking. I’m A Believer immediately takes people of my age back to the golden era of music and yes, even The Monkees had to be included in that statement. Why the comment? Davy Jones (lead singer) dropped out of secondary school to become….an apprentice jockey. If you think life is hard on you at times, think of Davy who died of a heart attack at 66 years of age without an ounce of fat on his body. Indeed, he ran several miles a day and as the doctor who pronounced him dead said at the time, “this is one person I never expected to die this way”. Finishing on a brighter note, I also dropped out of secondary school (at 13) but have never had enough courage to even sit on a horse, let alone ride one. I have the greatest respect for jockeys who risk life and limb every day having only reached that position by working hard to get to a position when yes, they can earn lots of money. How many youngsters are prepared to work that hard these days? I have always been governed by the rule that you only get out of life what you are prepared to put in. I don’t think there has ever been a jockey who has ridden their first winner without having to work damn hard for the opportunity.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Gary Moore (6/26 - +34)
3—Philip Hide (5/19 - +8)
2—Michael Attwater (1/15 – loss of 7 points
2—Tony Carroll (1/30 – loss of 26 points)
2—Mick Channon (2/22 – loss of 12 points)
2—Paul Cole (3/7 - +2)
2—Peter Crate (1/8 – loss of 3 points)
2—Luca Cumani (2/3 - +5)
2—John Gallagher (2/12 - +1)
2—Ed de Giles (1/5 - +10)
2—Ben de Haan (2/15 - +4)
2—John Ryan (1/6 - +6)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
47 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newton Abbot: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar
Yarmouth: £38.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Kempton: £5.70 – 6 favourites – w winners & 2 placed