LEICESTER – JANUARY 23
Latest corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £217.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Don Des Fosses) & 5 (Secret Legacy)
Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Optimus Prime) & 2 (Rayvin Black)
Leg 3 (2.05): 2 (Arian), 3 (Kaloci) & 1 (Spice Girl)
Leg 4 (2.40): 2 (Lastbutnotleast), 1 (Antartica De Thaix) & 3 (Got Away)
Leg 5 (3.15): 2 (Shockingtimes), 4 (Mr Love) & 3 (San Pietro)
Leg 6 (3.50): 3 (Catchin Time), 5 (Delface) & 2 (Crafty Roberto)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four events when represented, with DON DES FOSSES the clear pick of the trio of relevant entries this time around. Warren Greatrex has his team in particularly good order (stats of 7/16 of late) and this dual (bumper/point) winner meets these rivals on level terms which is something to behold. The ground might offer more problems that the opposition on this occasion. SECRET LEGACY is slightly preferred to Rosmuc Relay for the forecast call.
Favourite factor: The eight contests thus far have produced a top priced scorer of 9/1, though just two market leaders have prevailed. Five of the eight favourites have claimed Placepot positions.
1.30: Four are set to face the starter but only two runners can be fancied via the form book, namely OPTIMUS PRIME and RAYVIN BLACK. It’s the turn of the Dan Skelton trained OPTIMUS PRIME to be at the peak of his form just now, though we would not have to go too far back in time to find a level which RAYVIN BLACK ran to in order for the ‘race’ to become competitive when the whips are raised. Both horses have handled these conditions well enough in the past to suggest that a ‘freak result’ is most unlikely, especially given the favourite stats below.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have won their respective events at 1/20, 1/2, 4/6 & 8/11, though the other 11/10 market leader finished last of four in a 'win only' contest.
2.05: Six-year-olds have won five of the six renewals thus far, with vintage representatives on offer at 4/6 before the form book is consulted. My preferred pair are ARIAN and KALOCI, with the 3/1 trade press quote about the first named John Flint raider looking a tad fanciful at the time of writing. SPICE GIRL is the obvious danger to the vintage trend being improved upon, especially as Richard Johnson’s mount took in a much warmer event at Cheltenham the last day. The worry however is that her four previous victories were all gained on much better ground than she will encounter today.
Favourite factor: The six favourites have secured two gold and two silver medals alongside toteplacepot positions, with search parties still out looking for the other (8/15 & 4/6) market leaders.
2.40: It would be churlish in the extreme to leave any of these three runners out of the Placepot mix, especially with the ‘outsider of three’ being unexposed to date, hailing from Oliver Sherwood’s yard which can bring horses along quickly at the ‘early stages’ of their respective careers. That said, GOT AWAY is expected to give best to LASTBUTNOTLEAST and ANTARTICA DE THAIX this time around, but not with enough confidence to leave Oliver’s raider entirely out of the equation.
Favourite factor: Detectives are still out looking for last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite.
3.15: All six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 to date, stats which eliminate the bottom two horses in the handicap, including the projected favourite and course winner Dontminddboys. Two of the three victories gained by SHIOCKINGTIMES have been on soft ground, albeit the ‘refusal’ at Wincanton the last day is something of a negative. That said, Jamie Snowden has his team in wonderful order (four of the last six have won) whereby Brendan Powell’s mount has to enter calculations. Others for the permutation are MR LOVE and SAN PIETRO who represent the Lucy Wadham and Donald McCain yards which are also in form at this moment in time.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include one winner.
Course winner in the fifth race:
3.50: CATCHIN TIME is the each way call on the entire card from my viewpoint given the 8/1 quote which is freely available at the time of writing. The only course winner in the field, Laura Hurley’s ten-year-old boasts a 4/10 record on heavy ground, conditions which should be in evidence all around the track by the time this race is contested this afternoon. Five of his 13 wins have been recorded in January/February for good measure, whilst today’s rivals are not world-beaters in any shape or form, the pick of which might prove to be DELFACE and CRAFTY ROBERTO.
Favourite factor: Two of the three 4/1 co favourites snared Placepot positions in the inaugural contest two months ago, stats which included the winner of the contest. Last year’s 7/2 market leader finished fourth, missing out on a Placepot position.
Course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Catchin Time (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
3 runners—Zoe Davison (0/4) – 2/13 +13
3—Robin Dickin (2/4 +17) – 5/23 +10
3—Stuart Edmunds (1/2 – level profit/less on the year) – 1/8 – loss of 6 points
3—John Flint (First runners at Leicester this season) – 1/6 +1
2—Sarah-Jayne Davies (0/1) – 0/16
2—Alex Hales (1/4 – marginal loss) – 2/13 – loss of 4
2—Donald McCain (1/2 +1) – 3/20 – loss of 6
2—Henry Oliver (0/6) – 4/32 – loss of 17
2—Oliver Sherwood (0/3) – 2/15 – loss of 11
2—Aytach Sadik (0/2) – 0/4
2—Lucy Wadham (0/3) – 1/15 – loss of 9
2—Ian Williams (0/1) – 6/18 – marginal loss
+ 16 trainers with just one declaration on the card
44 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Wetherby: £72.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell: £55.90 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced