BRIGHTON – APRIL 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £56.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 32.5% units went through – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)
Race 2: 67.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 9/4* - 10/3
Race 3: 47.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* & 9/2
Race 4: 43.7% of the remaining units went through –8/1 – 13/2 – 3/1 (5/2)
Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 6/1 – 13/8*
Race 6: 34.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* & 20/1
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (4.15): 4 (Baltic Prince) & 3 (Tigerwolf)
Leg 2 (4.50): 3 (It’s the Only Way), 6 (Al Manhalah) & 7 (Knockabout Queen)
Leg 3 (5.25): 7 (Andalusite), 3 (Art Echo) & 5 (Madrinho)
Leg 4 (5.55): 6 (Prince Jai), 3 (Violet’s Lads) & 10 (Joyful Dream)
Leg 5 (6.30): 7 (Becca Campbell), 8 (Let’s Be Happy) & 6 (Poetic Force)
Leg 6 (7.05): 10 (The Secret’s Out) & 2 (Hint Of Grey)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
4.15: BALTIC PRINCE is the each way call in the contest from my viewpoint, even though TIGERWOLF has a favourite’s chance in a race which should not prove difficult to win. Trainer Tony Carroll (BALTIC PRINCE) is on a great run just now, boasting a 40% strike rate via six recent winners, gold medallists which have produce 34 points of level stake profits during the period.
Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders secured Placepot positions (one winner) via three renewals.
Record of the four course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Ocean Temptress (good to soft)
1/8—Swiss Cross (good to firm)
1/3—Baltic Prince (good)
4/25—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)
4.50: KNOCKABOUT QUEEN was as green as grass at the first time of asking and can only do better for in form Mick Channon, albeit I was expecting the Sixties Icon filly to be targeted at a more conventional track than Brighton where the gradients can catch seasoned thoroughbreds out on occasions. That taken into account, I will hold back from a win perspective, whilst adding IT’S THE ONLY WAY and AL MANHALAH into my Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.
5.25: Not the easiest ‘short field’ event to assess, with course and distance winners ART ECHO and ANDALUSITE being the first to horses short listed. John Gallagher saddles the latter named raider with the trainer boasting 24 winners at the track in eighteen year of having held a license. John’s next best haul is ten (Goodwood) whereby you can detect that this must be his favourite venue. ART ECHO won on soft ground when successful here, which probably means that I will add MADRINHO into the Placepot mix. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year when the 7/2 market leader snared a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.
Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card.
1/1—Sayesse (good to firm)
4/16—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)
1/2—Art Echo (soft)
3/7—Andalusite (2 x good to firm & good)
5.55: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 10-6 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (21 up for grabs) gained via seven renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared six of the seven contests to date. I’m taking a trio of vintage representatives to get us through to the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, namely PRINCE JAI, VIOLETS LADS and JOYFUL DREAM.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/1, 7/2 & 11/4) winners.
Record of the six course winners in the field:
1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)
1/4—Hidden Stash (good)
2/7—Indus Valley (good & good to firm)
3/13—Live Dangrously (2 x good to soft & good)
3/26—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)
1/9—Ettie Hart (good to form)
6.30: I’m struggling to put lines though the names of the two course winners here, despite both runners on offer at double figure prices at the time of writing. BECCA CAMPBELL (Eve Johnson Houghton) and LET’S BE HAPPY (Ali Stronge) look sure to give supporters a decent run for their collective monies, nominating POETIC FORCE as the potential joker in the pack as far as our outsiders are concerned.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader finished out with the washing.
Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:
3/7—Becca Campbell (3 x good)
1/3—Let’s Be Happy (good to firm)
7.05: I have only left myself two options for the competitive looking Placepot finale but that said, the likes of THE SECRET’S OUT (should revert to consistent form now that he has had his pipe opener for the campaign) and HINT OF GREY (strong local contender for Gary Moore) can do the Placepot business for us in the lucky last.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Brighton card.
Record of the three course winners in the line up:
1/2—Hint Of Grey (good)
2/15—Solveig’s Song (good to form & good to soft)
2/10—With Approval (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.