EXETER - OCTOBER 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £89.00 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.20): 7 (Jaunty Inflight), 8 (Theatre Stage) & 12 (Lady Longshot)
Leg 2 (2.50): 8 (Kapcorse) & 11 (Lord Duveen)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Vieux Bleu), 8 (Zephyros Bleu), 4 (Duelling Banjos) & 2 (Alvarado)
Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Midnight Glory), 2 (Midnight Request) & 8 (Braw Angus)
Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Market Road) & 10 (Not At All)
Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Yanworth) & 5 (Sternrubin)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Miss P Fuller may not be a name we are familiar with immediately, though it’s worth reporting that she has ridden 21 winners under rules whereby my immediate negative look at the booking aboard JAUNTY INFLIGHT has changed. Having ridden six winners for the underrated trainer Chris Down via a 21% strike rate, it’s also worth noting the partnership has produced 23 points of level stake profit into the bargain. Evan Williams (THEATRE STAGE) saddles his first runner of the season at Exeter and I was a little surprised to find that Evan does not raid this venue as often as you might think. Evan averages just eight runners a season of late, though those figures include eight winners (20% strike rate) which have produced black figures (+3) as far as level stake investment are concerned. In terms of value for money, LADY LONGSHOT is preferred to Get Ready Freddy in making up my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite duly obliged.
2.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals (including eight of the last fifteen), and with KAPCORSE (Paul Nicholls) and LORD DUVEEN (Philip Hobbs) hailing from their ranks on this occasion, the trend looks set to be extended. I understand the reason behind siding with Lalor by the trade press correspondent but the comment about Nicholls/Hobbs usually winning this event is underplayed in the extreme, with the said trainers having won eight renewals between them during the last decade. Indeed, Philip Hobbs has secured three of the last four contests and five in total during the last ten years! I have no problem with people selecting another horse that I am ‘swerving’ but ‘scant reporting’ relating to major facts is not offering readers a decent insight into relevant races, win, lose or draw. However, I do appreciate the potential of Lalor (and Onefortheroadtom) which makes this year’s renewal a potentially exciting race to witness. I would be erring myself if I did not draw your attention to the great record of market leaders in the race listed below.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 14 of the last 19 renewals, whilst second favourites have ensured that bookmakers have endured a torrid time by snaring four of the other five contests!
3.20: Don’t be at all surprised if old ALVARADO runs a reasonable race here at the first time of asking this season, especially as there have been bits and pieces of money for him on the exchanges overnight. I have joined in the fun at 20/1 at the time of writing, albeit to extremely moderate (each way) stakes. I can’t believe that the current exchange prices of 12/1 & 10/1 with the main two companies will be maintained though that said, four bookmakers have shortened up the price to 14/1. VIEUX LILLE, ZEPHYROS BLEU and DUELLING BANGOS are (arguably) more obvious winners in the line up.
Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the three (4/1-11/4-9/4) favourites thus far.
Records of course winners in the third race on the card:
3/4—Vieux Lille (2 x heavy & good)
3/10—Umberto D’Olivate (2 x soft & good)
1/6—Bindon Mill (soft)
1/2—Bears Rails (good to sodft)
3.50: It might prove to be churlish in the extreme to ignore the positive market moves for MIDNIGHT GLORY which seem to be gaining momentum as I write this column. You can certainly forget about the 7/1 quote in the trade press as 4/1 is solid right across the board at the time of writing. The other ‘midnight’ raider MIDNIGHT REQUEST boasts each way/Placepot claims from my viewpoint, possibly alongside BRAW ANGUS.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 favourite finished out of the frame (exact science) in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the terms short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/5—Midnight Request (good to soft)
1/7—Shoofly Milly (soft)
4.20: Three horses appear to stand out from the crowd, with overnight support coming for EDDY and MARKET ROAD, with preference offered to the latter named Even Williams representative. This is especially the case as soft ground would seemingly be against Eddy. I will opt for NOT AT ALL accordingly to add to Evan’s representative in terms of the Placepot permutation, though nothing could be further from my thoughts in having a bet in this contest from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
4.50: Plenty of potential investors will be pleased that YANWORTH makes his chasing debut here before the ’10 to follow’ competition starts this winter. So many people would have otherwise included Alan King’s raider in the hope that he took to fences whereas now, they should have a clearer perspective following this event. Only STERNRUBIN can have any chance against the favourite and even then, at least two serious blunders might have to ensue to give the Philip Hobbs entry any chance, particularly under these projected soft conditions.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, albeit just two renewals have been contested. One Placepot position has been snared thus far.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:
5 runners—Colin Tizzard (1/4 – loss of 1 point)
4—Philip Hobbs (1/3 +4)
4—Jonjo O’Neill (No previous runners this season)
4—Jeremy Scott (0/1)
4—Evan Williams (No previous runners)
3—Pail Henderson (No previous runners)
3—Alan King (0/2)
3—David Pipe (1/4 +7)
2—Kim Bailey (0/2)
2—Ron Barr (0/1)
2—Vic Dartnall (0/2)
2—Chris Down (1/23 +19)
2—Johnny Farrelly (No previous runners)
2—John Flint (0/1)
2—Jimmy Frost (0/1)
2—Harry Fry (1/2—slight loss)
2—Sue Gardner (3/7 +14)
2—Tom George (0/1)
2—Nick Gifford (No previous runners)
2—Grace Harris (0/3)
2—Tom Lacey (1/1 +2)
2—Seamus Mullins (0/1)
2—Fergal O’Brien (No previous runners)
2—Dan Skelton (0/2)
2—Tim Vaughan (0/3)
2—Richard Woollacott (0/1)
+ 23 trainers with just one runner at the meeting
89 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Yarmouth: £ £211.00 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton: £33.11 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle: £194.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced