KEMPTON - DECEMBER 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £742.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Boxing Day Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (12.45): 2 (Diese Des Bieffes) & 1 (If The Cap Fits)
Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Reigning Supreme), 5 (Wenterreadyfreddie) & 8 (Mister Whitaker)
Leg 3 (1.55): 7 (Mia’s Storm), 1 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (Fountains Windfall)
Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 5 (The New One)
Leg 5 (3.05): 1 (Bristol De Mai), 4 (Might Bite) & 3 (Fox Norton)
Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Take To Heart), 2 (Dashing Oscar), 3 (Connetable) & 5 (Jaleo)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
Please note the additional service below relating to stats which are available for every represented trainer at Kempton on Boxing Day.
12.45: On a general front, it's worth noting that 48% of the Kempton entries on Boxing Day hail from just five stables, whilst 65% are covered by just eight handlers. Four and five-year-olds have secured 17 of the last 19 renewals of this opening contest. Nicky Henderson has secured five renewals during the study period having held two entries at the weekend. That said, DIESE DES BIEFFES was always the likely declaration and his is the first name on the team sheet, marginally ahead of Harry Fry’s Milan gelding IF THE CAP FITS who boasts a 4/5 record this far. Harry Whittington boasts a fine record here at Kempton and readers should not dispel the chance of Simply The Betts too quickly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged via the last 18 renewals, and aside from a 20/1 winner in 1999, the biggest priced gold medallist during the period was returned at 12/1 (four years ago). 14 of the last 19 market leaders have finished in the frame though that does not include last year’s (1/2) favourite which finished fourth.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1--Irish Prophecy (good to soft)
1.20: Six and seven-year-olds have won ten of the last thirteen renewals between them whilst 11 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more. Nicky Henderson has won five of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding ‘four cards’ at the penultimate entry stage. Nicky has offered the green light to REIGNING SUPREME and WENYERREADYFREDDIE and I consider it extremely doubtful that both horses will finish out of the money, though this is race for watching rather than to become involved from a win perspective from my viewpoint. If Nicky is to be denied another success, the likeliest party-pooper appears to be MISTER WHITAKER, albeit Mick Channon’s only projected runner until next Saturday hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the weights.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have snared gold via 16 renewals to date, though just five of the other fourteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.
1.55: This is the race which set up last year’s good Placepot dividend, with the first four horses in the betting finishing out of the frame at 3/1, 10/3 & 11/2 (twice). Six-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals of this event and with BLACK CORTON representing the vintage this time around (alongside SOME INVITATION), the trend could well be extended. Black Corton continues to defy his ‘doubters’, though there is no denying that this is his biggest test to date. Some Invitation lacks a little experience over fences in comparison to others, whereby I’m opting (rightly or wrongly) for MIA’S STORM, BALLYOPTIC and FOUNTAINS WINDFALL just ahead of the six-year-olds this time around in a fascinating event. When you are working this far in advance of a race like this, it is as well to have contenders who will act on the relevant ground when the flag falls, which I have taken into account according. Foolishly perhaps, I think I have all eventualities covered!
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 20 market leaders have prevailed, whilst 12 favourites secured toteplacepot positions. 15 of the last 20 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less though that said, two of the last four gold medallists scored at 33/1 & 12/1.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/2--Black Corton (good)
2.30: Six-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals of this Christmas Hurdle and with BUVEUR D’AIR having been declared, the ratio looks likely to be improved upon on Tuesday. This track is too quick for THE NEW ONE as I have documented before and I hope the favourite puts Nigel’s brave warrior into his place in proper fashion here as I fully expect that The New One could go very close in the ‘Stayers’ sector at the Cheltenham Festival, possibly resulting in a Championship victory at Prestbury Park in March which he so richly deserves. I’m afraid that will not happen if Nigel enters him in the Champion Hurdle again for all that he would run a good race, pure and simple. The same comment applies here because the old warrior simply refuses to down tools, even when the odds are stacked against him. Back to the champion hurdler now, because his victory in the ‘Fighting Fifth’ at Newcastle showed that last year’s results where no flash in the pan and whatever ‘Ireland’ sends over in March, I expect Buveur D’Air to repel all challengers at this stage of the season.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen favourites have won, though the previous four market leaders were all beaten during the study period. 11 of the last 18 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Christmas Hurdle:
1/3--Old Guard (good)
3/6--The New One (2 x good to soft & good)
3.05: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals of the King George, even taking into account that the vintage was not represented two years ago. FOX NORTON was among just three relevant entries last week and although all three runners have stood their ground, only Colin Tizzard’s raider can be given a chance of lowering the colours of more fancied runners in the contest. I have to admit that I thought we had seen the best of BRISTOL DE MAIN in his novice days before his resurgence this term when he has simply blown his rivals away. It’s difficult to tell just how soft the ground will be writing this column over 50 hours in advance of the race but be assured, connections be welcoming every drop of rain between now and flag fall, especially on one of the quickest drying courses in the land. Providing that it is at least good to soft on all parts of the track, Nigel’s raider will give MIGHT BITE a real race and 4/1 at the time of writing looks too big from my viewpoint, despite the unknown ground factor. MIGHT BITE is a talented individual and no mistake and last year’s leading novice made short work of the opposition when landing a Listed event at Sandown on his reappearance. It would going over the top to suggest that THISTLECRACK was the forgotten horse in the contest but he has questions to answer now and from that perspective, his odds fail to attract my attention.
Favourite factor: Although 11 favourites have won the King George during the last 19 years, seven of the other 11 market leaders failed to finish in the frame. Only Jair Du Cochet (pulled up in 2003 behind the much underrated Edredon Bleu), Kauto Star (2010) and Long Run (2011) had failed to snare gold via the ‘jollies perspective’ in the previous 11 years, before joint beaten favourites Cue Card & Dynaste both let the side down in 2013.
Course winners in the 'King George':
1/2--Double Shuffle (good)
1/2--Might Bite (good)
3/4--Tea For Two (2 x good to soft & soft)
3.40: Nine of the last eleven winners of the finale have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whilst Nicky Henderson (TAKE TO HEART – set to carry 11-4) has secured three of the last eleven contests. This appears to be the one race on the card that could give bookmakers some breathing space, given that their ledgers (I'm showing my age) will be dominated by so few horses in the previous events on the card. That said, four-year-olds have won the last four contests though in the circumstances, can you believe that just one of the 26 penultimate stage entries was a four-year-old. It’s as though trainers want bookmakers to earn a great living, especially as the relevant vintage represented has not been declared for the gig! The weight trends suggest that it would be churlish to ignore the Placepot claims of DASHING OSCAR, and CONNETABLE alongside Take To Heart. If the weight trend goes ‘belly up’ this time around, I’m adding JALEO into the mix who would have run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap but for Alex Ferguson’s useful claim. I sincerely hope that you back lots of winners over the Christmas period and that you are enjoying the festivities thus far.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 13 favourites have won, whilst eight of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of course winners in the finale:
2/2--Our Kaempfer (2 x good to soft)
1/3--Mr Fickle (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
EVERY TRAINER LISTED with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Boxing Day – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:
7 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/18 – loss of 5 points) – 226/888 - +72
5—Gary Moore (0/12) – 28/393 – loss of 167
5—Colin Tizzard (1/3 +8) – 20/125 +48
4—Paul Nicholls (6/12 – loss of 1 point) – 11/6/515 – loss of 55
4—Dan Skelton (0/12) – 8/96 – loss of 69
3—Harry Fry (2/6 – Slight profit) – 12/61 – loss of 12
3—Alan King (1/10 – loss of 7) – 75/475 – loss of 82
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 +1) – 46/326 – loss of 51
2—Emma Lavelle (0/2) – 27/180 – loss of 29
2—Ben Pauling (1/3 +2) – 5/31 – loss of 12
1—Peter Bowen (1/2 +5) – 8/57 – loss of 16
1—Ben Case (0/1) – 1/33 – loss of 28
1—Mick Channon (First runner this season) – 7/36 +12
1—Tom George (1/4 – Slight profit) – 24/147 +18
1—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 5/98 – loss of 68
1—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 9/73 +25)
1—Anthony Honeyball (First runner this season) – 0/8
1—Charlie Longsdon (0/5) – 11/101 – loss of 16
1—Phil Middleton (1/1 +10) – 1/10 +1
1—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 5/116 – loss of 61
1—Jonjo O’Neill (1/8 – loss of 4 points) – 32/268 – loss of 125
1—Harry Whittington (1/4 +8) – 4/16 +11
1—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight loss) – 11/89 +3
1—Nick Williams (0/1) 0 7/44 – loss of 3
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £83.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 placed
Huntingdon: £73.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Market Rasen: £192.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Sedgefield: £66.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wincanton: £307.10 – 5 favourites (1 void) – 3 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £810.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wetherby: £3,021.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced