BEVERLEY - SEPTEMBER 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £22.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley:
Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Tarnhelm), 3 (Mr Greenlight) & 6 (Scenic River)
Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Mont Kinabalu), 5 (Salire) & 1 (Big Kitten)
Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Kirkham), 5 (The Stalking Moon) & 3 (Navarone)
Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Alpha Delphini) & 2 (Edward Lewis)
Leg 5 (4.25): 8 (Ravenhoe) & 6 (Mr Cool Cash)
Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Kohinur) & 2 (River Icon)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: The first two races on the card are novice events which are deemed as new races by the powers that be. In all honesty, these races are exactly the same as they were as last year in terms of grade and distance so for the last time, I am including the stats as they were up to and including last year. It is up to you whether you take them into account or disregard the figures. All eight winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones and it's difficult to envisage TARNHELM failing to land a blow at some stage of the contest. I would not back Mark Johnston’s Helmet filly from a win perspective though on the other hand, TARNHELM is certainly the first name on the team sheet as I prepare my permutation. I suggested that there would be worse outsiders on the card than what turned out to be the 10/1 winner of this event twelve months ago and though MR GREENLIGHT will not be offered at such a big price, each way investors could do worse than give Tim Easterby’s raider a squeak. Equally, stable companion SCENIC RIVER is also added into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include just the one (7/4) winner, if (repeating) you ignore the fact that this is a ‘new race’ according to the BHA.
2.45: Just a reminder that the same stance in taken in this race regarding its ‘new’ status. What money that has been invested at the time of writing has been for MONT KINABALU and (to a lesser degree) SALIRE. That said, Mark Johnston’s Kitten’s Joy newcomer BIG KITTEN would not have to possess a great deal of ability to become involved at the business end of the contest I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured four of the eight contests to date, with all eight market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions.
3.15: 14 of the last 16 winners of this event carried weights of 8-12 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the stats seriously, You can add ‘good to firm stats’ into the negative equation as well, as two of the runners here boast 10 course wins between them (see stats below), though every success has been registered under fast conditions which will not be in evidence today. Of the pair which have received support overnight as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol, I prefer the chance of KIRKHAM over Equiano Springs, again on account of the soft ground being projected. Others to consider include soft ground winners THE STALKING MOON and NAVARONE.
Record of course winners in the third event:
6/19—Talent Scout (6 x good to firm)
1/7—Line Of Reason (good)
4/31—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)
3.50: With four of the six runners officially rated in three figures, this appears to be a reasonably strong renewal, though it is disappointing to report that the race will be contested on slow ground obviously. ALPHA DELPHINI boasts obvious claims via the form book, though whether the ground will suit EDWARD LEWIS more remains to be seen. Last year’s runner up Ornate would also prefer fast ground.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won via 19 renewals to date, whilst 13 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/7—Line Of Reason (good)
1/1—Edward Lewis (good to firm)
2/3—Alpha Delphini (2 x good)
2/2—Ziggy Lee (2 x good to firm)
4.25: I feel compelled to start with the returning title holder RAVENHOE if only because the 18/1 quote this morning makes quite a lot of appeal on ground that will suit, albeit drying conditions (to a fashion) would be perfect for Mark Johnston’s raider. That said, similar going comment (relating to good to soft ground) also applies to MR COOL CASH who has been the subject of a lot of support in the dead of night. Richard Guest boasts a 31% strike rate here at Beverley this season and this pair from either end of the market will do for me against the remaining 13 contenders.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (3/1) winner.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
3/23—Make On Madam (2 x good + good to firm)
1/7—Chiswick Bey (good to firm)
2/5—Mr Cool Cash (good to firm & good to soft)
2/4—Ravenoe (good & good to soft)
1/2—Pioneering (good to firm)
3/5—Arcane Dancer (good to firm – good – good to soft)
4.55: RIVER ICON did not do a great deal wrong when changing codes at the first time on the level at Chester, though KOHINUR should take the beating under the terms and conditions of this maiden event for fillies.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is (genuinely) a new race on the Beverley programme.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Tim Easterby (7/69 – loss of 35 points)
6—Richard Fahey (15/87 – loss of 11 points)
4—Patrick Holmes (0/7)
3—Les Eyre (2/19 – loss of 3 points)
3—Richard Guest (4/13 +15)
3—Mark Johnston (9/56 (loss of 1 point)
3—Lawrence Mullaney (1/14 – loss of 8 points)
3—David O’Meara (7/70 – loss of 27 points)
2—Rebecca Bastiman (3/14 – slight loss)
2—Antony Brittain (2/24 – loss of 5 points)
2—Julie Camacho (1/9 – loss of 7 points)
2—Michael Chapman (0/1)
2—Ann Duffield (0/21)
2—Marjorie Fife (0/6)
2—Roger Fell (3/23 – loss of 10 points)
2—Ollie Greenall (0/2)
2—Micky Hammond (0/9)
2—Tina Jackson (2/9 +9)
2—Iain Jardine (0/4)
2—Paul Midgley (2/22 - +2)
2—John Quinn (4/27 – loss of 7 points)
2—Karen Tutty (4/23 - +20)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
84 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Warwick: £102.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £138.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced
Chelmsford: This appears to be a new meeting on the calendar