AYR – JANUARY 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £37.50 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr:
Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Blunder Buss), 7 (Arndean Lass) & 3 (Caventara)
Leg 2 (1.00): 1 (Niceandeasy), 9 (Rivabodiva) & 8 (Too Many Chiefs)
Leg 3 (1.35): 1 (Better Getalong)
Leg 4 (2.10): 1 (Un Noble), 7 (Achill Road Boy) & 8 (Lowanbehold)
Leg 5 (2.40): 6 (Plus Jamais), 2 (One For Harry) & 9 (Master Ruffit)
Leg 6 (3.10): 5 (Sky Full Of Stars), 2 (Las Tunas) & 1 (Titian Boy)
Suggested stake: 243 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.30: I would not back BLUNDER BUSS to actually win this event with your money though equally, it’s not possible to entirely reject the projected favourite with so few options in the contest. ARDEAN LASS is taken as the main threat ahead of CAVENTARA.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 11/8 favourite made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 14/5 market leader who was one of just two horses which failed to complete the course.
1.00: Although NICEANDEASY has plenty going for him here, three soft/heavy ground course winners take the projected market leader on, the pick of which should prove to be RIVABODIVA and TOO MANY CHIEFS. Keith Dalgleish was among the winners yesterday whereby NICE AND EASY is added into the mix alongside the two speculative options. The other course winner Hartforth looks too big at 33/1 in places though equally, this is a tough event to win on paper.
Favourite factor: Although four of the five favourites have reached the frame (exact science), we still await the first successful marker leader following four contests to date. The gold medallists have struck as 16/1, 12/1 5/1 & 9/2 thus far.
Course winners in the second race:
2/6—Hartforth (soft & heavy)
1/3—Too Many Chiefs (heavy)
1.35: I rarely opt for bankers on a card but in naming BETTER GETALONG as the only selection in this event, it is mainly because of so many soft/heavy ground course winners in the other contests which leads to my taking this stance. Whichever horses fill the relevant Placepot frames at Ayr today, thousands of units will be lost because of the proven going record of the individuals concerned. Despite superior form lines against them, plenty of outsiders will be named in permutations this afternoon in the hope that investors get lucky in opting for horses that have previously ‘done the business’ at Ayr in the past. It is impossible to oppose BETTER GETALONG in this grade/company but even then, if the Nicky Richards raider reaches the last flight in glorious isolation, I might just turn away for a second or two until the Gold Well gelding is safely on the approach to the jamstick.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ayr card.
Course winners in the third event:
2/2—Betta Getalong (soft & heavy)
2.10: The 14/1 trade press quote about heavy ground course winner UN NOBLE is catching the eye in the dead of night though that said, 11/1 is the best offer I have found at the time of writing. Either way, Nicky Richards could have another winner on the card at an each was price following the skinny odds on offer about Betta Getalong in the previous race on the card. This is one of the contests which will witness Placepot units going up in smoke at the same rate as fireworks bit the dust on Sunday night. ACHILL ROAD BOY and LOWANBEHOLD complete my speculative Placepot attack for race four on the card.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.
Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/4—Un Noble (heavy)
2/7—Calivigny (good to soft & soft)
5/18—Lochnell (3 x heavy – good to soft – soft)
1/4—Achill Road Boy (heavy)
1/12—Finaghy Ayr (heavy)
2.40: Dual heavy ground course winner MASTER RUFFIT has attracted money at massive odds almost right across the boards overnight and I feel duty bound to include the Irish raider, especially as selected Placepot units rarely follow suit in such relative numbers. PLUS JAMAIS and ONE FOR HARRY are more logical winners via the form book but on this ground, almost anything goes.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has claimed a Placepot position without winning the relevant contest to date.
Course winners in the fifth race:
4/21—Plus Jamais (2 x heavy & 2 x soft)
1/2—Rhymers Stone (soft)
1/4—Elusive Theatre (soft)
2/6—Master Ruffit (2 x heavy)
3.10: The Placepot finale is another trappy event on the second half of the Ayr programme to put it mildly, whereby three ‘selections’ are required to have any amount of confidence if we are still live going into the last leg of our favourite wager. SKY FULL OF STARS, LAS TUNAS and TITIAN BOY form my permutation. Here’s hoping the meeting receives the green light later this morning.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural even money favourite prevailed.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/9—Titian Boy (2 x soft)
1/4—Las Tunas (soft)
1/5—Sky Full Of Stars (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ayr card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal & five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
5 runners—Iain Jardine (0/2) – 112/102 – loss of 14 points
4—Nick Alexander (0/15) – 35/336 – loss of 98
4—Nicky Richards (2/12 – loss of 8 points) – 101/513 – loss of 101
3—Ian Duncan (1/13 – loss of 5 points) – 10/108 – loss of 12
3—Sandy Forster (First runners at Ayr this season) – 9/112 – loss of 22
3—Micky Hammond (0/1) – 33/244 +18
3—Lucinda Russell (5/21 +11) – 98/862 – loss of 246
3—R Mike Smith (1/14 – loss of 8 points) – 5/91 – loss of 35
3—Sandy Thomson (1/6 – loss of 2 points) – 9/59 – loss of 18
2—George Bewley (0/4) – 2/31 – loss of 23 points)
2—Stuart Coltherd (0/7) – 9/93 – loss of 21
2—Stuart Crawford (1/9 – loss of 5 points) – 20/158 – loss of 39
2—James Ewart (2/8 +7) – 20/183 – loss of 70
2—Chris Grant (1/2 +2) – 12/102 loss of 14
2—Patrick Griffin (First runners at Ayr this season) – 3/19 +4
2—Phil Kirby (1/8 +3) – 6/44 – loss of 11
2—Neil McKnight (0/1) – 2/8 +26
2—Ronan McNally (First runners at Ayr this season) – 1/10 – loss of 7 points
2—Rebecca Menzies (0/4) – 4/30 – loss of 2
2—Donald Whillans (0/2) – 14/123 +53
+ 9 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newcastle (A/W): £434.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced