NEWCASTLE (NH) – JANUARY 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £221.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle:
Leg 1 (1.20): 3 (Bob Mahler) & 4 (Cedeyrn)
Leg 2 (1.55): 1 (Petticoat Tails) & 6 (My Old Gold)
Leg 3 (2.30): 5 (Alto Des Mottes), 1 (Des Vou A Moi) & 2 (Kimberlite Candy)
Leg 4 (3.05): 1 (Skipthescales), 2 (Tailor Tom) & 5 (American Life)
Leg 5 (3.35): 2 (Casual Cavalier), 1 (Whitsundays) & 3 (Sharney Sike)
Leg 6 (4.05): 5 (Lord County) & 2 (Heartasia)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
*I hope a few of you latched onto yesterday’s winning dividend which offered a return of £1,062.40 to the full 10p permutation.
1.20:Warren Greatrex (2/7 at the track in the last five years) does not sent many runners to Gosforth Park but those at short odds often prevail, whereby the sold support of BOB MAHLER is probably the key element to this opening event. CADEYRN is standing up better than Donna’s Delight as the main danger if the overnight exchanges are to be believed.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 favourite was flanked in the frame by horses returned at 5/1 and 9/2 when securing a Placepot position via a silver medal effort.
1.55: The Warren Greatrex/Richard Johnson bandwagon rolls straight into the second and last race (as far as the combination is concerned) on the card and though PETTICOAT TAILS is nowhere near as strong on the exchanges in the dead of night, only MY OLD GOLD is taken seriously in terms of a threat to the Greatrex/Johnson double being secured.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newcastle card.
2.30: ALTO DES MOTTES (won this race last year under soft conditions) is preferred to Presented of the two ‘outsiders’ who are both being backed at each way prices which caught the eye at the first glance, especially given Alto Des Mottes 2/4 stats at the track on this type of ground. 9/1 is still available with Stan James at the time of writing which won’t last too much longer I’ll wager. The front pair in the market cannot be left out of the equation however, whereby DES VOU A MOI and KIMBERLITE CANDY are included in the Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: Both of the (7/4 and 11/10) favourites have failed to secure Placepot positions to date.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
2/3—De Vous A Moi (2 x heavy)
1/1—Kimberlite Candy (soft)
2/4—Alto Des Mottes (soft & heavy)
3.05: This race could create a decent Placepot dividend and no mistake, especially if the race loses its current ‘dead eight’ factor. A non runner would certainly throw a spanner in the works though talking positively, I’m opting for SKIPTHESCALES, TAILOR TOM and AMERICAN LIFE to get us through to the last two races relating to our favourite wager. The trio is listed in order of preference with Skipthescales offering some value in the dead of night.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Newcastle programme.
3.35: I doubt the trade press difference of 5/4 against 2/1 in favour of WHITSUNDAYS over CASUAL CAVALIER will be realised by the time that flag fall arrives, with my preferring the pair the other way around if truth be told, despite the fact that Donald McCain (WHITSUNDAYS) has his team in good order. I similarly doubt that three time course winner SHARNEY SIKE will be able to prevail again but that said, 12/1 is a big price about the twelve-year-old and with yesterday’s success under my belt, I’m including the old boy with the other pair in my permutation.
Favourite factor: Both of the (5/4 & 7/4) marker leaders have finished out with the washing thus far.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:
1/3—Casual Cavalier (soft)
3/7—Sharney Sike (2 x good & heavy)
4.05: Surprise Vendor is the ‘dark horse’ in the field if the front two in the market prove to be vulnerable in another ‘dead eight’ contest on the card. Non runner warning bells are flashing before my eyes as I pen the column but similarly, it’s very difficult to leave LORD COUNTY and HEARTASIA out of the Placepot equation. I have to be realistic by suggesting that the first two races on the card will probably limit the chance of the Placepot paying well enough to include Surprise Vendor in the permutation, though if you want to go for broke if yesterday’s winnings are burning holes in your pockets/wallet, craic on!
Favourite factor: All three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include both (9/4** and 10/11) winners of their respective events.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newcastle card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
4 runners—Donald McCain (1/2 +8) – 11/76 – loss of 12 points
4—Victor Thompson (0/2) – 0/19
3—Stuart Coltherd (0/1) – 4/46 – loss of 18)
3—Oliver Greenall (First runners at Newcastle this season) – 0/2)
2—James Ewart (1/4 – slight profit) – 3/43 – loss of 25
2—Sandy Forster (First runners at Newcastle this season) – 0/8
2—Warren Greatrex (First runners at Newcastle this season) – 2/7 – loss of 3
2—Lisa Harrison (0/1) – 0/14
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
43 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Lingfield: £11,547.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell: £106.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced