CHELMSFORD – JANUARY 4
Corresponding Placepot dividend in 2017:
£58.30 (8 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford:
Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Native Arrow) & 3 (Shakour)
Leg 2 (6.45): 8 (Wicker), 2 (Bold Prediction) & 3 (Gentlemen)
Leg 3 (7.15): 6 (Noble Behest) & 2 (Vettori Rules)
Leg 4 (7.45): 5 (Campas Scoobie), 3 (Udontdodou) & 2 (Robot Boy)
Leg 5 (8.15): 5 (Firmdecisions), 4 (Lucymai) & 8 (The Eagle’s Nest)
Leg 6 (8.45): 1 (Jorvik Prince) & 2 (Red Invader)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
6.15: NATIVE ARROW is the latest newcomer off the Charlie Appleby production Line and it’s worth noting that the trainer has secured a 31% strike rate since the end of June via 70 winners. His worst month during the period ‘boasted’ a 23% ratio, stats which most trainers would die for at any stage during their relevant careers, let alone month on month! The top yard declarations DANZAY (Mark Johnston) and SHAKOUR (John Gosden) make this a race to record with an eye to the future.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chelmsford, hoping that races earlier in the day have gone your way!
6.45: It is hardly surprising that some support has arrived for GENTLEMAN overnight given his record at the course though more solid money from an each way perspective is in place for WICKER and BOLD PREDICITION just the right side of the each way quotes. GENTLEMEN has been called various names in the past (and present) but not too many owners that I know would turn their back on a four time winner, especially when writing out their cheques to pay for training fees at this time of the year. Phil McEntee’s seven-year-old gelding races off an official mark in the ‘seventies’ for the first time in two years, a drop which gives him a Placepot opportunity for starters.
Favourite factor: One of the 7/2 joint favourites scraped into a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.
Record of course winners in the second race:
7.15: A change of stable (Marcus Tregoning to Robert Stephens) failed to stop NOBLE BEHEST in notching his four timer recently and there is no real knowing just how much more improvement lurks under the saddle. Ladbrokes are out on a limb at the time of writing by offering 5/1 about VETTORI RULES and Gay Kelleway’s raider is offered the alternative call over Lost The Moon from a value for money perspective. Start Seven represents Jamie Osborne who enjoyed a resurgence of winning form in December. Two of Jamie’s last five runners have finished second to suggest that the winter will produce more winners for the popular trainer.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (via two renewals) have finished in the frame (exact science) without winning their respective events.
Record of course winners in the third contest:
2/7—Lost The Moon
7.45: The course record of UDONTDODOU stands up to close inspection obviously and the only surprise overnight is that there has not been any real support for Richard Guest’s raider, especially with the trainer boasting positive level stake profits via his visits to this part of the country. There has been plenty of interest in CAPTAIN SCOOBY however and the five-year-old could emerge into something of a ‘plunge horse’ by the time that dawn breaks this morning. 15/2 was still available at the time of writing but I do not expect that quote to last too long when the offices opening for business. ROBOT BOY is difficult to catch right, though it’s hardly surprising that David Barron has decided to go to war with his eight-year-old Shamardal gelding given the form of his team with trainer having saddled four of his last seventeen runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
8.15: Dean Ivory saddled a winner on th corresponding card last year and I cannot help but note that there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue at double figures for his raider FIRMDECISIONS who has been backed almost right across the boards with conventional layers overnight. It’s worth noting that Robert Winston takes the ride for the first time in ten starts, Dean’s eight-year-old having been dropped ten pounds since that last association. Those of you who are taking the New Year by storm will have already noticed than on current form, stable companion LUCYMAI is the more obvious horse to back though either way, I’m quite content to let this pair represent yours truly as far as the Placepot is concerned this evening. THE EAGLE’S NEST is feared most.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 market leaders finished nearer last than first in attempting to follow up the previous winning favourite who has been sent off at the same price.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
1/1—The Eagle’s Nest
8.45: RED INVADER is the alternative each way option to JORVIK PRINCE for those of you wanting to take on the favourite in the final leg of our favourite wager. Their course stats below offer confidence in just going to war with the two ‘selections’ in the lucky last. Lisa Williamson has failed to saddle a winner via 33 runners since September which puts me off Mighty Zip who might otherwise have caught my attention via his 28% strike rate at the track. Captain Scoobie (mind your ‘Scoobies’ on the card) is nominated as the reserve nomination accordingly.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chelmsford card on Thursday – followed by their career stats at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Stuart Williams (35/223 +8 points)
3—Marco Botti (35/253 – loss of 36)
3—Dean Ivory (19/154 – loss of 29)
3—Derek Shaw (31/256 – loss of 22)
2—Michael Appleby (28/282 – loss of 112)
2—Brian Barr (1/21 – loss of 6)
2—David Barron (3/23 – loss of 11)
2—Tony Carroll (14/113 – loss of 23)
2—Rae Guest (6/55 – loss of 29)
2—Richard Guest (9/59 +28)
2—Gay Kelleway (6/91 – loss of 63)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
48 declared runners