LINGFIELD – DECEMBER 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £20.40 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Tuesday:
Leg 1 (1.00): 8 (Oriental Coach), 2 (Ar Mest) & 4 (Personal Coach)
Leg 2 (1.30): 6 (Rose Of Cimarron) & 9 (Glorvina)
Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (For Carmel) & 6 (Ben Arthur)
Leg 4 (2.30): 3 (Master Work), 2 (Sea Wall) & 5 (Clayton)
Leg 5 (3.00): 2 (Persian Snow), 5 (Cloudy Beach) & 6 (Allthegear No Idea)
Leg 6 (3.30): 3 (Yorgonnahearmeroar), 1 (Hadfield) & 8 (The Game Is A Foot)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: OREINTAL CROSS contested a reasonable Aintree event following a half decent effort on debut at Market Rasen and there is a chance that Tom Scudamore’s mount can make that experience pay here in a race which should not prove difficult to win. The Cape Cross filly might attract support I’ll wager whereby the 10/1 quote in the trade press might look fanciful by flag fall. The Ascot debut form of AR MEST obviously stands close inspection, whilst there was plenty of money in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night for PERSONAL COACH.
Favourite factor: The two (5/6 & 10/11) market leaders to date duly obliged.
1.30: Warren Greatrex is a dab hand at eeking out winning opportunities for those less gifted than others in his stable, a comment which applies to ROSE OF CIMARRON, despite her victory in a weak bumper event at Uttoxeter earlier in the year. High flying James Bowen is due another winner and his five pound claim will aid and abet the chance of GLORVINA, whose trainer Charlie Mann has won with two of the last three horses he has saddled.
Favourite factor: Both (7/4 and even money) favourites finished second thus far when securing Placepot positions.
2.00: Paul Henderson boasts a 21% strike rate over obstacles at this venue and the underrated trainer saddles FOR CARMEL here with a winning chance from my viewpoint. Whilst generally earning his keep at the ‘gaff tracks’ (of which Lingfield is one), it should not be forgotten that Paul has saddled three winners at Cheltenham whereby we should never underestimate his raiders. BEN ARTHUR has his ground today and with Kim Bailey boasting a 25% strike rate via his four winners of late, Tom Bellamy’s mount is definitely in my Placepot mix on his third start over the bigger obstacles. The reserve nomination is awarded to dual course winner Burgess Dream who might have made his way into my permutation had there been more juice in the ground.
Favourite factor: The third race is a new event on the Lingfield card
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/3—Point And Shoot (heavy)
2/5—Burgess Dream (2 x heavy)
2.30: Philip Hobbs saddles just his fourth runner at Lingfield since the old king died and though his previous three raiders here have been beaten in modern times, MASTER WORK is an unexposed type that should make the grade in this type of event. Course specialist SEA WALL demands respect obviously, whilst the declaration of CLAYTON adds interest in what on paper looks a difficult race to assess, despite the lack of contenders.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful (11/10) winner.
Record of the course winner in the field:
3/6—Sea Wall (3 x heavy)
3.00: PERSIAN SNOW is another Philip Hobbs runner on the card with definite claims, with Philip looking to re-establish himself at the venue. Philip has looked elsewhere for winners during the last five years but prior to that, the “Master trainer” bettered a 20% strike rate and there are clear signs that Philip wants to re-inact those days of old given his choice of declarations today. CLOUDY BEACH is not without a chance at around the 8/1 mark here, especially with a decent five pound claimer in the plate. That said, softer ground would have been ideal for the Venetia Williams representative, whilst course winner ALLTHEGEAR NO IDEA is another who has lost the winning habit but is well up to the grade on his best form. Don’t be too quick to write off the chance of Wings Of Smoke who has attracted overnight support at 16/1. It is not impossible to envisage the Tim Vaughan raider starting close to single figures by the time that flag fall is due.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader finished last of the six finishers in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—Allthegear No Idea (heavy)
3.30: Although some of his runners during the period could have been described as ‘no hopers’, David Pipe’s recent 1/17 strike rate deters me from including Delface in my permutation, with yours truly preferring the likes of YOUGONNAHEARMEROAR, HADFIELD and course winner THE GAME IS A FOOT on this occasion. There will be enough well fancied horses finishing out of the frame throughout the card to ensure a half decent Placepot dividend I'll wager.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite was back pedalling at a rate of knots before falling at the final obstacle before last year’s market prevailed at the same price.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—The Game Is A Foot (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday with their stats at the track this season – followed by their five year ratios + profits and losses accrued for both scenarios:
7 runners—Gary Moore (6/29 +4) – 9/75 – loss of 19 points
2—Brian Barr (First runners at Lingfield this season) – 1/5 – Slight profit
2—Chris Gordon (0/2) – 7/33 – loss of 5 points
2—Philip Hobbs (0/3) – No previous runners before this season
2—Seamus Mullins (0/4) - 4/36 – loss of 19 points
+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
48 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell (NH): £17.40 – 8 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar