CATTERICK - AUGUST 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £600.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick:
Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Amazing Rock) & 8 (Shrewd Approach)
Leg 2 (2.45): 9 (Lady Joanna Vassa), 8 (Your Gifted) & 7 (Sir Geoffrey)
Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Pumblechook), 3 (Tenzing Norgay) & 1 (Be Perfect)
Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Rose Eclair), 4 (Bay Station) & 2 (Lucky Lodge)
Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Tadaany), 1 (Mywayistheonlyway) & 8 (Tadaawol)
Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Bodacious Name) & 4 (Desktop)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: It comes as no surprise that Mark Johnston has waited until the seven furlong juvenile season has started before introducing his Rock Of Gibraltar colt AMAZING ROCK, who also had what looked to be a tougher assignment on his schedule at Haydock on Friday. Simon Crisford secured an 80/1 success at Windsor last night, though his experienced youngster SHREWD APPROACH might only be on offer at 2/1 if AMAZING ROCK does not impress paddock watchers this afternoon.
Favourite factor: I’m including the old (pre novice) stats here for the last time if you want to record such details. All 14 winners in recent times have been returned at odds of 5/1 or less, statistics which included seven successful market leaders. Six of the last eight favourites have obliged. Ten of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions though that said, the only favourites to miss out were returned at 4/11 & 4/5!
2.45: Eleven of the last thirteen gold medallists were burdened with 9-3 or less, stats which eliminates only two of the top five horses because of the claiming pilots involved, which keep three of the original top weights in the mix. The merits of ten runners are left to peruse, which is a difficult task, ‘the pin’ dropping on the likes of LADY JOANNA VASSA (four-year-olds have won the last three renewals), YOUR GIFTED and SIR GEOFFREY this time around.
Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven contests has gone the way of the favourite whilst five winners have been returned in double figures (ranging from 11/1 to 33/1) during the period. Six of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.
3.15: A respectful mention of the name of the late and much respected trainer Alan Swinbank who had saddled the winners of three of the last eleven winners of this event. The sport cannot afford to lose trainers of Alan’s stature in the game. Upwards and onward by informing that this is one the best races for favourites during Catterick’s entire year whereby the chances of PUMBLECHOOK and TENZING NORGAY are much respected as this pair are expected to head the market, for openers at least. Money for BE PERFECT would add interest to proceedings. More rain would have to fall for BULAS BELLE to score, though that scenario cannot be entirely ruled out given the weather this ‘summer’.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last eleven renewals whilst the other events were secured by horses sent off at 7/2 and 11/4, given that the 2015 (9/4) market leader was withdrawn before there was any time for a new market to be formed.
3.45: 11 of the last 13 winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which go against seven of the twelve entries, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be ROSE ÉCLAIR, BAY STATION and LUCKY LODGE. Rachel Richardson (rides Rose Éclair in this event - secured a 152/1 double yesterday) has been in fine form of late (as has trainer Tim Easterby) and there are not many better three pound claimers in the land right now. If the weight trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, MELANIEMILLIE might prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have secured seven of the last thirteen contests during the last fourteen years, the other winners being sent off at just 2/1-4/1-9/2-5/1-13/2-9/1. 12 of the 14 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, the odd one out being one of the two 5/2 joint favourites back in 2007 and last year’s 6/4 favourite which finished third in a ‘win only’ contest. The trade press have this down as a new race which does not concur with the BHA.
4.15: Ten of the twelve winners during the study period carried weights of 9-5 or more which brings in the likes of MYWAYISTHEONLYWAY and TADAANY. The 12/1 trade press quote about the latter named David O’Meara representative look fanciful in the extreme, with potential investors possibly having to look at half of that price before making a decision to back David’s Acclamation gelding. The other possibly winner in the field according to the gospel of your truly is TADAAWOL, though Roger Fell’s raider is fully five pound below the ‘superior’ weight according to recent trends.
Favourite factor: In contrast to the other races featured in Tuesday’s Placepot mix, favourites have a poor record as 12 renewals have been contested during the last 14 years during which time, successful market leaders were only conspicuous by their absence. That said, seven of the last eleven favourites have (at least) finished in the frame.
4.45: Regular readers will know that staying events on the flat are my least favourite races, purely because speed (the fundamental requirement of a thoroughbred) is only conspicuous by its absence in general terms. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that BODACIOUS NAME surely only needs to reproduce the form shown when winning last time out at Nottingham to reach the frame at the very least, whilst DESKTOP is nominated as the alternative each way call if the brief ’favourite factor’ stats below put the fear of Matt Chapman into you!
Favourite factor: This mixed vintage two mile contest was a new race on the Catterick card two years ago when the 2/1 favourite finished out of the money behind horses which filled the 'dead eight' frame at 12/1-7/2-7/2. Worse was to follow twelve months on when the contest was won by a 66/1 chance with detectives still searching the area for the 11/10 market leader (last of 12 – beaten 110 lengths).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Ruth Carr (7/22 – Profit of 15 points)
5—David O’Meara (3/17 – loss of 8 points)
3—Anthony Brittain (0/10)
3—Scott Dixon (1/14 – loss of 10 points)
3—Grant Tuer (0/1)
3—Tracey Waggott (0/6)
2—Eric Alston (1/4 – loss of 3 points)
2—Rebecca Bastiman (1/4 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Mick Easterby (2/14 – loss of 5 points)
2—Tim Easterby (2/20 – loss of 9 points)
2—Richard Guest (0/8)
2—Patrick Holmes (0/8)
2—John Holt (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Mark Johnston (6/18 – Profit of 10 points)
2—John Quinn (2/25 – loss of 19 points)
2—Kevin Ryan (4/12 – Profit of 6 points)
2—John Weymes (0/5)
2—Lisa Williamson (0/3)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Leicester: This is a new fixture on the calendar
Nottingham: £63.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Chelmsford: £348.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced