TAUNTON – JANUARY 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £35.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation Taunton:
Leg 1 (12.35): 3 (Kohuma), 1 (Overawed & 4 (Chilli Romance)
Leg 2 (1.05): 4 (Coup De Pinceau) & 1 (As I See It)
Leg 3 (1.35): 6 (King Of Realms) & 1 (Demon D’Aunou)
Leg 4 (2.10): 6 (Orbasa), 1 (Relentless Dreamer) & 5 (Sandy Beach)
Leg 5 (2.45): 7 (Padleyourowncanoe), 2 (Reejah) & 3 (Blairs Cove)
Leg 6 (3.20): 2 (Unioniste) & 3 (Bear’s Affair)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.35: A couple of in form trainers saddle horses here and with previous little else to work with, OVERAWED (Tom George – recent stats of 5/17) and KOHUMA (Robert Walford – 7/28) are the first names on the team sheet. Although a maiden after twelve assignments to date, the chance for CHILLI ROMANCE to secure another Placepot position is there for all to see.
Favourite factor: This is a new race at Taunton with which to open proceedings.
1.05: Pricing up races well before the off is invariably a difficult task, though the lads/lasses in the office of the trade press are (seemingly) well wide of the mark with the 5/4 call about AS I SEE IT. Harry Fry’s ‘Point’ winner is freely available at 9/4 with four firms at the time of writing and though I cannot eliminate the six-year-old from my Placepot enquiries, the quotes could not prize money out of my possession in the dead of night. On the flip side of the trade press betting forecast, I doubt there will be much of the projected 4/1 COUP DE PINCEAU available from what I can make of the quiet exchange dealings this morning.
Favourite factor: Although all three favourites have finished of the frame thus far, bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as the top priced winner to date was returned at just 5/1.
1.35: Trainer Ian Williams was enjoying a fine last quarter last year before he lost his highly progressive London Prize on an ill-fated day from which the yard has not fully recovered. Ian will hopefully bounce back here with KING OF REALMS who despite the number of horses involved, seemingly only has one or two to beat. DEMON D’AUNOU appears to be the pick of the opposition.
Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, albeit we had to wait until last year for the first (1/3) jolly to prevail from a win perspective. The previous three favourites were beaten at odds of 4/6, 8/11 and 1/2!
2.10: The Sandown effort of ORBASA the last day suggests that 10/1 might be a big enough price about the Paul Nicholls representative, albeit consistency would not feature on his curriculum vitae. Connections will be eyeing RELENTLESS DREAMER and SANDY BEACH as possible dangers, whilst EARTHMOVES is another potential each way play in the contest.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 6/4 favourite made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 11/4 market leader the previous season.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/1—Relentless Dreamer (good)
1/5—Sandy Beach (good to soft)
2.45: Thankfully we look set for a dry (if cloudy) day at Taunton, though it’s a shame that the overnight ground was not in better shape as REEJAH would have been really interesting given his 14/1 odds of offer at the time of writing. A winner of 6/12 races to date with Nigel Hawke’s yard in blistering form, I’m still going to add the outsider into the Placepot mix and hope for the best. More logical winners given the projected (soft) conditions include PADLEYOUROWNCANOE and FIDUX. There has been support for BLAIRS COVE overnight though like REEJAH, better ground would have made the money more interesting. All in all, this is a really interesting race to watch.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, stats which include one (5/2) winner.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
2/7—Here’s Herbie (good & good to soft)
3.20: This looks the right sort of (Hunter Chase) discipline for UNIONISTE given his advancing years. A really decent type when at the top of his game a few years back, David Maxwell should get a good tune out of the ten-year-old for the ‘local’ Paul Nicholls team. There are a few alternative options to consider though from a Placepot perspective, BEAR’S AFFAIR looks to be the value for money call. As a winner of 4/8 assignments at the venue, there will be worse 100/1 chances on the card than Milosam, though connections will probably just be happy to see him complete the course this time around, something that Milosam has only managed to do once via his last seven outings.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, whilst just one of three market leaders has secured a Placepot position to date.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Imperial Circus (good)
4/8—Milosam (3 x good + heavy)
1/3—Princely Player (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) & careers ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Colin Tizzard (3/14 +4) – 34/342 - loss of 131
5—Paul Nicholls (5/22 – loss of 12 points) – 213/818 – loss of 119
4—Harry Fry (0/3) – 23/83 – loss of 12
4—Nigel Hawke (1/4 – level on the season) – 11/237 – loss of 113
4—Nicky Martin (First runners this season) – 0/1
3—Sue Gardner (0/1) – 7/94 – loss of 45
3—Tom George (0/2) – 9/115 – loss of 41
3—Philip Hobbs (0/12) – 148/818 – loss of 80
2—Jack R Barber (0/2) -1/3 – loss of 1
2—Rebecca Curtis (0/5) – 5/35 – loss of 7
2—Mark Gillard (0/1) – 3/104 – loss of 83
2—Ron Hodges (0/1) – 63/738 – loss of 281
2—Martin Keighley (0/2) – 3/45 – loss of 23
2—Alan King (0/6) – 42/250 – loss of 54
2—Richard Mitford-Slade (1/1 +100) – 1/1 +100
2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5 +10) – 5/110 – loss of 69
2—Richard Price (0/1) – 4/70 – loss of 20
2—Jeremy Scott (1/3 +4) – 12/92 – loss of 20
2—Dan Skelton (0/8) – 10/51 – loss of 13
2—Sam Thomas (First runners this season) – 1/8 +59
2—Evan Williams (0/7) – 36/279 – loss of 40
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
88 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Southwell: £25.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced