NEWMARKET – APRIL 12
For the record, this is a new meeting (third day added to the fixture), albeit some races have been transferred to Tuesday from last year's cards.
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.10): 13 (Swiss Range), 12 (Queen's Code) & 1 (Aqualis)
Leg 2 (2.45): 8 (Vincent's Forever) & 6 (Tabarrak)
Leg 3 (3.20): 2 (Golden Amber), 8 (Free Code) & 4 (Grandad's World)
Leg 4 (3.55): 4 (Tathqeef) & 5 (Ventura Storm)
Leg 5 (4.30): 10 (Nathra) & 1 (Illuminate)
Leg 6 (5.00): 10 (Raven's Corner), 7 (Menai) & 3 (Castle Harbour)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.10: SWISS RANGE could prove to be the answer to the opening race of Newmarket's (Rowley Mile) season which stretches right through to 29th October, albeit the July venue shares the fixtures by staging meetings between June 17 & August 27 in 2016. Hailing from a good family, SWISS RANGE was giving experience away to the one horse to beat her on heavy ground at the back end of last year having attempted to make all in poor conditions on debut. Sure to have come on a ton that decent effort and with half of the fourteen making their respective debuts here, the experience is likely to prove valuable, especially if hours of heavy drizzle that we have endured here in the west-country on Monday travels its way across the country. Stable companion AQUALIS is likely to represent sire Sea The Stars to decent effect, whilst QUEEN'S CODE and DUFAY should also give their supporters a decent run for their collective monies.
Favourite factor: The first three races on the Newmarket are new events.
2.45: Hooded on his only start to date, VINCENT'S FOREVER eventually got the hang of things to score and representing such a powerful stable, we can only presume that this son of the Epsom Derby winner Pour Moi has done well over the winter period. It's a little surprising perhaps that he has not been stepped up in trip from his first effort though that said, John suggested that like his sire, Frankie Dettori's mount will not be the biggest horse in any race he contests, whereby perhaps he will become a miler, albeit he still has an entry in a certain 'Surrey event' on the first Saturday in June. Richard Hannon's pair TABAARAK and CHIEF WHIP are likely to become competitive at the business end of proceedings.
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) record of course winners in the second race:
3.20: Dean Ivory won with a third of his nine runners down the Rowley Mile last season and Dean's Holy Roman Emperor mare GOLDEN AMBER can go well, possibly having (softish) conditions in her favour by the time that flag fall arrives on Tuesday. These early season mixed vintage handicaps are something of a lottery, especially when three-year-olds are not involved. Connections of GOLDEN AMBER might have most to fear from a short listed trio of dangers, namely FREE CODE, LUCKY BEGGAR and GRANDAD'S WORLD.
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the third race on the card:
3.55 (Fielden Stakes): Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 9/2 and I expect the trend to be extended by the likes of TATHQEEF, VENTURA STORM and MUSTAJEER. I was 'all over' Golden Horn for this event last year when he won at 2/1 and the rest (as they say) is history. John has entered his Wolverhampton winner TATHQEEF who was as green as grass when winning by over two lengths on his one and only assignment thus far. Given a 'trial' of this nature, it should come as no surprise that John has his Tapit representative in the lists of both the 'Dante' and the Epsom Derby. Given that John has eight runners on the card, it is probably significant that the trainer has entrusted this event to his only entry TATHQEEF. It might prove foolish to read too much into the tenth place position gained by VENTURA STORM at Longchamp on 'Arc day' in October on good ground as Richard's Hannon's raider was 'only' beaten five lengths in that Group 1 Grand Criterium event. Ryan Moore's mount has put two decent back to back victories together, one of which was gained under soft conditions, the type of ground that the Zoffay representative had handled well on his debut here at 'Headquarters', albeit on the July course. Paul Hanagan (THATQWEEF) will know all about another dangerous rival in the unbeaten MUSTAJEER, having ridden the Owen Burrows raider on both of his victories last season.
Favourite factor: Ten of the nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the last sixteen years, statistics which include five winners. The last ten winners have scored at a top price of 8/1.
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the fourth event:
4.30 (Nell Gwyn Stakes): John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled two winners of this event during the last twelve years, albeit 'Team Hannon' have secured two of the last four contests. John saddles NATHRA this time around, whilst Richard has offered the green light to ILLUMINATE. The two horses are listed in order of preference, especially as Richard's filly has to give her thirteen rivals three pounds on this occasion. That said, she certainly cannot be written off by any stretch of the imagination having snared a hat trick via her first three starts, victories which included Group 2 and Group 3 events, before being beaten just half a length in the 'Cheveley Park'. She was not outclassed on her American sortie either whereby she remains a filly of great interest. NATHRA is anything but exposed by comparison however and I just feel that she has more scope for improvement that this stage of her career. Others to consider in the overnight melting pot include COOLMORE and Saeed Bin Suroor's dual course and distance winner FIRST VICTORY in a fascinating renewal.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won this (Nell Gwyn) trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the eighteen year study period
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the fifth contest:
1/1--Mix And Mingle
5.05 (Alex Scott Maiden): John Gosden has saddled two winners of this event during the last decade and is the only represented trainer to have won the race during those ten years. John has offered the green light to RAVEN'S CORNER and CASTLE HARBOUR, with both horses having been entered to run ijn the last few weeks, though the trainer has chosen to wait until this day before giving the Raven's Pass and Kyllachy newcomers (respectively) the green light. RAVEN'S CORNER still held an entry in Wednesday's 'Wood Ditton' event at the time of writing, one of four representatives from the Gosden yard for that were listed for that event last weekend. CASTLE HARBOUR (by comparison) has no 'double entries' this week, with Frankie Daettori's mount likely to be suited by good to soft conditions if the forecast rain arrives in time to make a difference to the ground, especially with Kyllachy's stock usually preferring some give underfoot. This seventh furlong is likely to play into the hands of the experienced Charlie Hills raider MENAI who was considered to be a possible Royal Ascot type this time last year. That said, he is a big strapping colt who might also require some rain to bring out the best in him, though his two efforts last season suggested there was a decent maiden on the radar, notwithstanding that the experience last season can only aid and abet his chance, though I guess that point also bring NOT TOUCH into the equation.
Favourite factor: Five of the seventeen favourites have won via the last fifteen renewals, whilst eleven market leaders finished in the frame. That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2. Eleven of the last fouteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with more than one runner on the Newmarket card on Tuesday:
3--Sir Michael Stoute
3--Saeed Bin Suroor
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
74 declared runners
2015 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) stats relating to trainers who have runners declared on Tuesday. Some of the ratios are surprising to say the least!
9/36--Daeed Bin Suroor
6/42--Sir Michael Stoute
1/1--Joseph G Murphy
0/1--Dominic Ffrench Davis
Trainers of runners on Tuesday who were not represented at the venue last season: