NEWMARKET – APRIL 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £236.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Mark Of Approval), 4 (Elyaasaat) & 6 (Night Curcus)
Leg 2 (2.20): 6 (Never Back Down), 8 (Sound Of Silence) & 2 (Contribute)
Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Via Egnatia) & 2 (Salsabeel)
Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Sacred Act), 7 (Next Stage) & 14 (Timeless Act)
Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Salouen) & 3 (Apex King)
Leg 6 (4.35): 3 (Jewel House), 9 (Top Mission) & 2 (Firefright)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: As the ‘Wood Ditton’ is invariably a total guessing game, I find myself already looking for excuses should the horses I highlight fail to light up the heath in any shape or form. I am trusting to John Gosden (as I did last year) to get us through this opening teaser of a contest, the trainer having offered the green light to MARK OF APPROVAL and DAMOCLES this time around. That said, it is literally impossible to ignore any horse that William Haggas saddles in 2017 (57% strike rate) as his 16/28 ratio confirms. William greeted last year’s winner for good measure whereby the chance of ELYAASAAT is highly respected. Charlie Appleby’s runners on the heath can rarely be dismissed and NIGHT CURCUS is (accordingly) added into the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: 14 of the 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (seven winners) during the 19 year study period.
2.20: Unless NEVER BACK DOWN drifts like the proverbial barge this morning, Hugo Palmer’s raider will not be sent off as a 6/1 chance as the trade press forecast implies. Indeed, it might be difficult to obtain half that price if the overnight momentum continues in the hours leading up to flag fall. SOUND AND SILENCE could be anything representing Charlie Appleby who boasts a 19% strike rate during the last five years at at Newmarket in the tough two-year-old sector. As far as a speculative call is concerned, CONTRIBUTE could be the answer.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via the last five renewals, three of which have been won by market leaders, statistics that include two odds on winners.
2.55: Although the overnight general comment about this being a ‘match’ event looks accurate despite there being six declarations, the world and his dog only seems to have eyes for VIA EGNATIA over SALSABEEL at the time of writing. The projected favourites have ‘flip flopped’ as far as the exchanges were projecting last night though either way, this pair appear to have the race by the scruff of the neck between them. Peter Chapple-Hyam has been known to throw the odd spanner in the works however whereby the chance of Time Zone is not totally ignored.
Favourite factor: Four of the last five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/1—Time Zone (good to firm)
1/1—Via Egnatia (good to firm)
3.30: There are worse outsiders on the card than MUTARAKEZ I’ll wager, though more logical winners include SACRED ACT, NEXT STAGE and TIMELESS ACT. The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though the contest will need more work to illuminate the form lines. VIA VIA brings recent winning form to the party which complicates matters. James Tate’s Newcastle winner is hiked up two notches however which tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.
Favourite factor: This Class 2 event is a new race on the Newmarket card.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/3—Highland Colori (good to firm)
1/2—Secret Art (good to soft)
1/2—Via Via (good to firm)
1/1—Lavetta (good to soft)
1/1—Timeless Art (good)
4.05: Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 and I expect the trend to be extended by the likes of SALOUEN and APEX KING. The firs named Sylvester Kirk raider was beaten just two lengths in the Racing Post Trophy last back end and with Ryan Moore taking the ride for the first time, another decent effort can surely be anticipated. That said, SALOUEN would not be the first three-year-old to ‘fall short’ the following season after a good juvenile term, though the booking of Moore looks highly significant from my viewpoint. Ryan is riding as well as ever as nine winners during the last fortnight testifies. APEX KING is preferred to MONTATAIRE, though a ‘soft lead’ for Mark Johnston’s raider might warrant a ‘saver’ in running though look smart, as nine furlongs will fly by under these fast conditions.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the twenty favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the last seventeen years, statistics which include six winners.
5.05: John Gosden has saddled three winners of this event during the last nine years and though JEWEL HOUSE ran an ordinary race at Doncaster the other week, this self-confessed anorak will adhere to his principles. That aside, TOP MISSION and FIREFRIGHT are the other potential winners in the field.
Favourite factor: Five of the eighteen favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals, whilst twelve market leaders finished in the frame. That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2. Twelve of the last fifteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track in 2016 + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—John Gosden (15/64 - loss of 1 point)
5—Charlie Hills (3/31 – loss of 19 points)
4—Andrew Balding (2/26 – loss of 13 points)
3—Charlie Appleby (7/38 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Richard Fahey (0/33)
3—Richard Hannon (6/66 – loss of 25 points)
2—Marco Botti (0/10)
2—Karl Burke (1/14 – loss of 5 points)
2—Ed Dunlop (3/30 – loss of 17 points)
2—William Knight (0/10)
2—Phil McBride (1/8 – loss of 4 points)
2—Gary Moore (0/4)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (5/40 – loss of 11 points)
2—James Tate (3/20 – loss of 5 points)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Exeter: £111.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton (NH): £256.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Ludlow: £561.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell (A/W): £147.20 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced