NEWMARKET – APRIL 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £12.70 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Reputation), 7 (Mont Kiara) & 8 (Gunmetal)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Seven Heavens), 7 (Majeste) & 4 (Rodaini)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Folkeswood), 1 (Abdon) & 2 (Autocratic)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Daban), 6 (Pamplemousse) & 9 (Sea Of Grace)
Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (On A Roll), 7 (Queen Of Kalahari) & 5 (Noble Manners)
Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Glittering Jewel) & 12 (Tranquil Star)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: We enjoyed a wonderful opening day to Newmarket’s (Rowley Mile) season with plenty of winners and 24 units of the Placepot secured. I followed those results by informing my Twitter readers that John Quinn has won with two of his first three runners at the track last season and sure enough, followers were on at 12/1 before El Astronaut prevailed. John saddles his only runner on today’s card in this opening event, namely REPUTATION who is (accordingly) listed as the first name on my team sheet. Connections might have most to fear from MONT KIARA and GUNMETAL.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite could only finish tenth in a twelve strong field.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
2.25: The European Free Handicap always brings to mind the excellence of Pat Eddery who won this race five times during the course of an eight year period for five different trainers between 1989 and 1996! Pat equalled Lester Piggott’s haul of eleven championship titles, having won this race eight times during his career. Upwards and onward to the present, reporting that the two least exposed horses in the field make most appeal for this renewal, namely SEVEN HEAVENS and MAJESTE. Simon Crisford has his team in good order (three of his last five inmates have won) whereby RODAINI is added into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst 12 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners. All 19 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.
3.00: Four-year-olds have claimed sixteen of the last twenty nine renewals, whilst securing half (24/48) of the latest available toteplacepot positions. FOLKESWOOD makes most appeal from the relevant six entries, though Sir Michael Stoute’s pair demand plenty of respect, namely ABDON and AUTOCRATIC.
Favourite factor: 15 of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) during the study period in the ‘Earl Of Sefton’ event.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/2—Berkshire (good to form & soft)
1/1—Folkeswood (goof to firm)
1/1—Spark Plug (good to firm)
1/3—Steel Of Madrid (good to firm)
3.35: John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled three winners of this event during the last thirteen years and John makes a habit of saddling consistent winners at this time of the season year on year (seven gold medallists back in 2014 alongside three winners two years ago at the two day Newbury meeting which starts of Friday – abandoned last year). With two winners already secured at the meeting, stable representative DABAN makes some appeal at 12/1, albeit it could be argued that Andre Fabre’s French raider PAMPLEMOUSSE is a likelier winner. Another option to consider is SEA OF GRACE.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won this (Nell Gwyn) trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the nineteen year study period
Record of course winners in the ‘Nell Gwyn’:
1/1—Brave Anna (good to firm)
1/1—Kilmah (good to firm)
1/1—Poet’s Vanity (good to firm)
4.10: 'Team Hannon' have secured three of the last seven renewals and the trainer has offered the green light to ON A ROLL, the outsider of the field at the time of writing. QUEEN OF KALAHARI and NOBLE MANNERS are listed as the main dangers. This trio should get us safely through to the last leg of our favourite wager if we were ‘live’ going in to the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last twenty years, whilst eleven market leaders snared toteplacepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous fourteen years was an 11/1 chance (2011) before last year’s 33/1 gold medallist prevailed.
4.45: GLITTERING JEWEL represents Charlie Appleby who was denied a 3/3 ratio at ‘headquarters’ by just a short head on the opening day of the season yesterday. There seems no obvious reason to desert the yard here in what might otherwise have been a teaser of a Placepot finale. The relevant damn is Bedazzle (granddaughter of Northern Dancer) who has serious winners in the US to her name. TRANQUIL STAR might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Three of the last five favourites secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Wednesday – followed by their record at the track yesterday + profit/losses on the day:
6 runners—Richard Hannon (0/2)
5—Charlie Appleby (2/3 – Profit of 9 points)
5—John Gosden (2/6 – Profit of 7 points)
4—Sir Michael Stoute (0/1)
4—James Tate (0/1)
3—Andrew Balding (1/4 – Profit of 4 points)
3—Simon Crisford (---)
3—Charlie Hills (0/5)
3—Mark Johnston (0/1)
3—Aidan O’Brien (---)
2—Charlie Fellowes (0/1)
2—Hugo Palmer (0/1)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Beverley: £227.00 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced
Cheltenham: £216.70 – 6 favourtes – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Sedgefield: £6,275.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
There was no meeting at Wolverhampton last year