BRIGHTON – APRIL 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £620.60 (8 favourites: 3 winners & 5 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (4.50): 7 (Swell Hill) & 1 (Charlie Beer Punt)
Leg 2 (5.20): 8 (Emperors Warrior), 10 (Honiton Lace) & 9 (Gulland Rock)
Leg 3 (5.50): 3 (Harlequin Striker), 5 (Pick A Little) & 6 (Perfect Alchemy)
Leg 4 (6.20): 12 (Knight Of The Air) & 9 (Golden Wedding)
Leg 5 (6.50): 2 (Rosie Royale) & 1 (Tommys Geal)
Leg 6 (7.30): 8 (Free To Roam), 4 (Fitzwilliam) & 1 (Angels Above)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
4.50: A watching brief for Spin Top must be the advice after Joseph Tuite's Acclamation colt hung violently left on his debut at Kempton. This left handed track should help, especially with horses either side of him upon stalls exit. Joseph's good juvenile record here at Brighton is another positive pointer but until we witness a 'normal' effort, the jury must remain 'out'. That leaves newcomers SWELL HILL, CHARLIE BEER PUNT and (possibly) RAFFLE KING to assess. At the time of writing, the three horses are listed in order of preference.
Two of the three favourites (winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions via two renewals thus far.
Trainer record with two-year-olds at Brighton during the last five years:
1/4--Tom Dascombe (Charlie Beer Punt)
4/24--Mick Channon (Raffle King)
1/13--Stan Moore (Sheila's Lad)
2/6--Joseph Tuite (Spin Top) - Joseph's only runner on the card (3/8 general record at Brighton last year)
0/3--Robert Cowell (Visionary)
0/9--Bill Turner (Bills Delight)
10/28--Richard Hannon (Swell Hill) - Richard's only runner on the card (3/17 last year at Brighton)
5.20: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 7-5 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (15 up for grabs) gained via five renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared four of the five contests to date. Both vintages have four representatives on this occasion, suggesting that the trend is around the 10/11 mark to be extended before the form book is taken into account. The last three winners have carried 8-13 or more to victory, as have ten of the twelve runners to have gained toteplacepot positions. EMPERORS WARRIOR and GAVARNIE ENCORE are the pick of the 'junior' raiders from my viewpoint, whilst the pair of five-year-olds which make some appeal are HONITON LACE and GULLAND ROCK, who sports a first time visor.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 11/4) winners.
Windsor record of course winners in the second race on the card:
5.50: I opted for last year's 8/1 winner (Ganymede) as one of two horses against the field, invariably opting for younger horses when assessing a poor race. The last three winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 which cuts the ten strong field in half, though I am a little troubled by having to leave PERFECT ALCHEMY out of the mix, especially as the hat trick seeker only sits sixteen ounces below the 'superior' weight barrier. Accordingly, I might try and resist my self-confessed anorak tendency on this occasion, adding PICK A LITTLE, HARLEQUIN STRIKER and OUTBACK RULER into the overnight equation.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished out with the washing thus far though to be entirely fair, two of the last three renewals were 'win only' events, whilst a 'short field' contested the race twelve months ago. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Windsor record of course winners in the third race:
3/9--Pick A Little (winner on this card last year)
2/9--Good Luck Charm
6.20: Desperately searching for an 'edge', I note that four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five contests. I fancy the chances of GOLDEN WEDDING and KNIGHT OF THE AIR from the four-year-olds on parade whilst Ravenous should represent the five-year-old vintage to decent effect. You will note however, that Ravenous is not listed in capital letters, confirming the opinion that it will be the turn of the four-year-old to succeed this time around. Silvestre De Sousa boasts a 20% strike rate when riding for Mick Channon in recent years, whereby KNIGHT OF THE AIR is marginally preferred to GOLDEN WEDDING who puts his unbeaten course and distance record at Brighton on the line, albeit after just the one assignment at the popular switchback track. Going back to the Channon/De Sousa stats, it's worth noting that pair have produced 20 points of level stake profits when teaming up during the last five years.
Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished in the frame (exact science) last year, whilst market leaders came to the gig on a hat trick. All that went pear shaped when the 2/1 favourite finished out of the frame.
Windsor record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/4--Freddy With A Y
6.50: I will stick to the same vintages as in the previous raceThe two five-year-olds should be led home by Honey Badger, though I definitely prefer the chances of both ROSIE ROYALE and TOMMYS GEAL on this occasion. Feeling the need to have more selections in other races, I am quietly confident that this pair of representatives will get us safely through to the toteplacepot finale if were are live going into this fifth leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via three renewals, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.
Windsor record of course winners in the fifth event:
7.20: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 via just the five renewals to date races to date. From a Placepot perspective, the 'juniors' lead the four-year-olds 7-3, the two vintages having secured all thirteen available positions between them. This is a poor contest (there is no disguising the fact) and my tentative toteplacepot trio against the field consists of FREE TO ROAM, FITZWILLIAM and ANGELS ABOVE, without having the faintest intention of having a bet from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2** & 11/10) winners, via five renewals of the toteplacepot finale.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Brighton card on Tuesday:
4--Jim Boyle (1/6 at Brighton last season)
4--John Bridger (5/33)
4--Mick Channon (4/20)
3--Sean Harris (0/1)
3--Michael Madgwick (1/9)
3--Gary Moore (4/39)
2--Michael Appleby (3/12)
2--Alan Bailey (0/3)
2--Paddy Butler (0/6)
2--Tony Carroll (6/33)
2--Lee Carter (1/4)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/1)
2--Dean Ivory (1/7)
2--Laura Mongan (1/9)
2--Stan Moore (2/5)
2--John O'Shea (--)
+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
77 declared runners
Placepot dividends from last year's corresponding meetings + trainer stats:
Kempton (A/W): Tuesday's meeting is a NH fixture
Ludlow: £21.30 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced) - 14/1 double for Kim Bailey
Wolves: £52.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
New meeting - Dividend details from latest meeting (April 9):
Sedgefield: £14.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Windsor overview (Trainers who saddles winners on the card last year with runners on Tuesday:
Michael Blake (7/2*) - 1 runner on Tuesday - Pick A Little (5.50 - winner on last year's card)
Eve Johnson-Houghton (8/1) - 1 runner - Golden Wedding (6.20)
Brendan Powell (3/1) - 1 runner - Uncle Dermot (6.20)