BRIGHTON – APRIL 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £233.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (4.50): 1 (Declaration Of Love) & 2 (Global Exceed)
Leg 2 (5.20): 4 (Fleeting Glimpse), 5 (Hidden Gem) & 3 (Sexton Blake)
Leg 3 (5.50): 1 (Coronation Day) & 4 (Ice Age)
Leg 4 (6.20): 2 (Pack It In), 4 (Roy Rocket) & 5 (Becca Campbell)
Leg 5 (6.55): 7 (How’s Lucy) & 8 (Latest Quest)
Leg 6 (7.25): 2 (Bloodsweatandtears), 4 (Magic Moments) & 5 (Live Dangerously)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stake
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
4.50: Beaten less than two lengths at Windsor at the first time of asking a fortnight ago, DECLARATION OF LOVE can score for Tom Clover in a race which should not prove difficult to win. For the uninitiated, Tom was assistant to David Simcock for six years, experience which should stand him in good stead for the future. Connections might have most to fear from GLOBAL EXCEED who represents the in-form yard of Ed Dunlop who had saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have claimed Placepot positions via three renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.
Record of trainers at Brighton during the last five years in the two-year-old sector:
No runners—Tom Clover (Declaration Of Love)
1/3—Ed Dunlop (Globe Exceed)
6/31—Mick Channon (Milton Road)
1/14—Stan Moore (My Guy & Controversial Lady)
1/9—Jo Hughes (Diamond Pirsuit)
5.20: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 9-6 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (18 up for grabs) gained via six renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared four of the five contests before last year which went the way of a five-year-old. It defies belief that there are no five-year-olds this time around, whilst the pick of the quartet of four-year-olds should prove to be HIDDEN GEM, SEXTON BLAKE and Andrew Balding’s recent Kempton winner FLEETING GLIMPSE.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/1, 7/2 & 11/4) winners.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/2—Virile (good to firm)
2/5—Indus Valley (good & good to firm)
2/8—Gypsy Rider (good to firm & firm)
5.50: Not the easiest ‘short field’ event to assess, with fitness having to be taken on trust relating to James Tate’s consistent inmate CORONATION DAY though if 95% fit for his first assignment for over six months, Martin Harley should be able to boot home another winner. Martin has only ridden more winners for Mick Channon that he has for James and even then, James would draw level on the 25 mark if the pair can team up successfully on Tuesday. It’s also worth pointing out that the bandwagon has produced over six points of level stake profits during the study period. ICE AGE is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year when the 7/2 market leader snared a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card.
1/1—Lyfka (good to firm)
1/2—Arlecchino’s Leap (good to firm)
1/4—Swiss Cross (good to firm)
6.20: The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones and I expect the trend to be extended, with PACK IT IN and course specialist ROY ROCKET having been declared in a ‘dead eight’ contest. That said, BECCA CAMPBELL also boasts some great course figures (see below) and running from just 16 ounces below the superior weight barrier, John Fahy’s mount should not be far away.
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three winners.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
5/12—Roy Rocket (3 x good to firm – good – good to soft)
3/5—Becca Campbell (3 x good)
2/12—Solveig’s Song (good to firm & good to soft)
1/9—Siouxperhero (good to firm)
1/4—Onehelluvatouch (good to firm)
6.55: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-2 via just the six renewals to date races to date whilst from a Placepot perspective, the 'juniors' lead the four-year-olds 9-4. This is a poor contest (there is no disguising the fact), with HOW’S LUCY and LATEST QUEST taken as the pick of the ‘younger set’, the pair being marginally preferred to the only course winner ETTIE HART.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (7/2**, 7/4 & 11/10) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/4—Ettie Hart (good to firm)
7.25: William Knight had won with three of his last eleven runners at the time of writing and BLOODSWEATANDTEARS can improve the ratio further still as dusk rolls in over the South Downs. Alan King will fancy his chances of saddling a winner on the level having declared MAGIC MOMENTS, whilst LIVE DANGEROUSLY completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.
Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders secured Placepot positions (no winners).
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
4/15—Bloodsweatandtears (2 x good – good to soft – soft)
1/3—Stormbound (good to firm)
2/6—Live Dangerously (good & good to soft)
1/17—Jonnie Skull (good to firm)
2/18—Lutine Charlie (good & firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Brighton card on Tuesday – followed by winning trainers at the track this season + starting prices after one meeting at Brighton:
3 runners—Mick Channon
3—Eve Johnson Houghton
2—Tony Carroll (1/2 @ 11/4)
1 runner for Philip Hide (1/3 @13/2)
+ 31 trainers who also each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hexham: 227.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Ludlow: £65.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £38.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
The Yarmouth meeting is a new fixture on the calendar