NOTTINGHAM – APRIL 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £413.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Naqd) & 8 (Siri)
Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Lulani), 3 (Belle Travers) & 7 (Mr Pickwick)
Leg 3 (3.05): 8 (Miss Van Gogh), 6 (Ghinia) & 3 (La Superba)
Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (The Black Princess) & 1 (Norse Magic)
Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (La Mortola) & 2 (Angel Face)
Leg 6 (4.45): 4 (Winter Spice), 3 (Perfect Summer) & 5 (Desdichado)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: This is not the strongest maiden ever staged at Nottingham by any means, whereby newcomers from strong yards cannot be discounted this side of midnight, namely NAQDY (William Haggas) and COMPAS SCOOBY (Roger Varian). The pair are listed in order of preference, with SIRI expected to lead home the horses with experience in the field. Mick Channon's Atlantic Sport filly has been beaten less than three lengths (in total) via two silver medal assignments thus far.
Favourite factor: Both (7/2 & 2/1) favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.
2.35: Five of the six available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1, via 59% of the total number of runners, statistics which include both (20/1 & 9/4*) winners. Roxie Lot and Arms Around Me (via a jockey claim) are eliminated from my thoughts accordingly, leaving yours truly to consider the merits of beaten favourites BELLE TRAVERS and MR PICKWICK alongside LULANI. Harry Dunlop saddles the latter named Royal Applause raider, the trainer having won with two of only five runners during the last fortnight at the time of writing. Harry comes into the race on a hat trick given that his last two runners won, having no entries on Monday as I write this column. Any rain could aid and abet the cause given that his only victory via five assignments to date was gained under soft conditions.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders have secured gold and bronze medals alongside toteplacepot positions to date.
3.05: MISS VAN GOGH is a dual soft ground winner whereby connections will be hoping that the forecast 'light showers' will be plentiful overnight and if that proves to be the case, Richard Fahey could be set to greet yet another winner with the yard having sent out plenty to gold medallists of late. That said, Richard's strike rate is rarely 'impressive' given the sheer number of horses that the trainer saddles, almost on an everyday basis. If the rain keeps clear of Colwick Park on Tuesday, GHINIA could be the answer to what would then be a difficult race to assess from my viewpoint. Another runner in the line up to benefit from some of the wet stuff is LA SUPERBA with Tom Marquand potentially reducing three pounds from the burden.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 5/4 favourite could only finish third in a four runner 'win only' event.
3.35: Jimmy Fortune was full of praise for John Gosden's THE BLACK PRINCESS when the Iffraj filly made short work of her Kempton rivals on debut. Entered up in both the Epsom Oaks and Royal Ascot's 'Coronation contest' (over a much shorter trip), connections are obviously still wondering what her ideal trip might be at this stage of her career. Either that, or John could just be waiting for this test to be passed before deciding whether she needs more time, possibly waiting for Royal Ascot if she proves up to winning this event on the bridal. Others to be considered from a 'forecast' perspective include NORSE MAGIC and LA CELEBS VILLE.
Favourite factor: This is a new race (two divisions) on the Nottingham card.
4.10: LA MORTOLA could win this second heat for John Gosden to 'double up' in the contest, connections possibly having most to fear from ANGEL FACE and ZEEHAN. To be truthful, The Black Princess (from the first race) would win this heat easier than the first division from my viewpont. ANGEL GRACE could become a serious threat to LA MORTOLA if the heavens opened I guess, though that seems unlikely to happen this time around.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.
Nottingham record of course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
4.45: Six of the nine horses to have secured toteplacepot positions to date carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did the three winners of the contest thus far. This hardly represents a trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed trio against the other nine runners hail from the 'superior' sector of the handicap, namely WINTER SPICE, PERFECT SUMMER and DESDICHADO. Ralph Beckett's latter named raider scored on heavy ground last year and connections might be grateful of the two pound drop by the official assessor here, if the rain (should it arrive at all) fail to get into the ground by the time the Placepot finale is contested. PADDYS RUNNER is added to the overnight mix despite Tom Marquand's allowance possibly dropping the Alan King raider below the 'superior' weight barrier. Then again, what are sixteen ounces between friends?
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far by winning their respective events at 3/1 and 5/4. The other gold medallist was returned at 11/4 with the 5/2 market leader finishing well in arrears.
Nottingham record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
Winter Spice: 1/4
Maoi Chinn Tire: 3/4
Hurry Home Poppa: 1/5
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Nottingham card on Tuesday:
4--Karl Burke (0/4 at Nottingham this season)
4--Richard Fahey (1/6 - 4/1 winner)
3--Michael Appleby (0/6)
3--Jonathan Portman (--)
2--Clive Cox (--)
2--James Given (0/2)
2--John Gosden (1/2 - 8/1 winner)
2--David Menusier (2/2 - winners at 14/1 & 9/1)
2--David O'Meara (--)
2--Pam Sly (1/1 - winner at 40/1)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
63 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends (and Trainer stats where relevant):
Bath: £49.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced) -
Mark Johnston: 21/1 double last year: 2 runners at Bath on Tuesday
Richard Hannon: 5/1 double last year: 4 runners at Bath on Tuesday
Brighton: £283.00 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Wolverhampton: £657.60 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Other meeting on Tuesday: Lingfield (A/W)
Two meetings this season
14 races - 16 races - 3 winners - 5 placed - 8 unplaced
Average Placepot dividend: £4,350.35