CATTERICK - AUGUST 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £45.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced - 1 Non runner) - 22/1 double for Michael Appleby last year - 3 runners on Tuesday
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick:
Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Glitter Girl) & 6 (Mere Brow)
Leg 2 (2.45): 4 (Brigadoon) & 3 (The Kid)
Leg 3 (3.15): 11 (Minty Jones), 13 (Tarnend Lass), 4 (Bahango) & 6 (Compton River)
Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Busy Street) & 9 (Tartan Bute)
Leg 5 (4.15): 1 (Van Gerwen), 2 (More Beau) & 3 (Danish Duke)
Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Monjeni) & 2 (Silver Shuffle)
Suggested stake: 192 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Catterick - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: William Haggas suggested long before the season started that GLITTER GIRL had the look of a decent filly and so it proved, especially at the second time of asking when scoring following a fine debut effort at 'headquarters'. I doubt that the small penalty incurred will make any difference to this result as Ben Curtis is surely booked aboard the winner this time around. MERE BROW is fancied to get the better of GOLCONDA PRINCE in what might prove to be a close duel to secure the silver medal.
Favourite factor: This is one of the 'new races' according to BHA guidelines though some of you might want to recall how previous races went relating to the opening juvenile event on the card. All 13 winners in recent times were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, statistics which included six successful market leaders. Five of the last seven favourites had obliged. Nine of the last 11 market leaders had secured toteplacepot positions though that said, the only favourites to miss out were returned at 4/11 & 4/5!
2.45: 10 of the last 12 winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which go against bottom weighted Gold Merlion on this occasion. If taking those stats as read, we are left with just four runners to asses, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be BRIGADOON and THE KID. Connections might have most to fear from CHANT at the top of the weights.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have secured seven of the last twelve contests during the last thirteen years, the other winners being sent off at just 2/1-4/1-9/2-5/1-13/2. 12 of the 13 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, the odd one out being one of the two 5/2 joint favourites back in 2007.
3.15: Ten of the last twelve gold medallists were burdened with 9-3 or less, stats which eliminate the top three horses in the handicap from a weight trend perspective. The merits of ten runners are left to peruse, which is a difficult task and as just five pounds separate the horses according to the official assessor. I'm opting for MINTY JONES, TARNEND LASS and BAHANGO at the overnight stage, with the reserve nomination being awarded to COMPTON RIVER, Brian Smart's recent good ground Beverley winner.
Favourite factor: Two of the last ten contests has gone the way of the favourite whilst five winners have been returned in double figures (ranging from 11/1 to 33/1) during the period. Six of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.
3.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last thirteen contests, though no relevant horses ran in last year's renewal. Alan Swinbank has saddled three of the last nine gold medallists in this contest (not represented last year - withdrawn favourite) whereby the chance of four-year-old stable representative BUSY STREET (Alan's only runner on the card) is fully respected. Neil Farley is the only jockey to have ridden BUSY STREET to victory to date via six assignments, and a repeat of his seventh placed effort (beaten as many lengths) at York on his penultimate start could suffice in this grade/company. The handicapper might have caught up with Ingleby Hollow now, whereby the three-year-old raiders TARTAN BUTE and PROJECT BLUEBOOK are expected to offer sterner challenges.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last ten renewals whilst the other events were won by horses sent off at 7/2 and 11/4, given that last year's 9/4 market leaders was withdrawn with time for a new market to be formed.
4.15: Nine of the eleven winners during the study period carried weights of 9-5 or more which brings in the the likes of VAN GERWEN, MORE BEAU and DANISH DUKE, though the official assessor might finally have got to grips with Ruth Carr's latter named representative from a win perspective. That said, Ruth's runners are going well whereby another Placepot 'success' cannot be ruled out of the overnight equation. The 6.7% strike rate (via two wins) of Bold Strike makes him a difficult (nigh impossible) horse to call.
Favourite factor: In contrast to the other races featured in Tuesday’s toteplacepot mix, favourites have a poor record as 11 races have been contested during the last 13 years during which time, successful market leaders were only conspicuous by their absence. That said, six of the last nine favourites have (at least) finished in the frame.
4.45: Regular readers will know that staying events on the flat are my least favourite races, purely because speed (the fundamental requirement of a thoroughbred) is only conspicuous by its absence in general terms. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that Phil Kirby's pair (either or perhaps both) could reward each way investors, namely ROCKY TWO and KEEP UP. More logical winners should emerge via the likes of MONJENI and SILVER SHUFFLE.
Favourite factor: This mixed vintage two mile contest was a new race on the Catterick card last year when the 2/1 favourite finished out of the money behind horses which filled the 'dead eight' frame at 12/1-7/2-7/2.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Tuesday:
5--Tim Easterby (2/25 at Catterick this season - winners at 5/1** & 15/8)
4--John Quinn (4/18 - winners at 7/2-9/4*-2/1-6/4*)
3--Michael Appleby (2/11 - winners at 8/1 & 3/1)
3--Ann Duffield (2/17 - winners at 13/2 & 6/1)
3--Richard Guest (0/6)
3--Micky Hammond (3/18 - winners at 20/1-7/1-9/2)
3--Ollie Pears (0/4)
2--Rebecca Bastiman (1/14 - winner at 11/2)
2--Roy Bowring (0/3)
2--Ruth Carr (1/14 - winner at 3/1)
2--Declan Carroll (1/10 - winner at 11/1)
2--John Davies (0/1)
2--Brian Ellison (2/14 - winners at 4/1 & 11/4*)
2--Les Eyre (0/5)
2--Richard Fahey (7/26 - Prices ranging between 2/5* & 18/1 - level profit stakes this season of 17 points)
2--Michael Herrington (0/2)
2--Mark Johnston (3/15 - winners at 6/4*-10/11*-4/9*)
2--Philip Kirby (1/18 - winner at 3/1)
2--David Loughnane (1/6 - winner at 11/8*)
2--David O'Meara (3/22 - winners at 3/1-11/4-15/8)
2--Kevin Ryan (2/17 - winners at 10/1 & 6/1)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £152.80 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced
Nottingham: £15.80 - 8 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Salisbury: £24.90 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced
Catterick overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant event at 2.15:
2/6--William Haggas (Glitter Girl)
22/64--Richard Fahey (Golconda Prince)
3/37--John Quinn (Mr Strutter)
4/56--Tim Easterby (Sheriff Garrett)
1/22--Ollie Pears (Dyna Might)
3/54--Ann Duffield (Mere Brow)
11/53--Mark Johnston (Miss Danby)