EPSOM - AUGUST 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £60.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Seaella), 8 (Lexington Grace) & 4 (Ruysch)
Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Lynwood Gold) & 6 (We Know)
Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Highland Acclaim), 2 (Reputation) & 1 (Coronation Day)
Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Coral Sea) & 8 (Favourite Royal)
Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Let’s Be Happy), 5 (Challow) & 6 (Ode To Glory)
Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Marrakib), 6 (Oh It’s Saucepot) & 8 (Av A Word)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: SEAELLA appears to be the safest option, especially from a Placepot perspective when so few horses are attracting money at the time of writing. I understand that potential investors could be sceptical of backing John Quinn’s raider from a win perspective given her defeat at odds of 4/5 last time out. That said, the memory of her York victory remains locked into what passes as a brain relating to this columnist and providing John’s Canford Cliffs filly handles the Epsom gradients, Jason Hart’s mount is taken to finish in the money at the very least. LEXINGTON GRACE and RUYSCH are others to consider.
Favourite factor: Two of the eight renewals to date have been won by favourites, whilst six of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1. The six beaten favourites all failed to secure toteplacepot positions.
2.35: LYNWOOD GOLD and WE KNOW were holding their positions in the market (as others drifted) as dawn broke over the city of Bristol this morning which I am taking as a positive factor in a race in which support for horses later this morning could dictate the way the race pans out. You have that advantage over yours truly of course, whereby I am leaving that scenario with you, suggesting that you keep your eyes peeled and act accordingly when contemplating your Placepot permutation leading up to the opening contest at 2.00. If you look at the ‘favourite factor’ below, you will appreciate my comments.
Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last thirteen years have scored at 9/1 or less, whilst five market leaders have prevailed during the study period.
3.10: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3 (top priced winner of 8/1) and the trio which make the most appeal via this year‘s six ‘qualifiers‘ are HIGHLAND ACCLAIM, REPUTATION and CORONATION DAY. The trio are listed in order of preference, given the course record of Highland Acclaim. With so few horses on the card having won here at Epsom, his 2/3 record at the track is a strong positive factor, especially as both victories have been gained under the same projected (good) ground conditions.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following eight renewals, whilst four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
2/3—Highland Acclaim (2 x good)
3.45: Three-year-olds have won all three renewals to date, with just two vintage representatives having been declared this time around, namely CORAL SEA and FAVOURITE ROYAL. I believe that the 10/3 quote this morning about CORAL SEA will remain in place throughout the day and should that be the case, we can remain optimistic about her Placepot claims. The 16/1 shout about FAVOURITE ROYAL is worth some (minimum stake) interest given that she has the look of a potential seven furlong specialist from my viewpoint, even though her lone victory to date was posted over an additional furlong. I’m hoping for a strong pace here which would bring about her best chance of rewarding win and place investors. FLYBOY is the fairly obvious alternative option I guess.
Favourite factor: The inaugural favourite finished third of seven in a 'short field' contest. The following 5/2 market leader fared a little better by finishing second in another short field contest before last year’s market leader duly obliged at odds of 11/4. New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to races with five/six/seven runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
1/1—Coral Sea (good to soft)
2/13—Swiss cross (2 x good)
4.20: Three-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals with vintage representatives around the 11/8 mark before the form book is consulted on this occasion. I have little (or no) hesitancy is offering up the trio against the remaining four contenders, listed in marginal order of preference as LET’S BE HAPPY, CHALLOW and ODE TO GLORY.
Favourite factor: A top priced winner of 7/1 has emerged via seven renewals thus far, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 4/9) market leaders.
4.50: Nine of the ten available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-5 or more and with David O’Meara back saddling winners on a fairly regular basis, MARRAKIB (subject of some support overnight – the only runner on the card to do so) is the win and place call. OH IT’S SAUCEPOT deserves her place at the head of the market as Chris Wall’s Sir Percy filly steps up in trip seeking her hat trick, whilst AV A WORD will not be on offer at 13/2 as the trade press quote indicated overnight. Coral have Daniel Kubler’s raider as short as 10/3, which suggests that the phones will be ring in Paddy Power offices both sides of the Irish Sea this morning, with their (each way) offer of 5/1 standing out from the crowd. I would suggest that an SP of around 4/1 will be returned - win, lose or draw.
Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/4—The Gay Cavalier (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Epsom card on Tuesday – followed by their recent ratios:
4 runners—Mick Channon (0/8 – Sunday/Monday)
4—Richard Fahey (2/7 yesterday)
3—Mark Johnston (0/9 – Sunday/Monday)
2—Ed Dunlop (0/21 since August 18)
2—Charlie Hills (1/22 since August 25)
2—Sylvester Kirk (1/17 since August 15)
2—David O’Meara (4/21 since August 26)
2—John Quinn (2/9 since August 25)
2—Mark Usher (1/9 since August 16)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ripon: £70.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Carlisle: £143.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Newton Abbot: £792.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced